| Seat | 2CP | 2CP% | Notional 2PP | Notional 2PP % |
| Batman | ALP v Greens | 57.88-42.12 | ALP v LIB | 74.91-25.09 |
| Denison | ALP v Wilkie | 51.21-48.79 | ALP v LIB | 65.82-34.18 |
| Grayndler | ALP v Greens | 54.21-45.79 | ALP v LIB | 70.63-29.37 |
| Kennedy | LNP v Katter | 68.34-31.66 | ALP v LNP | |
| Lyne | NAT v Oakeshott | 62.73-37.27 | ALP v NAT | 62.45-37.55 |
| Melbourne | ALP v Greens | 56.10-43.90 | ALP v LIB | 73.30-26.70 |
| New England | NAT v Windsor | 71.51-28.49 | ALP v NAT | |
| O'Connor | LIB v NAT | 53.56-46.44 | ALP v LIB |
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
2PP counts in "non-classic" seats.
The AEC is doing 2PP counts in seats where the last 2 remaining candidates count did not end up ALP v Coalition. This is to for information purposes only and to help with the national 2PP figure. These counts won't change any seat but it's interesting to see what would have happened if these seats ended up ALP v Coalition. The seats they are re-counting are Batman, Denison, Grayndler, Kennedy, Lyne, New England, Melbourne and O'Connor. This post will be updated as the AEC updates.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Gillard's New Ministry
| Cabinet Ministers | |
| Julia Gillard | Prime Minister |
| Wayne Swan | Deputy Prime Minister Treasurer |
| Kevin Rudd | Minister for Foreign Affairs |
| Chris Evans | Minister for Jobs, Skills and Workplace Relations |
| Simon Crean | Minister for Regional Australia, Regional Development and Local Government Minister for the Arts |
| Stephen Smith | Minister for Defence |
| Nicola Roxon | Minister for Health and Ageing |
| Jenny Macklin | Minister for Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs |
| Anthony Albanese | Minister for Infrastructure and Transport |
| Stephen Conroy | Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy Minister Assisting the Prime Minister on Digital Productivity |
| Kim Carr | Minister for Innovation, Industry and Science |
| Penny Wong | Minister for Finance and Deregulation |
| Peter Garrett | Minister for Schools, Early Childhood and Youth |
| Robert McClelland | Attorney-General |
| Joseph Ludwig | Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry |
| Tony Burke | Minister for Sustainable Population, Communities, Environment and Water |
| Martin Ferguson | Minister for Resources, Energy and Tourism |
| Chris Bowen | Minister for Immigration and Citizenship |
| Craig Emerson | Minister for Trade |
| Greg Combet | Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency |
| Ministers | |
| Tanya Plibersek | Minister for Human Services Minister for Social Inclusion |
| Brendan O’Connor | Minister for Home Affairs and Justice Minister for Privacy and FOI |
| Kate Ellis | Minister for Employment Participation and Childcare |
| Mark Arbib | Minister for Indigenous Employment and Economic Development Minister for Sport Minister for Social Housing and Homelessness |
| Nick Sherry | Minister for Small Business Minister Assisting the Minister for Tourism |
| Warren Snowdon | Minister for Veterans’ Affairs and Defence Science and Personnel |
| Bill Shorten | Assistant Treasurer Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation |
| Mark Butler | Minister for Mental Health and Ageing |
| Gary Gray | Special Minister of State |
| Jason Clare | Minister for Defence Materiel |
| Parliamentary Secretaries | |
| David Bradbury | Treasury |
| Jacinta Collins | Education, Employment and Workplace Relations |
| Julie Collins | Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs |
| Mark Dreyfus | Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Cabinet Secretary |
| Justine Elliot | Foreign Affairs and Trade |
| Don Farrell | Sustainable Population, Communities, Environment and Water |
| David Feeney | Defence |
| Mike Kelly | Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry |
| Catherine King | Health and Ageing Infrastructure and Transport |
| Kate Lundy | Immigration and Citizenship Prime Minister and Cabinet |
| Richard Marles | Foreign Affairs and Trade |
| Jan McLucas | Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs |
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Breaking News: Gillard to form government
In a press conrence just given by Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor both Independents have announced that will vote with labor to form governement. Tony Windsor said the NBN and Climate Change were the 2 biggest issues that made his decision. Rob Oakeshott spoke for 20 minutes and said basically every single issue anyone could think of helped him make his decision
Earlier in the day Bob Katter announced he would support the Coalition.
Earlier in the day Bob Katter announced he would support the Coalition.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Greenway booth swings.
Same as last post. Swings here aren't as big across the board but there a couple of big swings.
(click for bigger)
(click for bigger)
Chifley Booth Results - Some massive swings against ALP
Here is a chart with the Chifley booth results showing the Greens vote and swings for ALP, LIB and Greens for every booth (except small booths)
(click for bigger)
(click for bigger)
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Senate observations.
This post will be updated from time to time with observations about Senate results.
Victoria - With almost 80% of the vote counted, the ABC is still predicting the DLP to win the 6th spot. Richard Di Natale is currently leading the below-the-line by a fair margin. Fiona Patten of the Sex Party is 4th. (Note: The apportionment of below-the-line and ticket votes still has a fair way to go so these results may change)
Tasmania - Count and apportionment almost completed. Christine Milne leads the below-the-line vote by a mile. She has received she has 3.46% of overall senate vote just in below-the-line votes. To put it another way she has 32.8% of below-the-line votes cast. The Liberal Party's 3rd candidate (Guy Barnett) is currently leading their 2nd (Shane Parry) candidate in below the line votes by a fair margin.
NSW - Still a bit of counting/apportionment to do. Lee Rhiannon currently leading below-the-line votes.
At the moment the lead Greens candidate is leading the below-the-line vote in every single Senate contest where below-the-line votes have started being added to the results. (Some results are start of apportionment of ticket/below-the-line, others are almost done)
Victoria - With almost 80% of the vote counted, the ABC is still predicting the DLP to win the 6th spot. Richard Di Natale is currently leading the below-the-line by a fair margin. Fiona Patten of the Sex Party is 4th. (Note: The apportionment of below-the-line and ticket votes still has a fair way to go so these results may change)
Tasmania - Count and apportionment almost completed. Christine Milne leads the below-the-line vote by a mile. She has received she has 3.46% of overall senate vote just in below-the-line votes. To put it another way she has 32.8% of below-the-line votes cast. The Liberal Party's 3rd candidate (Guy Barnett) is currently leading their 2nd (Shane Parry) candidate in below the line votes by a fair margin.
NSW - Still a bit of counting/apportionment to do. Lee Rhiannon currently leading below-the-line votes.
At the moment the lead Greens candidate is leading the below-the-line vote in every single Senate contest where below-the-line votes have started being added to the results. (Some results are start of apportionment of ticket/below-the-line, others are almost done)
Friday, August 27, 2010
Most marginal seats post-election.
At the moment it's looking like the most marginal seats in the country will now be the following
FINAL FIGURES
Updated 10:30am 17/09/10
Seat - Party - Margin
Corangamite - ALP - 0.41%
Hasluck - LIB - 0.57%
Boothby - LIB - 0.75%
Greenway - ALP - 0.87%
LaTrobe - LAB - 0.91%
FINAL FIGURES
Updated 10:30am 17/09/10
Seat - Party - Margin
Corangamite - ALP - 0.41%
Hasluck - LIB - 0.57%
Boothby - LIB - 0.75%
Greenway - ALP - 0.87%
LaTrobe - LAB - 0.91%
Informals - highest and lowest
Seats with highest and lowest rate of informal votes. An informal vote is a vote which is not counted. Votes are declared informal for a number of reasons like a blank ballot or being incorrectly filled out
Highest
Blaxland - 14.25% (+5.38%)
Watson - 13.56% (+4.47%)
Fowler - 12.97% (+4.49%)
Chifley - 11.28% (+3.37%)
McMahon - 11.01% (+3.41%)
Lowest
Ryan - 2.8% (+0.80%)
Kooyong - 2.84% (+0.74%)
Higgins - 2.84% (+0.27%)
Curtin - 2.87% (+0.81%)
Goldstein - 3.03 (+0.61)
The informal rate was up in every seat except 2, Wentworth where is was down 0.47% to 4.43% and Lyne where is was down 1.36% to 3.67%
Highest
Blaxland - 14.25% (+5.38%)
Watson - 13.56% (+4.47%)
Fowler - 12.97% (+4.49%)
Chifley - 11.28% (+3.37%)
McMahon - 11.01% (+3.41%)
Lowest
Ryan - 2.8% (+0.80%)
Kooyong - 2.84% (+0.74%)
Higgins - 2.84% (+0.27%)
Curtin - 2.87% (+0.81%)
Goldstein - 3.03 (+0.61)
The informal rate was up in every seat except 2, Wentworth where is was down 0.47% to 4.43% and Lyne where is was down 1.36% to 3.67%
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Various stats from AusVotes 2010
Back from my hiatus as a candidate instead of watcher. We all know it's a hung parliament so the following posts will contain various statistics like National 2 party preferred, state-by-state 2PP, seats with highest and lowest rate of informal votes and more.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Federal Election Preview: Bonner
Preview by Anonymous
History
The division of Bonner was created for the 2004 federal election and named after Neville Bonner, the first Aborigine to serve in the Australian Parliament, serving as a liberal Senator for Queensland.
Notionally Labor for the 2004 election, it was won by a slim margin by Ross Vasta of the Liberal Party, with a TPP margin of 50.5% to 49.5%. The 2007 election saw Vasta lose the seat to the ALP’s Kerry Rea after a 5% swing took the ALP TPP vote to 54.5%.
2007 Results
Localities
Bonner is a diverse electorate located in southeast Brisbane spanning from Mt Gravatt to Moreton Island in the bay. It includes the working class suburbs near Brisbane Port, acreage in suburbs such as Gumdale and Chandler and many middle class suburbs such as Belmont, Carindale and Wishart.
The main suburbs include Belmont, Burbank, Capalaba West, Carindale, Chandler, Gumdale, Hemmant, Lota, Lytton, Manly, Manly West, Mansfield, Moreton Island, Mount Gravatt, Ransome, Rochedale, Tingalpa, Upper Mt Gravatt, Wakerley, Wishart, Wynnum, Wynnum West and parts of Cannon Hill, Carina, Eight Mile Plains, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mackenzie, Mount Gravatt East and Murarrie.
Candidates
In 2007 Rea was one of the many ALP candidates across the nation that ran a campaign off the back of the Kevin07 brand. With Rudd having been removed from the office of Prime Minister, Rea will suffer from not having created a profile for herself in the electorate. She also lives in the furthest corner of the neighboring electorate, Griffith.
Ross Vasta will be having a second tilt at federal politics for the LNP. Although he was only the member for one term he has a strong local profile and has so far been running his campaign on federal issues such as debt, broken promises and waste and mismanagement.
The Greens are yet to announce a candidate for Bonner, however having only polled 4.9% in 2007 as opposed to 7.8% nationally I doubt they will be able to make inroads in a seat such as Bonner.
Prediction
Whilst Gillard will increase the ALP vote in inner-city areas Bonner, which has been referred to as the ‘Bible Belt’ in the past will be an electorate where her policies, including her admission of being an atheist, could harm the ALP’s chances.
Despite Rae’s lack of profile in the electorate and Gillard being more leftwing than Rudd, I would expect the ALP to hold Bonner, albeit with a swing against.
Paul's Prediction: ALP to just hold in a tight contest.
History
The division of Bonner was created for the 2004 federal election and named after Neville Bonner, the first Aborigine to serve in the Australian Parliament, serving as a liberal Senator for Queensland.
Notionally Labor for the 2004 election, it was won by a slim margin by Ross Vasta of the Liberal Party, with a TPP margin of 50.5% to 49.5%. The 2007 election saw Vasta lose the seat to the ALP’s Kerry Rea after a 5% swing took the ALP TPP vote to 54.5%.
2007 Results
| Candidate | Party | Vote % | Swing % |
| Kerry Rea | ALP | 48.80 | +6.05 |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal | 41.91 | -2.22 |
| David Wyatt | Greens | 4.90 | -0.03 |
| Stephen Gellaly | FF | 1.93 | -.243 |
| Shane Boese | Fishing Party | 1.21 | NEW |
| Vicki Stocks | Democrats | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| Lisa Charles | Liberty and Democracy | 0.25 | NEW |
Localities
Bonner is a diverse electorate located in southeast Brisbane spanning from Mt Gravatt to Moreton Island in the bay. It includes the working class suburbs near Brisbane Port, acreage in suburbs such as Gumdale and Chandler and many middle class suburbs such as Belmont, Carindale and Wishart.
The main suburbs include Belmont, Burbank, Capalaba West, Carindale, Chandler, Gumdale, Hemmant, Lota, Lytton, Manly, Manly West, Mansfield, Moreton Island, Mount Gravatt, Ransome, Rochedale, Tingalpa, Upper Mt Gravatt, Wakerley, Wishart, Wynnum, Wynnum West and parts of Cannon Hill, Carina, Eight Mile Plains, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mackenzie, Mount Gravatt East and Murarrie.
Candidates
In 2007 Rea was one of the many ALP candidates across the nation that ran a campaign off the back of the Kevin07 brand. With Rudd having been removed from the office of Prime Minister, Rea will suffer from not having created a profile for herself in the electorate. She also lives in the furthest corner of the neighboring electorate, Griffith.
Ross Vasta will be having a second tilt at federal politics for the LNP. Although he was only the member for one term he has a strong local profile and has so far been running his campaign on federal issues such as debt, broken promises and waste and mismanagement.
The Greens are yet to announce a candidate for Bonner, however having only polled 4.9% in 2007 as opposed to 7.8% nationally I doubt they will be able to make inroads in a seat such as Bonner.
Prediction
Whilst Gillard will increase the ALP vote in inner-city areas Bonner, which has been referred to as the ‘Bible Belt’ in the past will be an electorate where her policies, including her admission of being an atheist, could harm the ALP’s chances.
Despite Rae’s lack of profile in the electorate and Gillard being more leftwing than Rudd, I would expect the ALP to hold Bonner, albeit with a swing against.
Paul's Prediction: ALP to just hold in a tight contest.
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