Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.
Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing
Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)
Ryde Primary Vote and Swing
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Showing posts with label nsw by-elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nsw by-elections. Show all posts
Thursday, October 23, 2008
NSW Elections: Final results and some charts
The final results for the NSe by-elections are in the post below. Labor has held on in Lakemba and Cabramatta despite huge swings. The Liberals have won Ryde, while Peter Besseling has won Port Macquarie thanks to help from the Liberal party.
Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.
Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing
Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)
Ryde Primary Vote and Swing
Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.
Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing
Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)
Ryde Primary Vote and Swing
Sunday, October 12, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Lakemba.
Former Member
Once poular former Premier, Morris Iemma.
Area
Lakemba is situated in Sydney's inner south-west. Lakemba lies mainly between Punchbowl Road and the M5 Motorway, though it also extends south of the M5 into Hurstville Council to include the Riverwood housing estate and parts of Peakhurst. Other suburbs in the electorate include Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park, Roselands, Wiley Park and Punchbowl.
History
Lakemba has been held by the Labor party since it was created in 1927.
Votes since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was 78.6% in a 2 horse race in 1981. In more recent times they received 73.9% of the primary vote at the 2007 election. Their lowest primary vote result was 43.9 in 1988.
Liberals highest primary vote was 38.2 in 1984. Their lowest was 13.2 in 2007.
The 2PP result in 2007 was 84%-16%.
Candidates
Labor - Popularly ellected Canterbury Mayor, Robert Furolo.
Liberals - Michael Hawatt. Long serving Canterbury councillor. Has contested Lakemba 3 times previously, once as an independent.
Greens - Kristian Bolwell. Works for Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon.
CDP - Allan Lotfizadeh.
CDP - Zarif Abdullah.
IND - Robert Aitken - Communist League candidate who has previously contested NSW state election, running in Cabramatta in 1995, Fairlfield in 1999 and Lakemba in 2003.
Prediction
Labor Retain. Should see a huge swing to the Liberal Party because of such a huge primary and 2PP vote for Labor at the last election. Furolo is well known in the area so his personal vote will be enough to stop the Liberals from taking the seat.
Once poular former Premier, Morris Iemma.
Area
Lakemba is situated in Sydney's inner south-west. Lakemba lies mainly between Punchbowl Road and the M5 Motorway, though it also extends south of the M5 into Hurstville Council to include the Riverwood housing estate and parts of Peakhurst. Other suburbs in the electorate include Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park, Roselands, Wiley Park and Punchbowl.
History
Lakemba has been held by the Labor party since it was created in 1927.
Votes since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was 78.6% in a 2 horse race in 1981. In more recent times they received 73.9% of the primary vote at the 2007 election. Their lowest primary vote result was 43.9 in 1988.
Liberals highest primary vote was 38.2 in 1984. Their lowest was 13.2 in 2007.
The 2PP result in 2007 was 84%-16%.
Candidates
Labor - Popularly ellected Canterbury Mayor, Robert Furolo.
Liberals - Michael Hawatt. Long serving Canterbury councillor. Has contested Lakemba 3 times previously, once as an independent.
Greens - Kristian Bolwell. Works for Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon.
CDP - Allan Lotfizadeh.
CDP - Zarif Abdullah.
IND - Robert Aitken - Communist League candidate who has previously contested NSW state election, running in Cabramatta in 1995, Fairlfield in 1999 and Lakemba in 2003.
Prediction
Labor Retain. Should see a huge swing to the Liberal Party because of such a huge primary and 2PP vote for Labor at the last election. Furolo is well known in the area so his personal vote will be enough to stop the Liberals from taking the seat.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Cabramatta
Former Member
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.
At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.
Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.
Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.
At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.
Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.
Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Hubdub predictions.
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