NSW Elections: Final results and some charts

The final results for the NSe by-elections are in the post below. Labor has held on in Lakemba and Cabramatta despite huge swings. The Liberals have won Ryde, while Peter Besseling has won Port Macquarie thanks to help from the Liberal party.

Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.


Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing


Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)


Ryde Primary Vote and Swing

Port Macquarie Polling Places

UNDIVIDED
Premises	Address	Unique Polling Place Name
Bonny Hills Community Hall	Graham Street, Bonny Hills NSW 2445	Bonny Hills
Camden Haven High School	Valley View Road, KEW NSW 2439 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Kew
Coopernook Public Hall	Macquarie Street, Coopernook NSW 2426	Coopernook
Dunbogan Jubilee Hall	The Boulevarde, DUNBOGAN NSW 2443	Dunbogan
Emerald Downs Community Centre	Emerald Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Emerald Downs
Hannam Vale Public School	1159 Hannam Vale Road, Hannam Vale NSW 2443	Hannam Vale
Harrington Public School	High Street, HARRINGTON NSW 2427	Harrington
Hastings Public School	Wainora Parkway, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Port Macquarie South
Herons Creek Public School	5499 Pacific Highway, Herons Creek NSW 2443	Herons Creek
Johns River Public School	Station Street, Johns River NSW 2443	John Rivers
Kendall War Memorial Hall	Graham Street, Kendall NSW 2439	Kendall
King Creek Rural Fire Station	Narran Close, King Creek NSW 2446	King Creek
Lake Cathie Community Hall	Mullaway Road, Lake Cathie NSW 2445 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Lake Cathie
Lansdowne Public School	Macquarie Street, Lansdowne NSW 2430	Lansdowne
Laurieton School Of Arts Hall	Bold Street, Laurieton NSW 2443 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Laurieton
Lord Howe Island Central School	Lagoon Road, Lord Howe Island NSW 2898 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Lord Howe Island
Lorne Recreation Centre	941 Stewarts River Road, Lorne NSW 2439	Lorne
Moorland Public School	15 Church Street, Moorland NSW 2443	Moorland
North Haven Public School	Ocean Drive, NORTH HAVEN NSW 2443	North Haven
North Shore Rural Fire Station	Shoreline Drive, Riverside NSW 2444	Port Macquarie North Shore
Port Macquaire Base Hospital	Wrights Road, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Port Macquarie Base
Port Macquarie High School	Owen Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Port Macquarie East
Port Macquarie Lions Club	Hastings River Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Hibbard
Port Macquarie Public School	Grant Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Port Macquarie Central
Port Macquarie Shop 2	155 Horton Street, PORT MACQUARIE NSW 2444 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible)	Port Macquarie
St Columba Anglican School	3 Iona Avenue, PORT MACQUARIE NSW 2444	Major Innes
St Josephs High School Regional Campus	Warlters Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Settlement Shores
St Peter The Fisherman Church Hall	421 Ocean Drive, West Haven NSW 2443	West Haven
Tacking Point Public School	Bangalay Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Tacking Point
Westport High School	Findlay Avenue, Port Macquarie NSW 2444	Port Macquarie West

NSW by elections - Pre-poll locations.

Ryde

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Lakemba

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Cabramatta

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Port Macquarie
Laurieton

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Harrington

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Port Macquarie

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A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Port Macquarie

Retiring Member
Extremely popular Independent Rob Oakeshott

Area
Stretching from Coopernook to near Telegraph Point, the electorate is dominated by the urban area of Port Macquarie, the electorate also including the built up areas of Lake Cathie and Laurieton to the south. Also included in the district is distant Lord Howe Island.

History
Created in 1988. Has always been a Nationals seat until Oakeshott left the party and won as an independent.

Both Labor and the National's best primary vote was in 1988 in a 2 horse race. Labor received 30.6% while the Nationals received 69.4%. Both also had their worse result the same year, 2003 when Oakeshott won as independent. Labor 8.4%, Nationals 14.6%, Oakeshott 69.8%.

The 2 candidate prefered result in 2007 was Oakeshott 78.2% - Nationals 21.8%. The 2 party prefered result was Nationals 62.9% - Labor 37.1%

Candidates
Note: No Labor candidate
Nationals: Leslie Williams - contested this seat for the Nationals at the 2007 election.
Greens: Susie Russell - this is the fifth time Russell has contested Port Macquarie, having also contested the local Federal seat of Lyne on a number of occassions, including the Lyne by-election in September. She has worked as an adviser to Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
A whole heap of Independetns, the best chance is former Labor party candidate James Langley who left the party over concerns of the electricity privitisation.

Prediction
Nationals gain. This is the most likely outcome, but with a strong independent vote in the area it may come down to if and how people preference. Having said that, my feeling is the nationals may get just enough of the primary vote to not have to worry about preference.

Hubdub Predictions: Port Macquarie

Which party will hold Port Macquarie after the NSW by-elections?