Federal Newspoll: 55-45

The latest newspoll on Federal voting intentions has Labor leading the 2PP vote 55%-45% according to The Australian. While the figure is unchanged from the last poll both the PM and Opposition Leader have received higher apporval ratings than last time. Rudd is up 6 point to 56% while his dissatisfaction is down 5 points to 32%. Turnbull's satisfaction rating, in his first Newspoll has sky-rocketed 15 points to 50% compared to Dr Nelson's last result of 35%. Turnbull's dissatsifaction rating is 25%, down 17 points on Dr Nelson's last result of 42%.

In a follow up article The Australia revealed the primary vote results are Labor 41%, Coaliton 38% and the Greens on record 13%. The 13% for the Greens is the equal 2nd highest result for a third in newspoll history. The highest result for a 3rd party was 17% for the Democrats in March 1990.

Kevin Rudd leads the preferred PM rating 54%-26%

Snapshot
Primary Votes: Labor 41%, Coalition 38%, Greens 13%, Others/Undecided 8%
2PP: Labor 55%-45%
Satisfaction: Rudd 56%, Turnbull 50%
Dissatisfaction: Rudd 32%, turnbull 25%
Preferred PM: Rudd 54%, Turnbull 26%

Latest News Poll: ALP leads 47-42 on primaries.

The latest newspoll survey out today shows Labor still in a commanding. Leading 47-42 on primaries and 53-47 on 2PP. The Coalition looks like it's making slow, steady progress, the problem is they're getting these extra votes from minor parties, not Labor.

On to the 2PP, As Possum explains, using the 2004 distribution of preferences to work out the 2PP is a problem.

Yet what is peculiar here is how this plays out with the TPP numbers. As minor party voters have switched to the Coalition, the Coalition share of preference distributions of the remaining ‘others’ continues to increase. That’s the problem with using 2004 preference distributions, while they might generally get a pollster in the right ballbark figure on any given day within a few percent, they are usually wrong in terms of how the small compositional shifts (say 2-3%) between the voting support of all the parties plays out. Apparently, if we were to take these polls literally (which is a naughty thing that shouldn’t be done), 130 000 or so people changed their vote from the ALP to the Greens over the last week and none of them preferenced the ALP, even though greens prefs usually run about 75% to the ALP. That’s why the minor party noise does funny things to the TPP vote.

Galaxy Poll: 54-46

The latest Galaxy poll has Labor ahead 54-46 on a 2 party preferred basis.

Labor is leading the primary vote 45% to 37% with the Greens om 9%.

Poll data available here