Turnbull claws back a little bit of ground.

Malcolm Turnbull has clawed back a little bit of public support in the past 2 weeks according to the latest Newspoll conducted for The Australian. The bad news for Mr Turnbull is he trails both Peter Costello and Joe Hockey as preferred Liberal leader. Costello got 36% of the vote with Abbot on 20%, Turnbull on 16% and Tony Abbot on 10%.

The Coalition has jumped 2% on primary votes to trail Labour 43%(steady)-39%. The 2PP has stayed at 55%-45%, a swing of 2.3% to Labor on the 2007 election. If this result was repeated on election day Labor would pick up around 14 extra seats (assuming a universal swing)

Been away for a while.

Will try to post again starting now. Also I'm now on twitter - www.twitter.com/paulyt

Newspoll: Voters desert the Coalition

The latest Newspoll shows Kevin Rudd and Labor's popularity has soared as voters desert the Coalition. Kevin Rudd's preferred PM and approval ratings have both risen while the Labor's primary and 2PP vote have sky-rocketed to levels not seen since Nelson was opposition leader.

Primary Vote
Labor - 48% (up from 42% on last Newspoll and 43.3% at the election)
Coalition - 35% (down from 38% on last Newspoll and 42.1% at the election)
Greens - 10% (down from 11% on the last Newspoll, up from 7.8% at the election)
Others - 7% (down from 9% on the last newspoll, up from 6.8% at the last election)

2PP Vote
Labor 59% - Coalition 41% (up from 55-45 on the last Newspoll and 52.7-47.3 at the election)

Rudd
Satisfied - 70% (up from 67%)
Dissatisfied - 21% (up from 20%)
Uncommitted - 9% (down from 13%)

Turnbull
Satisfied - 47% (down from 52%)
Dissatisfied - 32% (up from 27%)
Uncommitted - 21% (steady)

Better PM
Rudd - 66% (up from 63%)
Turnbull - 19% (down from 21%)
Uncommitted - 15% (down from 16%)

Dennis Shanahan's take here
Mumble predicts Joe Hockey will be the Liberal leader at the next election
Poll Bludger reckons the results would have been worse if Nelson was still there.

The target emissions cut: Your say.

FEDERAL cabinet is finalising a cautious emissions trading scheme offering higher compensation to big trade-exposed polluters and a "soft" start in pollution-reduction targets.

With concern growing in the Rudd cabinet about the emissions trading scheme's potential to exacerbate already rising unemployment, particularly in crucial marginal regional seats, the target range for the regime to be released on Monday week is widely expected to be between 5 per cent and 15 per cent by 2020. But the emissions trading white paper will tie Australian emissions reduction targets to the ambition of next year's Copenhagen agreement on cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

Article at The Australian

What do you think the cut will be? The thinking is between 5-15%. Do you think is enough? Too much? Have your say by leaving a comment below.

Just received a "Braking News" email from the Daily Telegraph.

Apparently, Premier Iemma has quit.

Population change and allocation of seats.

The ABS issued it's latest statistics on the population of Australia. These figures will be used by the Electoral Commissioner to determine the allocation of seats to each state for the next Federal election. To determine the amount of seats each state is entitled to they divide the total population of the 6 states by twice the number of senators. At the moment the 6 state population is 20,807,400. To get the quote we divide 20,807,400 by 144 (twice the number of senators)giving us a quota of 144,496. Only the 6 states are used in this calculation, the quota for the territories is set in the Electoral Act, not the constitution. This gives us this the following entitlements.

New South Wales - 48.2 - 48 seats, down from 49
Victoria - 36.6 - 37 seats unchanged
Queensland - 29.6 - 30 seats, up one from 29
Western Australia - 14.9 - 15 seats unchanged
South Australia - 11.0 - 11 seats unchanged
Tasmania - 3.4 - 5 seats unchanged.

The original states are guaranteed a minimum representation of five seats, so Tasmania retains five seats despite only having a quota for 3 seats.

Former deputy PM Frank Crean has died aged 92

Former treasurer and deputy prime minister Frank Crean, 92, has died in Melbourne surrounded by his family.

Frank, the father of former Labor leader Simon Crean was first elected to the Victorian Legislative Assembly in 1945 but was defeated in 1947. He was re-elected in 1949

n 1951 Crean quit state politics to stand for the safe Labor seat of Melbourne Ports in the House of Representatives. Crean advanced rapidly, in 1956 he was elected to the Opposition front-bench and became in effect shadow Treasurer (although Labor did not have a formal shadow ministry until 1969), a position he held for 16 years.

During the 1960s Crean was sometimes considered as a possible party leader, but his rather plodding public image meant that he was overtaken by Gough Whitlam, who became leader in 1967. When Whitlam finally led Labor to office at the 1972 election, Crean became Treasurer, although Whitlam had no real confidence in him.

Crean was unfortunate that his time as Treasurer coincided with the onset of high inflation and rising unemployment. He did not trust the orthodox economic advice he was getting from the Treasury, but he lacked the authority to challenge it. The leader of the Labor Left, Dr Jim Cairns, attacked Crean's policies in the Cabinet, and in December 1974 Whitlam gave Cairns the Treasury and moved Crean to the Trade portfolio.

In July 1975 Whitlam sacked Cairns over his involvement in the Loans Affair, and Crean was elected party Deputy Leader and Deputy Prime Minister in his place. He held this position until the dismissal of the Whitlam government in November 1975. After the elections he contested the leadership but was defeated by Whitlam.

Robert doyle the new Lord Mayor of Melbourne.

Mr Doyle won with 26.6 per cent of the primary vote ahead of Catherine Ng.

At one stage yesterday, it looked likely that Ms Ng could spring a surprise victory.

Ms Ng had secured just 10.8 per cent of the primary vote, but distribution of preferences vaulted her into contention.

Mr Doyle's victory was eventually secured with Labor member Peter McMullin's preferences.

"It's extraordinary that Labor has helped to elect Doyle," rival candidate Gary Morgan said.

"I can't remember anything like it."

The Greens' Adam Bandt had the second-highest primary vote of 15 per cent, but did not benefit from preferences.

The results were a major disappointment for Labor and Mr McMullin, whose expensive and aggressive campaign yielded just 12.5 per cent.

Article


The new councillors (in order of election) are: Carl Jetter, Cathy Oke, Kevin Louey, Peter Clark, Ken Ong, Brian Shanahan, Jennifer Kanas.

Voter turnout for both was around 62%.

Lee Rhiannon urges Rees to use COAG to push for more Health Funding

Greens MP and health spokesperson Lee Rhiannon says Premier Nathan Rees must use tomorrow's COAG meeting to push for more funding for primary health, particularly for early intervention and prevention services.

Referring to the crisis facing acute hospital care identified yesterday in the report by Commissioner Peter Garling SC, Ms Rhiannon said "The Garling Report focused on acute care hospital services but the crisis will not dissipate unless the Rees government invests heavily in health prevention and early intervention services,"

"Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's offer to the states of $450 million for preventative health is a start, but much more is needed to arrest pressures on the NSW hospital system.

"2008 figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare show that NSW spending on public health as a proportion of total recurrent health spending is in decline, with NSW below the national average." Ms Rhiannon said.

Source: Greens media release.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's statement on Mumbai

Overnight in the Indian city of Mumbai there have been a series of coordinated attacks on up to 10 hotels, train stations and other public places. It is unclear at this stage who is responsible for these attacks, although one organisation has claimed responsibility. The Australian government unreservedly condemns the atrocious attacks on innocent people in Mumbai, whoever has carried out those attacks.

As we speak, these events continue to unfold, but we understand that up to 80 people have been killed and some 250 injured. Our sympathy and condolences go to the victims and to their families. Attackers may still be in the hotels, and there are reports that hostages have been taken.

The government is seeking to confirm as a matter of urgency the safety and welfare of Australians who may be affected. We have 317 Australians registered with us as being in Mumbai. There are likely to be more than that. Our consular staff are currently attempting to contact all the Australians who are registered. At least two Australians have been injured, and our thoughts are with them and their families. I am advised that Australian casualties may rise.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has been in contact with the families of those who have been known to be injured so far and with their families in Australia and is providing consular assistance on the ground in Mumbai. Australians who are concerned about the welfare of loved ones can contact a hotline that has been established by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

The number of the consular hotline is 1800 002 214. I have just now spoken to the Australian High Commissioner to India, who is in Mumbai and leading the government’s response. Officials from the Australian Consulate-General in Mumbai and the Australian High Commission in New Delhi are checking with local authorities and hotel owners to determine exactly how many Australians may have been caught up in these incidents.

The group that has claimed responsibility for this attack calls itself the Deccan Mujahideen. Together with other ministers, I have just attended a meeting of the National Security Committee of the cabinet. At this stage, little is known about this group—at least, a group using that name. But whichever group has perpetrated this attack, they are cowards—absolute cowards—and murderers.

It is likely to take some time to identify all the perpetrators. This cowardly attack on India’s stability, peace and democracy reminds us all that international terrorism is far from defeated and that we must all maintain our vigilance. We have to continue to work closely with our allies and partners around the world to defeat terrorism.

In the light of this attack, we have today reissued our travel advice for India. The advice says that Australians should avoid travel to Mumbai at this time. I would encourage all Australians to read the advice carefully. We are offering, through the Australian Federal Police, assistance with counterterrorism and forensics policing to the Indian authorities and any other assistance which may be of direct relevance at this critical time. We stand ready to assist India in any way it needs right now.

This latest attack on Indian peace, stability and democracy reminds us again of the need to remain forever vigilant. I remind all honourable members of this: this is an unfolding event; it is a serious incident, and it is therefore of deep concern and distress to all Australian families who have members of their families in India and/or in Mumbai at this time.

I would join with all members in offering our thoughts and prayers at this time, given the great uncertainties which continue.