Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Newspoll: Voters desert the Coalition

The latest Newspoll shows Kevin Rudd and Labor's popularity has soared as voters desert the Coalition. Kevin Rudd's preferred PM and approval ratings have both risen while the Labor's primary and 2PP vote have sky-rocketed to levels not seen since Nelson was opposition leader.

Primary Vote
Labor - 48% (up from 42% on last Newspoll and 43.3% at the election)
Coalition - 35% (down from 38% on last Newspoll and 42.1% at the election)
Greens - 10% (down from 11% on the last Newspoll, up from 7.8% at the election)
Others - 7% (down from 9% on the last newspoll, up from 6.8% at the last election)

2PP Vote
Labor 59% - Coalition 41% (up from 55-45 on the last Newspoll and 52.7-47.3 at the election)

Satisfied - 70% (up from 67%)
Dissatisfied - 21% (up from 20%)
Uncommitted - 9% (down from 13%)

Satisfied - 47% (down from 52%)
Dissatisfied - 32% (up from 27%)
Uncommitted - 21% (steady)

Better PM
Rudd - 66% (up from 63%)
Turnbull - 19% (down from 21%)
Uncommitted - 15% (down from 16%)

Dennis Shanahan's take here
Mumble predicts Joe Hockey will be the Liberal leader at the next election
Poll Bludger reckons the results would have been worse if Nelson was still there.

Friday, December 5, 2008

The target emissions cut: Your say.

FEDERAL cabinet is finalising a cautious emissions trading scheme offering higher compensation to big trade-exposed polluters and a "soft" start in pollution-reduction targets.

With concern growing in the Rudd cabinet about the emissions trading scheme's potential to exacerbate already rising unemployment, particularly in crucial marginal regional seats, the target range for the regime to be released on Monday week is widely expected to be between 5 per cent and 15 per cent by 2020. But the emissions trading white paper will tie Australian emissions reduction targets to the ambition of next year's Copenhagen agreement on cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

Article at The Australian

What do you think the cut will be? The thinking is between 5-15%. Do you think is enough? Too much? Have your say by leaving a comment below.

Just received a "Braking News" email from the Daily Telegraph.

Apparently, Premier Iemma has quit.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Population change and allocation of seats.

The ABS issued it's latest statistics on the population of Australia. These figures will be used by the Electoral Commissioner to determine the allocation of seats to each state for the next Federal election. To determine the amount of seats each state is entitled to they divide the total population of the 6 states by twice the number of senators. At the moment the 6 state population is 20,807,400. To get the quote we divide 20,807,400 by 144 (twice the number of senators)giving us a quota of 144,496. Only the 6 states are used in this calculation, the quota for the territories is set in the Electoral Act, not the constitution. This gives us this the following entitlements.

New South Wales - 48.2 - 48 seats, down from 49
Victoria - 36.6 - 37 seats unchanged
Queensland - 29.6 - 30 seats, up one from 29
Western Australia - 14.9 - 15 seats unchanged
South Australia - 11.0 - 11 seats unchanged
Tasmania - 3.4 - 5 seats unchanged.

The original states are guaranteed a minimum representation of five seats, so Tasmania retains five seats despite only having a quota for 3 seats.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Former deputy PM Frank Crean has died aged 92

Former treasurer and deputy prime minister Frank Crean, 92, has died in Melbourne surrounded by his family.

Frank, the father of former Labor leader Simon Crean was first elected to the Victorian Legislative Assembly in 1945 but was defeated in 1947. He was re-elected in 1949

n 1951 Crean quit state politics to stand for the safe Labor seat of Melbourne Ports in the House of Representatives. Crean advanced rapidly, in 1956 he was elected to the Opposition front-bench and became in effect shadow Treasurer (although Labor did not have a formal shadow ministry until 1969), a position he held for 16 years.

During the 1960s Crean was sometimes considered as a possible party leader, but his rather plodding public image meant that he was overtaken by Gough Whitlam, who became leader in 1967. When Whitlam finally led Labor to office at the 1972 election, Crean became Treasurer, although Whitlam had no real confidence in him.

Crean was unfortunate that his time as Treasurer coincided with the onset of high inflation and rising unemployment. He did not trust the orthodox economic advice he was getting from the Treasury, but he lacked the authority to challenge it. The leader of the Labor Left, Dr Jim Cairns, attacked Crean's policies in the Cabinet, and in December 1974 Whitlam gave Cairns the Treasury and moved Crean to the Trade portfolio.

In July 1975 Whitlam sacked Cairns over his involvement in the Loans Affair, and Crean was elected party Deputy Leader and Deputy Prime Minister in his place. He held this position until the dismissal of the Whitlam government in November 1975. After the elections he contested the leadership but was defeated by Whitlam.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Robert doyle the new Lord Mayor of Melbourne.

Mr Doyle won with 26.6 per cent of the primary vote ahead of Catherine Ng.

At one stage yesterday, it looked likely that Ms Ng could spring a surprise victory.

Ms Ng had secured just 10.8 per cent of the primary vote, but distribution of preferences vaulted her into contention.

Mr Doyle's victory was eventually secured with Labor member Peter McMullin's preferences.

"It's extraordinary that Labor has helped to elect Doyle," rival candidate Gary Morgan said.

"I can't remember anything like it."

The Greens' Adam Bandt had the second-highest primary vote of 15 per cent, but did not benefit from preferences.

The results were a major disappointment for Labor and Mr McMullin, whose expensive and aggressive campaign yielded just 12.5 per cent.


The new councillors (in order of election) are: Carl Jetter, Cathy Oke, Kevin Louey, Peter Clark, Ken Ong, Brian Shanahan, Jennifer Kanas.

Voter turnout for both was around 62%.
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