Friday, December 7, 2007

Liberal Party's lead in McEwen down to 32 votes and more news from the close seats

The lead yesterday was 77 votes. The trend with postals and absentee votes (as I pointed out yesterday) is in Labor's favor.

Candidate Party Votes This Election (%) Last Election (%) Swing (%)
BAILEY, FranPrevious Member Liberal 48,286 50.02 56.42 -6.40
MITCHELL, Rob Australian Labor Party 48,254 49.98 43.58 +6.40

Meanwhile, the Labor party has made a slight comeback in Swan (.05%), Dickson (.01%) and increased their lead in Flynn by .03%. Solomon has remained steady.

The Liberal party has increased their lead in Bowman (.03%) and Herbert (.04%) and pegged back .05% off the Labor party lead in Robertson.

Latest figures
State Division Incumbent Party TCP % Swing % Counted %
QLD Flynn The Nationals 49.73 -7.99 94.93
WA Swan Australian Labor Party 49.81 -0.27 93.22
NT Solomon C.L.P. 49.81 -3.00 92.19
NSW Robertson Liberal 49.90 -6.97 95.74
VIC McEwen Liberal 50.02 -6.40 95.99
QLD Bowman Liberal 50.06 -8.84 95.35
QLD Dickson Liberal 50.13 -8.76 96.05
QLD Herbert Liberal 50.22 -6.02 94.11

Latest National Totals

Party Votes Percentage % Swing %
Liberal 4,442,213 36.31 -4.16
Australian Labor Party 5,309,411 43.39 +5.75
The Greens 945,736 7.73 +0.54
The Nationals 675,444 5.52 -0.37
Family First 243,093 1.99 -0.02
Democrats 87,642 0.72 -0.52
One Nation 32,202 0.26 -0.93
CDP Christian Party 103,468 0.85 +0.23
Citizens Electoral Council 27,242 0.22 -0.14
CLP - The Territory Party 40,230 0.33 -0.01
Socialist Alliance 9,896 0.08 -0.04
The Fishing Party 2,075 0.02 +0.00
DLP - Democratic Labor Party 5,592 0.05 +0.04
Climate Change Coalition 9,301 0.08 +0.08
Conservatives for Climate and Environment Incorporated 3,201 0.03 +0.03
Liberty and Democracy Party 16,837 0.14 +0.14
Non-Custodial Parents Party 792 0.01 +0.00
Socialist Equality Party 4,093 0.03 +0.03
What Women Want (Australia) 3,813 0.03 +0.03
Independent 272,241 2.22 -0.24
Non Affiliated 1,166 0.01 -0.02
.... 0 0.00 -0.40
FORMAL 12,235,688 96.09 +1.27
INFORMAL 497,627 3.91 -1.27
TOTAL 12,733,315 93.32

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Postal votes going the Coalitions way.

In the AEC "close seats" list the latest count shows that the Coalition is catching up in seats where it is behind and pulling away in seats where it is ahead. The count has only shifted .04% or so in each seat but it should be enough to see Swan fall to the Liberal party and to see them hold on to Herbert and Dickson. They have also now hit the front in Bowman. The only seat where the Liberal Party vote has dropped since my last post about the close seats is McEwen, from 50.08% to 50.04%, their lead in the seat is now just 77 votes.

State Division Incumbent Party TCP % Swing % Counted %
QLD Flynn The Nationals 49.70 -8.02 93.30
WA Swan Australian Labor Party 49.76 -0.32 92.43
NT Solomon C.L.P. 49.81 -3.00 92.18
NSW Robertson Liberal 49.85 -7.02 95.01
QLD Bowman Liberal 50.03 -8.87 95.06
VIC McEwen Liberal 50.04 -6.38 95.36
QLD Dickson Liberal 50.14 -8.75 95.91
QLD Herbert Liberal 50.18 -6.06 92.17

The new Coaliton shadow ministry

Julie Bishop - Shadow Minister for Employment, Business and Workplace Relations.

Senator Nick Minchin - Shadow Minister for Defence.

Senator Eric Abetz - Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research.

Malcolm Turnbull - Shadow Treasurer

Warren Truss - Shadow Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Local Government.

Senator Nigel Scullion - Shadow Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.

John Cobb - Shadow Minister for Regional Development and Water Security.

Andrew Robb - Shadow Foreign Minister.

Joe Hockey - Shadow Health Minister.

Peter Dutton - Shadow Finance Minister.

Ian MacFarlane - Shadow Trade Minister.

Tony Abbott - Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services, Indigenous Affairs and the Voluntary Sector.

Senator Chris Ellison - Shadow Minister for Immigration and Citizenship.

Senator Helen Coonan - Shadow Minister for Human Services.

Senator George Brandis - Shadow Attorney General.

Senator David Johnston - Shadow Minister for Resources and Energy and Tourism.

Tony Smith - Shadow Minister for Education, Apprenticeships and Training.

Bruce Billson - Shadow Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy.

Greg Hunt - Shadow Minister for Climate Change, Environment and Urban Water.

Outer Shadow Ministry.
Senator Michael Ronaldson - Shadow Special Minister of State.

Michael Keenan - Shadow Assistant Treasurer.

Steven Ciobo - Shadow Minister for Small Business, the Service Economy and Tourism.

Christopher Pyne - Shadow Minister for Justice and Border Protection.

Sharman Stone - Shadow Minister for Environment, Heritage, the Arts and Indigenous Affairs.

Bronwyn Bishop - Shadow Veterans Affairs Minister.

Luke Hartsuyker - Shadow Minister for Business Development, Independent Contractors and Consumer Affairs.

Bob Baldwin - Shadow Minister for Defence Science, Personnel and Assisting Defence.

Andrew Southcott - Shadow Minister for Employment Participation and Apprenticeships and Training.

Margaret May - Shadow Minister for Ageing.

Sussan Ley - Shadow Minister for Housing, Status of Women.

Pat Farmer - Shadow Minister for Youth and Sport.


Parliamentary Secretaries

Don Randall - Assisting Leader of the Opposition and shadow cabinet secretary

Senator Ian Macdonald - Assisting the Leader of the Opposition, Northern Australia

Senator Richard Colbeck - Health

Senator Brett Mason - Education

Peter Lindsay - Defence

Barry Haase - Infrastructure, Roads and Transport

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

La Trobe taken off the AEC's close seats list

Looks like it is now a Liberal hold with postal votes seeing the incumbent Jason Wood just hold on with 50.54% of the 2PP vote.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party now leads Swan by 32 votes.

The new leaders of the Liberal and National parties

Liberals:
Leader - Dr Brendan Nelson.
49 years old.
Tasmanian state president of the Australian Medical Association 1990 -1992
Federal president of the AMA 1993-1995
Labor party member 1988 - 1993/4
Member for Bradfield since 1996
Minister for Education, Science and Training 2001-2006
Minister for Defence 2006-2007

Deputy Leader - Julie Bishop.
51 years old.
Member for Curtin since 1998
Minister for Ageing 2003-2006
Minister for Education, Science and Training and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women's Issues 2006-2007

Nationals
Leader - Warren Truss
59 years old
Member for Wide Bay since 1990
Minister for Customs and Consumer Affairs 1997-98
Minister for Community Services 1998-99
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry 1999-2005
Minister for Transport and Regional Services 2005-2006
Minister for Trade 2006-2007

Deputy Leader - Nigel Scullion
51 years old
NT Senator since 2001 (Country Liberal Party, sits with the Nationals in the senate)
Minister for Community Services 2007-2007

Monday, December 3, 2007

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Seats that are still in doubt

State Division Incumbent Party TCP % Swing % Counted %
QLD Flynn The Nationals 49.56 -8.16 85.83
NT Solomon C.L.P. 49.73 -3.08 85.96
WA Swan Australian Labor Party 49.83 -0.25 88.94
NSW Robertson Liberal 49.83 -7.04 90.75
QLD Bowman Liberal 49.92 -8.98 89.45
QLD Herbert Liberal 50.04 -6.20 89.91
QLD Dickson Liberal 50.07 -8.82 93.56
VIC McEwen Liberal 50.08 -6.34 88.25
VIC La Trobe Liberal 50.34 -5.49 88.62

Ticehurst ads still up in Dobell

Ken Ticehurst must have not seen or done any internal polling and thought he would hold his Central Coast seat of Dobell. I was up there visiting relatives and driving to Wyong station today there was still a huge "Ken Ticehurst Liberal MP for Dobell" billboard on one of the mian roads. There was also a similar ad still up at a bus stop in Kanwal.

Labor's Cabinet

  • Kevin Rudd, MP: Prime Minister
  • Julia Gillard, MP: Deputy Prime Minister; Minister for Education; Employment and Workplace Relations
  • Wayne Swan, MP: Treasurer
  • Lindsay Tanner, MP: Minister for Finance and Business Deregulation
  • Peter Garrett, MP: Minister for the Environment, Heritage and the Arts
  • Senator Penny Wong: Minister for Climate Change and Water
  • Anthony Albanese, MP: Minister for Infrastructure, Transport; Regional Development and Local Government
  • Senator Kim Carr: Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research
  • Martin Ferguson, MP: Minister for Resources, Energy and Tourism
  • Tony Burke, MP: Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
  • Simon Crean, MP: Minister for Trade
  • Nicola Roxon, MP: Minister for Health and Ageing
  • Jenny Macklin, MP: Minister for Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
  • Stephen Smith, MP: Minister for Foreign Affairs; Minister for Western Australia
  • Joel Fitzgibbon, MP: Minister for Defence
  • Robert McClelland, MP: Attorney-General
  • Senator Chris Evans: Minister for Immigration and Citizenship
  • Senator Stephen Conroy: Minister for Communications, Broadband and Digital Economy
  • Senator John Faulkner: Cabinet Secretary; Special Minister of State

Outer Ministry:

  • Senator Nick Sherry: Minister for Superannuation and Corporate Law
  • Craig Emerson, MP: Minister for Small Business, Independent Contractors and the Service Economy, Minister assisting the Finance Minister on Business Deregulation
  • Brendan O'Connor, MP: Minister for Workplace Participation
  • Tanya Plibersek, MP: Minister for Housing and the Status of Women
  • Senator Joe Ludwig: Minister for Human Services, Manager of Government Business in the Senate
  • Bob Debus, MP: Minister for Home Affairs
  • Alan Griffin, MP: Minister for Veterans' Affairs
  • Warren Snowdon, MP: Minister for Defence Science and Personnel
  • Justine Elliot, MP: Minister for Ageing
  • Kate Ellis, MP: Minister for Youth and Sport
  • Chris Bowen, MP: Assistant Treasurer, Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs

Parliamentary Secretaries

  • Maxine McKew, MP: Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Early Childhood Education and Childcare
  • Anthony Byrne, MP: Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
  • Greg Combet, MP: Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Defence
  • Mike Kelly, MP: Parliamentary Secretary for Defence
  • Gary Gray, MP: Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Infrastructure with responsibility for Northern and Regional Australia
  • Bill Shorten, MP: Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
  • Bob McMullan, MP: Parliamentary Secretary responsible for International Development Assistance
  • Duncan Kerr, MP: Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Relations
  • Laurie Ferguson, MP: Parliamentary Secretary for Multicultural Affairs and Settlement Programs
  • Senator Ursula Stephens: Parliamentary Secretary for Social Inclusion
  • John Murphy, MP: Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Trade

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