Lindsay Tanner to retire at next election.

During Question Time today Lindsay Tanner announced he will not be re-contesting his seat of Melbourne at the next election. Lindsay will be sorely missed by myself and others, he was a great performer in QT and very quick-witted.
The ALP was in danger of losing Melbourne to the Greens at the next election and I think the retirement of Tanner may just send it over the edge.
What are your thoughts on Tanner retiring?

Julia Gillard to be sworn in as Prime Minister today + random thoughts on it all.

Today, at 12:30pm Julia Gillard will be sworn in as Australia's 27th (and first female) Prime Minister. This has come about due to the ALP panicking over the media's reporting of 1 bad poll. The latest polls had the ALP in an election winning position, of course you wouldn't know that reading The Australian and it seems the ALP and the ABC for that matter were. It seems downrihgt moronic to me to change leaders so close to an election and when leading in the polls.

Having said that I'm a Julia Gillard fan (as my tweeps would know) and have said numerous times I can't wait for her to be PM. Let's hope she starts moving the ALP back towards the left (or at least the centre) a little bit.

My first piece of advice to Ms Gillard is to dump Conroy as Minister for Broadband, Commincations and The Digital Economy and replace him with @katelundy.

Penrith by-election results and pictures.

UPDATE 12:05pm Monday: Figures now include pre-poll and postal votes.

I'm very late with the results here but I do have 1 thing some others dont, pictures I took while I touring some of the booths. I met Keneally at Penrith South Public School, she was happy to meet me until I told her I predicted an 18.2% swing to Liberals. Having said all that she looked great though. Anyway, here are the results and pictures.

Candidate	Vote %	Swing %
John Thain	24.5	-24.2
Suzie Wright	12.1	+6.6
Mick Saunders	2.0	New
Stuart Ayres	51.5	+18.9
David Leyonjhelm	1.9	New
Jose Sanz	0.9	+/-0
Andrew Green	4.4	-1.8
Noel Selby	2.7	New

2PP result - 66.5%-33.5% - 2PP swing 25.7%
Turnout - 85.2%
Informal - 3.2%

Pictures
(My camera shit itself so pics were taken on my phone, hence pretty poor quality)

Julie Bishop DEATH STARE! mousepad.

Now available in the AustraliaVotes store for just $17.50

NSW election debate on Twitter - #penrithdebate

According to @KevinWilde, the 9 network has organised a twitter debate between @kkeneally @barryofarrell @leerhiannon for this Wednesday, 16th June. The debate will start at 11:15am, last 30 minutes and will use the #penrithdebate tag. The by-election is not the only issue that will be discussed, they are just using that hashtag because the by-election is on saturday, No word yet on whether Kevin will ask all the questions or if they'll select any from the hashtag stream. I'll be watching (and maybe participating.) Hope to see you there.

Netherlands General Election results.

I'm a couple of days late wuth this but here it is. Netherlands went to the polls on the 9th to elect a new parliament. All 150 seats in the House of Represenatives were up for grabs (coincidentally Australia also has 150 seats in the House of Reps)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Party	Vote %	Swing	Seats	Seat Change
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy	20.4%	+5.7%	31	+9
Labour Party	19.6%	-1.6%	30	-3
Party for Freedom	15.5%	+9.6%	24	+15
Christian Democratic Appeal	13.7%	-12.8%	21	-20
Socialist Party	9.9%	-6.7%	15	-10
Democrats 66	6.9%	+4%	10	+7
GreenLeft	6.6%	+2%	10	+3
ChristianUnion	3.3%	-0.7%	5	-1
Reformed Political Party	1.7%	+0.1%	2	+/-0
Party for the Animals	1.3%	-0.5%	2	+/-0

Penrith By-election preview.

A by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith wil be held on the 19th June due to the resignation of Karyn Paluzzano who lied to ICAC over her actions, such as signing false staff payslips and rorting her electoral mail allowance.

History
Penrith has traditonally been a safe Labor seat. Paluzzano won the seat at the 2007 election with 48.7% of the primary vote and 59.2% 2PP (a swing of 2.9% to ALP) Since it's creation in 1973 Penrith has been held by Labor for all but 3 years (1988-1991).

2007 Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Candidate	Party	Vote %	Swing %
Karyn Paluzzano	ALP	48.7	+2.3
Tricia Hitchen	Liberals	32.6	-3.0
Andrew Green	CDP	6.2	+3.4
Suzie Wright	Greens	5.6	-0.3
Geoff Brown	Independent	3.6	New
Andrew Mavin	AAFI	2.6	New
Geraldine Waters	Democrats	0.9	+/- 0

Localities.
All or some of the following suburbs are situated in Penrith
Blaxland, Cambridge Park, Castlereagh, Cranebrook, East Blaxland, Emu Heights, Emu Plains, Glenbrook, Jamisontown, Kingswood, Kingswood Park, Lapstone, Lemongrove, Leonay, Mount Pleasant, Penrith, Raaf Glenbrook, South Penrith

Candidates
(Names link to candidate website if availlable)
 
John Thain - Thain (48) has lived in the Penrith area for 15 years. He was first elected to Penrith Council in 1999, served as Deputy Mayor 2004/05 and Mayor 2005/06

Suzie Wright - Wright has largely worked in the community and adult education sectors. attended Nepean High and has lived in the area for most of her life. She has part of the campaign protesting development on the ADI site in the area.
Key Issues:

• Penrith deserves decent politics - The Greens believe all politicians should be transparent and accountable. We have never accepted donations from developers and have worked hard in State Parliament to put an end to the influence of corporate money on political decisions. We do politics differently by putting the community first.
• Public Transport - For too long the residents of the Penrith electorate have been overlooked when it comes to their transport needs. The Greens stand for greater investment in public transport so that everyone can access public transport when and where they need it. More motorways will only add to Sydney's transport woes and air pollution levels. We need fast, frequent and safe buses, trains and more cycleways.
• Overdevelopment - It's vital that Penrith's precious natural areas and agricultural land is protected. Protecting natural areas means a healthier lifestyle for each and every one of us today, as well as for future generations. The Greens have campaigned hard to save the last remnants of Cumberland Plains Woodlands and Grasslands including the ADI site and to save Sydney's food basin. We will fiercely protect Western Sydney from overdevelopment and continue to work for a more sustainable Penrith.
• Healthy Communities - World class health services are the foundation of our community. Both State and Federal Governments have failed the people of Western Sydney by reducing services, staffing and amenity at the Nepean Hospital. The Greens would work to ensure the needs of Penrith are met when it comes to the provision of high quality public health services. We believe government also has a responsibility to prevent illness and promote healthier lifestyles. The Greens would introduce a healthy communities plan for Penrith if elected.

Mick Saunders - He has lived in Western Sydney for most of his life.He has served in the Australian Army and has worked in the railways at Penrith. He is the Australia Fisrt PArty but as they are not registered with the NSW electoral commission he will be listed as an independent.
Key Issues:  

• There is an open plan to explode the population of Western Sydney. Land can be acquired by force and sold off to developers. Stop this population explosion and the immigration invasion of our suburbs!  
• Public assets should remain in public hands. Get back what has been stolen!
   
• Citizens' Initiated Referenda. That means people can propose laws and have them voted on. That's real democracy!
   
• End the road tolls. Take State taxes off fuel. No more private roadways. Make road rules 'national' so they don't vary State to State.
    
• Corruption? Make the guilty pay back the community in full
  

Stuart Ayres - Ayres is 29 and has lived in Penrith since 1993. He is an AFL player having played 190 games for the Penrith Rams. He would have played his 200th game this season were it not for the by-election. He also a keen horse racing man and owns shares in a couple of horses. In the past he has worked for Jackie Kelly. He is the partner of NSW Senator Marise Payne.
Key Issues:

• Safety on Victoria Bridge
• Revitalising Dunheved Business Park
• Improving our local roads
• A fast train service between Penrith and Sydney
• Improving our local bus network
• More resources for Nepean Hospital
• Keeping our community safe with more frontline police
• Cracking down on anti-social behaviour, including graffiti
• Conserving our native bushland and water quality in the Nepean River
• Impact of population growth on our area
• Bring honesty and accountability back to government
• Housing affordability and the rising cost of living
• Quality and availability of local sporting fields

David Leyonhjelm (Outdoor Recreation Party) - David has been a member of both Young Labor and Young Liberals. He was the DLP candidate in Bennelong in the 2007 Federal election.

Jose Sanz - Jose previously worked for the Penrith Panthers Leagues Club and now works at CUA Stadium Penrith.

Andrew Green- Andrew worked for Greens Foods until 1999 when he left to become a pastor. He was the CDP candidate for Penrith in the 2007 state election, Lindsay in the 2007 federal election and Penrith Council in 2008.

Noel Selby  – A resident of Jamisontown and former local soccer coach, and Hawkesbury Community Radio Board member.
Prediction
Stuart Ayres will romp in. By-elections almost always produce big to massive swings and this time won't be any difference. The task for Stuart and the Liberal Party is to try to hold Penrith at the 2011 election.

The latest polls, The Greens and terrible numbers for both leaders.

Newspoll released last night had a 2PP vote of 51-49 to the ALP. there's nothing strange about that, yesterday's Essential Research poll also had a 2PP of 51-49. What was a bit strange in the Newspoll was the primary figures. ALP 35% (-2), LIB/NAT 41% (-2) and Greens on 16% (+4)

What do you think? Do you think this poll is an outlier? Do you think will get anyhwere near 16% at the next election?

Another interesting this that both polls has shown collapse is the fall in approval and rise in disapproval of both leaders. Kevin Rudd is in negative net approval territory with Essential for the first time (-6) which is a -10% change from last time. Abbott is at -15 which is also -10%. With Newspoll, the numbers are also pretty bad with Rudd -18 (-6) and Abbott -12 (-9)

EDITL Essential's Primary numbers are 39%, 41% and 9%

The request line is open.

Call up the line, call up the request line. This here is for you, the reader, to make requests for any posts you'd like to see. You can go through the archives to see the type of things I come up with on occasion to give you an idea if you like. I may or may not be able to get to everything depending on the number of requests (if any) and whether I'm smart/talented enough to actually do what you ask.

Live UK election results.

Here are live UK election results, updated throughout the day. For more detailed results see my @AustraliaVotes twitter stream.

Updated 6:30pm (AEST)
Currently declared seats.
(326 needed for majority)
Labour - 258
Conservative - 306
Liberal Democrats - 57
Democratic Union - 8
Sinn Fein - 5
Plaid Cymru - 3
Scottish National Party - 6
Social Democrat & Labour - 3
Alliance Party - 1
Greens - 1
Others - 1


Current Vote
Labour 29.0% -6.2%
Conservative - 36.1% +3.8%
Liberal Democrats - 22.3% +1%