Chifley Booth Results - Some massive swings against ALP

Here is a chart with the Chifley booth results showing the Greens vote and swings for ALP, LIB and Greens for every booth (except small booths)

(click for bigger)

Senate observations.

             This post will be updated from time to time with observations about Senate results.

Victoria - With almost 80% of the vote counted, the ABC is still predicting the DLP to win the 6th spot. Richard Di Natale is currently leading the below-the-line by a fair margin. Fiona Patten of the Sex Party is 4th. (Note: The apportionment of below-the-line and ticket votes still has a fair way to go so these results may change)

Tasmania - Count and apportionment almost completed. Christine Milne leads the below-the-line vote by a mile. She has received she has 3.46% of overall senate vote just in below-the-line votes. To put it another way she has 32.8% of below-the-line votes cast. The Liberal Party's 3rd candidate (Guy Barnett) is currently leading their 2nd (Shane Parry) candidate in below the line votes by a fair margin.

NSW - Still a bit of counting/apportionment to do. Lee Rhiannon currently leading below-the-line votes.

At the moment the lead Greens candidate is leading the below-the-line vote in every single Senate contest where below-the-line votes have started being added to the results. (Some results are start of apportionment of ticket/below-the-line, others are almost done)

Most marginal seats post-election.

At the moment it's looking like the most marginal seats in the country will now be the following

 FINAL FIGURES

Updated 10:30am 17/09/10

Seat - Party - Margin
Corangamite  - ALP - 0.41%
Hasluck - LIB - 0.57%
Boothby - LIB - 0.75%
Greenway - ALP - 0.87%
LaTrobe - LAB -  0.91%

Informals - highest and lowest

Seats with highest  and lowest rate of informal votes. An informal vote is a vote which is not counted. Votes are declared informal for a number of reasons like a blank ballot or being incorrectly filled out

Highest
Blaxland - 14.25% (+5.38%)
Watson -  13.56% (+4.47%)
Fowler - 12.97% (+4.49%)
Chifley - 11.28% (+3.37%)
McMahon - 11.01% (+3.41%)

Lowest
Ryan - 2.8% (+0.80%)
Kooyong - 2.84% (+0.74%)
Higgins - 2.84% (+0.27%)
Curtin - 2.87% (+0.81%)
Goldstein - 3.03 (+0.61)

The informal rate was up in every seat except 2, Wentworth where is was down 0.47% to 4.43% and Lyne where is was down 1.36% to 3.67%

Various stats from AusVotes 2010

Back from my hiatus as a candidate instead of watcher. We all know it's a hung parliament so the following posts will contain various statistics like National 2 party preferred, state-by-state 2PP, seats with highest and lowest rate of informal votes and more.

Federal Election Preview: Bonner

Preview by Anonymous

History

The division of Bonner was created for the 2004 federal election and named after Neville Bonner, the first Aborigine to serve in the Australian Parliament, serving as a liberal Senator for Queensland.

Notionally Labor for the 2004 election, it was won by a slim margin by Ross Vasta of the Liberal Party, with a TPP margin of 50.5% to 49.5%. The 2007 election saw Vasta lose the seat to the ALP’s Kerry Rea after a 5% swing took the ALP TPP vote to 54.5%.

2007 Results

Candidate	Party	Vote %	Swing %
Kerry Rea	ALP	48.80	+6.05
Ross Vasta	Liberal	41.91	-2.22
David Wyatt	Greens	4.90	-0.03
Stephen Gellaly	FF	1.93	-.243
Shane Boese	Fishing Party	1.21	NEW
Vicki Stocks	Democrats	1.00	-0.40
Lisa Charles	Liberty and Democracy	0.25	NEW

Localities
Bonner is a diverse electorate located in southeast Brisbane spanning from Mt Gravatt to Moreton Island in the bay. It includes the working class suburbs near Brisbane Port, acreage in suburbs such as Gumdale and Chandler and many middle class suburbs such as Belmont, Carindale and Wishart.

The main suburbs include Belmont, Burbank, Capalaba West, Carindale, Chandler, Gumdale, Hemmant, Lota, Lytton, Manly, Manly West, Mansfield, Moreton Island, Mount Gravatt, Ransome, Rochedale, Tingalpa, Upper Mt Gravatt, Wakerley, Wishart, Wynnum, Wynnum West and parts of Cannon Hill, Carina, Eight Mile Plains, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mackenzie, Mount Gravatt East and Murarrie.

Candidates

In 2007 Rea was one of the many ALP candidates across the nation that ran a campaign off the back of the Kevin07 brand. With Rudd having been removed from the office of Prime Minister, Rea will suffer from not having created a profile for herself in the electorate. She also lives in the furthest corner of the neighboring electorate, Griffith.

Ross Vasta will be having a second tilt at federal politics for the LNP. Although he was only the member for one term he has a strong local profile and has so far been running his campaign on federal issues such as debt, broken promises and waste and mismanagement.

The Greens are yet to announce a candidate for Bonner, however having only polled 4.9% in 2007 as opposed to 7.8% nationally I doubt they will be able to make inroads in a seat such as Bonner.

Prediction

Whilst Gillard will increase the ALP vote in inner-city areas Bonner, which has been referred to as the ‘Bible Belt’ in the past will be an electorate where her policies, including her admission of being an atheist, could harm the ALP’s chances.

Despite Rae’s lack of profile in the electorate and Gillard being more leftwing than Rudd, I would expect the ALP to hold Bonner, albeit with a swing against.


Paul's Prediction: ALP to just hold in a tight contest.

Federal Election Preview: Chifley

Preview by me. (Declaration: I know both the ALP and Greens candidates so I'll be sure to keep my preview balanced)

History
Chifley was created in 1969 and is named after former Prime Minister Ben Chifley. Chifley has always been a safe Labor seat with the lowest 2PP margin being 12.98% at the 2004 election. Roger Price is retiring this year after being the member for 26 years.
2007 Results                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Candidate	Party	Vote %	Swing %
Roger Price	ALP	64.19	+10.12
Jess Diaz	Liberals	23.76	-6.62
John Forrester	Greens	3.61	-1.66
Dave Vincent	CDP	3.42	+1.21
Louise Kedwell	One Nation	1.47	-0.53
James Cogan	Socialist Equity	1.33	NEW
Evan Jewell	FF	1.26	-0.24
Wayne Hyland	IND	0.60	-0.24
Amarjit Tanda	IND	0.36	NEW

2PP
70.66%-29.34% Swing: 8.69%

Localities
Arndell Park,  Bidwill, Blackett,  Colebee,  Dean Park,  Dharruk,  Doonside,  Emerton,  Glendenning,  Hassall Grove, Hebersham,  Huntingwood,  Lethbridge Park,  Marayong,  Minchinbury,  Mount Druitt, Oakhurst,  Plumpton,  Rooty Hill,  Ropes Crossing,  Shalvey,  Shanes Park,  Tregear,  Whalan, Willmot,  Woodcroft  and  parts of  Eastern Creek, Blacktown, Quakers Hill, Schofields and Riverstone

Candidates
With Roger Price retiring the ALP has selected union official Ed Husic. Ed ran in Greenway in 2004 and was the victim of a Liberal Party flyer distribution similar to the 2007 Lindsay one. Despite it not coming out that the flyer was a fake Ed missed out on winning the seat by just 0.5%

Though it is STILL not official the Liberals are running David Barker. Barker is the son of Blacktown City councillor Jacqueline Donaldson who is part of the campaign to restore bus services the locals have been campaigning for.

Greens - Debbie Robertson has lived in the Mt Druitt area for over 20 years and has been a carer for 3 disabled sons for most of that time. She is a very active campaigner in the local community and is convenor of the Blacktown Greens.

No other candidates yet.

Prediction
Ed Husic will romp in. Chifley has always been and probably will always be a safe Labor seat.

Federal Election Preview: North Sydney

Preview by Seamus Lee - @teenman

History

North Sydney has been for a long time a Liberal held seat. The only times in which it hasn't been held by a Liberal politician is when Ted Mack held the seat from as an Independent 1990 to 1996.

 2007 Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Candidate	Party	Vote %	Swing %
Kundan Misra	Citizens Electoral Council	0.29	NEW
Arie Baalbergen	CDP	0.73	NEW
Marcus Aussie-Stone	IND	0.62	NEW
Joe Hockey	LP	51.81	-4.42
Ted Nixon	Greens	9.21	-3.12
Barry Thompson	Climate Change Coalition	1.31	NEW
John Caferatta	FF	0.41	+0.39
Mike Bailey	ALP	32.62	+8.35

2PP
55.38%- 44.62% Swing - 4.66%

Localities

Artarmon, Cremorne, Cammeray, Castle Cove, CastleCrag, Chatswood, Chatswood West, Crows Nest, Gladesville, Gore Hill, Greenwich, Henley, Hunters Hill, Huntleys Point, Kirribilli, Lane Cove, Lane Cove North, Lane Cove West, Lavender Bay, Linley Point, Longueville, McMahons Point, Milsons Point, Monash Park, Naremburn, , North Sydney, North Willoughbym Northbridge, Northwood, Riverview, St Leonards,  Waverton, willoughby, Willoughby east, Wollstonecraft, Woolwich

With the redistributions the seat of North Sydney has moved slightly west and bit north

Candidates

Joe Hockey - Joe has lived in sydney all his life and has been a long serving member of parliament. Has been the minister for Financial Services and Regulation, Small Business and Tourism, Human Services, employment and workplace relations during his  14 years in parliament. He has been president of the young liberals in NSW.

Andrew Robjones - Has been in the area for a number of years and works in North Ryde and is the Deputy Mayor of North Sydney council. He is an active member of the greens.

Key Issues: Reducing the noise from the freeway. Andrew is in support for the RTA to construct noice protection walls to reduce the noise around the Warringah Freeway

                   The greeens also support reducing developer donations. This is becuase there are developments being planned around the areas in North    

                   Sydney and the developers seem to be getting their way in relation to negotiations with councils

There will be more to come as with all the other candidates

Leta Webb - She lives in Milsons Pont and is a lecturer in envionmental law. She has sworked as director of responsible planning and environment at both Ku-ring-gai and leichhardt councils. She also worked as the executive director for the shore regional orgainsation of councils.

Key Issues: Development of renewable energy and energy incentives

                  Intergrate sustainable development principals into urban and economic planning.

                  Health and hospital reform

                  Protection of the harbour foreshores

                  More affordable housing

No other candidates announced as of yet.

Prediction

Joe Hockey should return the seat. However if the Greens are able to run a successful it may mean that Joe Hockey could be pushed to hold the seat on preferences. With more of Chatswood being included in the seat the greens vote should increase. Labor will struggle to hold onto the gains made in 2007 becuase they don't have the star factor of Mike Bailey and Kevin Rudd 

Paul's Prediction: Easy Lib hold. Increase in primary vote for The Greens and Liberals. 

Federal Election Preview: Werriwa

Preview by @coldsnacks
History 
An original Federation electorate, Werriwa has mainly been held by Labor, and is considered a safe Labor seat. Former seat of former Labor leader Mark Latham and former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.
2007 Results
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Candidate	Party	Vote %	Swing %
Rachel Elliot	Liberals	30.17	-7.44
Chris Hayes	ALP	58.83	+8.92
Neerav Bhaat	Greens	3.79	+0.07
Joe Bryant	IND	2.53	NEW
Andrew Mills	Family First	2.41	+2.00
Hany Gayed	CDP	2.28	+1.90

2PP
65.24%-34.76% - Swing 8.3%
Localities
Austral, West Hoxton, Prestons, Lurnea and parts of Liverpool in the north, to Claymore and Minto Heights in the south, bounded by the Georges River to the east and generally by the Sydney Water Supply Channel, Raby Road, Rileys Creek, Anthony Road, Barry Avenue and Allenby Road to the west. The main suburbs include Austral, Bardia, Bow Bowing, Casula, Claymore, Denham Court, Edmondson Park, Eschol Park, Glenfield, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park, Ingleburn, Leppington, Lurnea, Macquarie Fields, Minto, Minto Heights, Prestons, Raby, St Andrews, Varroville, and parts of Liverpool, Leumeah and West Hoxton.

Candidates
Laurie Ferguson (current MP for  Reid and Parliamentary Secretary) - Sitting MP Chris Hayes has been moved to Fowler, despite protests from the community, to accommodate Ferguson who is a favourite of Julia Gillard.
No other candidates have been announced but it is expected that the Liberal Party will again go with Rachel Elliot.

Prediction
Even with the electoral redistribution (Werriwa now contains Austral, from Fowler, losing parts of Camden to Macarthur) and the initial community anger over a candidate being parachuted in at the expense of the sitting member, it is unlikely that the Liberals would be able to capture a large enough swing to win the seat.
Labor to comfortably hold.  Slight swing to the Liberals (between 2 and 5%)
Paul's Prediction - Easy Labor hold.

Federal Election Seat Previews.

Over the next few days/weeks I will be posting seat previews for the upcoming Federal Election. all previews have been done by people who live in the seat. The majority of the preview will be by the original author, I may edit a few things for formatting purposes or add/subtract things for length. If you would like to do one for your seat email it to me - ausvotes(at)gmail(dot)com