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Showing posts with label nsw by elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nsw by elections. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Port Macquarie
Retiring Member
Extremely popular Independent Rob Oakeshott
Area
Stretching from Coopernook to near Telegraph Point, the electorate is dominated by the urban area of Port Macquarie, the electorate also including the built up areas of Lake Cathie and Laurieton to the south. Also included in the district is distant Lord Howe Island.
History
Created in 1988. Has always been a Nationals seat until Oakeshott left the party and won as an independent.
Both Labor and the National's best primary vote was in 1988 in a 2 horse race. Labor received 30.6% while the Nationals received 69.4%. Both also had their worse result the same year, 2003 when Oakeshott won as independent. Labor 8.4%, Nationals 14.6%, Oakeshott 69.8%.
The 2 candidate prefered result in 2007 was Oakeshott 78.2% - Nationals 21.8%. The 2 party prefered result was Nationals 62.9% - Labor 37.1%
Candidates
Note: No Labor candidate
Nationals: Leslie Williams - contested this seat for the Nationals at the 2007 election.
Greens: Susie Russell - this is the fifth time Russell has contested Port Macquarie, having also contested the local Federal seat of Lyne on a number of occassions, including the Lyne by-election in September. She has worked as an adviser to Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
A whole heap of Independetns, the best chance is former Labor party candidate James Langley who left the party over concerns of the electricity privitisation.
Prediction
Nationals gain. This is the most likely outcome, but with a strong independent vote in the area it may come down to if and how people preference. Having said that, my feeling is the nationals may get just enough of the primary vote to not have to worry about preference.
Extremely popular Independent Rob Oakeshott
Area
Stretching from Coopernook to near Telegraph Point, the electorate is dominated by the urban area of Port Macquarie, the electorate also including the built up areas of Lake Cathie and Laurieton to the south. Also included in the district is distant Lord Howe Island.
History
Created in 1988. Has always been a Nationals seat until Oakeshott left the party and won as an independent.
Both Labor and the National's best primary vote was in 1988 in a 2 horse race. Labor received 30.6% while the Nationals received 69.4%. Both also had their worse result the same year, 2003 when Oakeshott won as independent. Labor 8.4%, Nationals 14.6%, Oakeshott 69.8%.
The 2 candidate prefered result in 2007 was Oakeshott 78.2% - Nationals 21.8%. The 2 party prefered result was Nationals 62.9% - Labor 37.1%
Candidates
Note: No Labor candidate
Nationals: Leslie Williams - contested this seat for the Nationals at the 2007 election.
Greens: Susie Russell - this is the fifth time Russell has contested Port Macquarie, having also contested the local Federal seat of Lyne on a number of occassions, including the Lyne by-election in September. She has worked as an adviser to Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
A whole heap of Independetns, the best chance is former Labor party candidate James Langley who left the party over concerns of the electricity privitisation.
Prediction
Nationals gain. This is the most likely outcome, but with a strong independent vote in the area it may come down to if and how people preference. Having said that, my feeling is the nationals may get just enough of the primary vote to not have to worry about preference.
How-To-Vote: Ryde
Victor Taffa (Independent)
Greens
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
EDIT2: Victor Taffa has emailed me his How-To-Vote. Only one I need now is the Democrats.
Greens
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
EDIT2: Victor Taffa has emailed me his How-To-Vote. Only one I need now is the Democrats.
How-To-Vote: Cabramatta
Greens
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Ryde
Former Member
Former Deputy-Premier and Minister for Transport, John Watkins.
Area
Extends between Parramatta and Lane Cove Rivers. It includes most of the suburb of Ryde, along with Meadowbank, Denistone, West Ryde, North Ryde and most of Eastwood and Marsfield. Also includes Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park office and industrial estate.
History
Ryde was first created in 1894, abolished in 1904, re-created in 1913 and used continuously until abolished again 1968. Back on the electoral map in 1981, it disappeared again in 1991 and re-appeared in its current form at the 1999 election.
Been held by both parties thorught it's history. Has been held by Labor since 1999.
Votes Since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was in 1987 - 57%. Lowest was 44.1% in 1999.
Liberals highest was 45.9 in 1988. Lowest was 28.6% in 2007.
2007 2PP - 80.1%-39.9%
Candidates
Labor - Nicole Campbell - Has lived in Ryde since 1995. Contested Bennelong in the 2001 and 2004 Federal Elections and Epping at the 2007 Federal Election.
Liberal - Victor Dominello - Born and raised in Ryde. Victor is a lawyer and previously served on Ryde Council.
Greens - Lindsay Peters - Contested Epping at the 2007 state Election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Democrats - Peter Goldfinch - Contested Eyde at the 2007 election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Independent - Victor Taffa.
Prediction
Liberal gain. 10.1% swing needed and with the latest polls showing a whopping 24% swing this seat could easily go from a safe Labor seat to a safe Liberal seat just like that.
Former Deputy-Premier and Minister for Transport, John Watkins.
Area
Extends between Parramatta and Lane Cove Rivers. It includes most of the suburb of Ryde, along with Meadowbank, Denistone, West Ryde, North Ryde and most of Eastwood and Marsfield. Also includes Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park office and industrial estate.
History
Ryde was first created in 1894, abolished in 1904, re-created in 1913 and used continuously until abolished again 1968. Back on the electoral map in 1981, it disappeared again in 1991 and re-appeared in its current form at the 1999 election.
Been held by both parties thorught it's history. Has been held by Labor since 1999.
Votes Since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was in 1987 - 57%. Lowest was 44.1% in 1999.
Liberals highest was 45.9 in 1988. Lowest was 28.6% in 2007.
2007 2PP - 80.1%-39.9%
Candidates
Labor - Nicole Campbell - Has lived in Ryde since 1995. Contested Bennelong in the 2001 and 2004 Federal Elections and Epping at the 2007 Federal Election.
Liberal - Victor Dominello - Born and raised in Ryde. Victor is a lawyer and previously served on Ryde Council.
Greens - Lindsay Peters - Contested Epping at the 2007 state Election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Democrats - Peter Goldfinch - Contested Eyde at the 2007 election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Independent - Victor Taffa.
Prediction
Liberal gain. 10.1% swing needed and with the latest polls showing a whopping 24% swing this seat could easily go from a safe Labor seat to a safe Liberal seat just like that.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NSW Government facing annihilation - Tavener Poll
A poll by tavener for the Sydney Morning Herald has found Labor is facing more than a 20% swing in Ryde at the upcoming by-election. A uniform swing (remembering swings are never uniform) of just half that amount at the next election would see the Liberals come storming into power.
Phillip Mithcell Tavener said "The poll shows that an enormous 41 per cent of those who say they preferred Labor in March 2007 now prefer Liberal"
"I suspect such rejection of a political party is virtually unheard of in a democratic community.
"The shift in preference from Labor to Liberal is dramatic and suggests that Labor has absolutely no chance of remaining in power at the next election without some extraordinary event occurring."
The results suggest a 2PP results of 64%-36% to the Liberal Party (a 24% swing%)
In the preferred premier stakes Barry O'Farrell won 44% to 32% with 24% undecided.
The poll also showed people think Mr Rees is a better premier than his predecessor, Morris Iemma. Despite this, 65% said the leadership change had made no impact on the way they feel about the Government.
Not all the news is good for Mr O'Farrell. Almost half of those polled rate his performance as fair or poor.
Phillip Mithcell Tavener said "The poll shows that an enormous 41 per cent of those who say they preferred Labor in March 2007 now prefer Liberal"
"I suspect such rejection of a political party is virtually unheard of in a democratic community.
"The shift in preference from Labor to Liberal is dramatic and suggests that Labor has absolutely no chance of remaining in power at the next election without some extraordinary event occurring."
The results suggest a 2PP results of 64%-36% to the Liberal Party (a 24% swing%)
In the preferred premier stakes Barry O'Farrell won 44% to 32% with 24% undecided.
The poll also showed people think Mr Rees is a better premier than his predecessor, Morris Iemma. Despite this, 65% said the leadership change had made no impact on the way they feel about the Government.
Not all the news is good for Mr O'Farrell. Almost half of those polled rate his performance as fair or poor.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Cabramatta
Former Member
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.
At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.
Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.
Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.
At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.
Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.
Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Hubdub predictions.
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