Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Tasmanian Election Final results (progressively updated)

FINAL UPDATE.
Full list of candidates and the order in which they were elected.

Bass - Ferguson (LIB), M O'Byrne (ALP), Gutewin (LIB), Booth (GRN). Wightman (ALP)

Braddon - Green (ALP), Rockliff (LIB), Best (ALP), Brooks (LIB), O'Halloran (GRN)

Denison - O'Connor (GRN), Bartlett (ALP), Groom (LIB), Bacon (ALP), Archer (LIB)

Franklin - Hodgman (LIB), McKim (GRN), Giddings (ALP), D O'Byrne (ALP), Petrusma (LIB)

Lyons - Morris (GRN), Hidding (LIB), Shelton (LIB), Polley (ALP), White (ALP)

2010 Mission Australia Survey for Young Australians

Something a little different today. I've been emailed and asked to share the link to the 2010 Mission Australia survey for Young Australians. This survey is for 11-24 year olds. Mission Australia is hoping to get as many respondents as possible so the survey has an impact. Click here to take the survey.

Monday, March 29, 2010

March 29th Newspoll - 56-44

The latest Newspoll (which for some reason is not on The Australian yet) has the ALP leading 56-44 which is a change of +4% to Labor since the last Newspoll. The primary vote is ALP 43% (+4%), Libs 35% (-2%), Nats 3% (-1%) (Coalition total 38% (-3%)) and Greens 12%  (+1%).
Rudd's satisfaction is up 3 to 51% with his dis-satisfaction down 2 to 39% with a net satisfaction rating of +12. Abbot's numbers 44 (down 3), 43 (up 5) and +1 (down 8).
Labor has re-taken the lead on the question of 'Better party to handle the economy" leading 44-39. Last time  the Coalition led 45-40. Labor has increased their lead on "Better party to handle health and Medicare from 16 to 18.

(A 56-44 result on election day would see Labor win 101 seats if the swing is uniform but they never are)

SA Legislative Council update.

The ABC calculator has been updated and now has 92.64% of the votes counted. It is still predicting that Dignity For Disability will win the 11th spot. However, Antony Green has warned that it counts all below the line votes as formal whereas the SAEC is now starting to decide which are informal. Antony says between a 3rd and 1/2 of all below the line votes will be declared informal and this will lower the minor party vote. No other minor party can get ahead of D4D but if the vote is lowered enough due to votes being declared informal they may fall short and elect either another Labor or Liberal candidate.

Monday, March 22, 2010

SA and Tas elections: Still counting.

UPDATE: 9:40pm Thursday - Fox (ALP) has taken the lead in Bright. She has gone from trailing Kourtesis (LIB) by 6 to leading by 144


UPDATE: 3:30pm Wednesday - Isobel Redmond has conceded defeat.


UPDATE: 5pm Tuesday - The latest Bright update sees Maria Kourtesis (LIB) leading Chloe Fox (ALP) by just 6 votes on the 2PP vote.

UPDATE: 5:05pm - Mount Gambier - Don Pegler (IND) ahead of Steve Perryman (LIB) by 724 votes on 2PP. Just waiting for postals there.

Tasmania looks like going 10-10-5 (although iElect thinks it could go 11 ALP, 8 LIB, 5 GRN and 1 IND (Andrew Wilkie)

In SA, the ALP has held on despite a pretty swing to the Liberal Party as the swing was big in safe ALP and LIB seats but quite small in the marginals. The final make up in SA looks like 25 ALP, 18 LIB and 4 IND. The Upper House in SA looks as though it will be 4 ALP, 4 LIB, 1 GRN, 1 FF and 1 Dignity for Disability.


As I said, counting is still taking place and these results may change. The most likely change would be the last spot in SA Upper House as the ABC computer counts differently to the SAEC and D4D may not be ahead in certain parts of the count using the SAEC method.

Will update when I have more news.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

South Australia and Tasmania elections: Live results

Interim results will be posted on my twitter feed. Full results will be posted on this blog tomorrow or Monday


SA and TAS elections: Live from the battle ground.

Tweets, pics, news etc from people at the scene.

2:15pm - ABC getting the tally room ready.

11:55am - Sarah Hanson-Young helping the Greens in Waite. (SA)












11:50am - Not much chatter happening at the moment but it is early days.

SA and TAS predictions

During my seat by seat preview of the Tasmanian election I ended up predicting 10 ALP 10 LIB and 5 GRN I will stick with that because I don't like changing predictions. in SA my prediction is that the ALP will just hold on but it seems like it's going to be very, very close.


Results will be posted here and tweeted when they are available.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Conroy's attack on Electronic Frontiers Australia.

During Senate Question Time yesterday (15th March, 2010) Senator Conroy used a question about Australia being placed on the Reporters Without Borders watch list. He used this question to launch an attack on Electronic Frontiers Australia. I mentioned this on Twitter and was asked exactly what he said and if there was a video available. I've decided to put the transcript here. (The quote doesn't seem that bad when it's just words on a screen but believe me when I say he shouty and all riled up)

Sue Boyce (LIB - QLD)
My question is to the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Senator Conroy. I refer to the decision by Reporters Without Borders to put Australia number one on a list of countries ‘under surveillance’ in its Internet Enemiesreport because ‘the government wants to set up a filtering system never before seen in a democracy’. Is the minister concerned that his mandatory internet censorship plan has put Australia alongside countries like Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Belarus, Thailand and Turkey on the ‘under surveillance’ list in the eyes of the international community?


Stephen Conroy (ALP - VIC)
I thank Senator Boyce for that question. Unfortunately, Reporters Without Borders have been seriously misled, much like many people in this chamber, about what the government is actually proposing. It is wrong in the facts about what the government is proposing and it is wrong in terms of its comparison with other countries. Let me be very clear so that this chamber understands exactly what this government is proposing. On 15 December, we announced new measures to enhance the existing cybersafety policy. What we have indicated we will block is content that has been refused classification—material that is not currently available in a newsagent, in a book store, on a DVD, at the movies or on your television. That is the only material that is proposed to be blocked.
What Reporters Without Borders are continually being told is that that material that is proposed to be blocked is unwanted content or inappropriate content. That is not the policy that we are taking forward and that we have announced. What we have announced is perfectly clear. Anyone in this chamber or anyone who talks to Reporters Without Borders who tries to suggest that anything other than material included in the RC classification is subject to the filter is misleading all Australians. Let me be very clear: the material under the RC classification is material like child pornography, pro-rape websites and pro-bestiality websites—material of that nature. You cannot buy it on DVD and you cannot buy it a book store. (Time expired)

Boyce
Mr President, I ask a supplementary question. We seem to have a Johnny-onestep situation here, where the Senate and Reporters Without Borders do not know what is going on. No-one in the community except the minister does. Isn’t Reporters Without Borders right when it states, ‘Even though a true national debate on the subject is needed, Senator Conroy has made such a discussion very problematic by branding his critics as child pornography advocates’?


Conroy
Once again, the material that has been supplied to Reporters Without Borders comes from Electronic Frontiers Australia, who have been challenged publicly on a number of occasions to produce a quote where I have ever said that. After six months, they have been unwilling to provide one quote. And I challenge you to produce a quote where I have suggested that because someone has a disagreement on this issue that they are a paedophile or a supporter of paedophiles. I challenge each and every one of you to come up with such a quote, because it does not exist. Electronic Frontiers Australia have run one of the most disgraceful misinformation campaigns and have misled Australians.
But if you want further evidence of why this is not getting debated in the mainstream, let me take you to the Hungry Beast ABC show, a show that advocates against our policy. It commissioned a survey of 1,000 Australians by a reputable company. What did it find? Eighty per cent of Australians support the government’s policy. (Time expired)

Boyce
Mr President, I ask a further supplementary question. In the circumstances, I doubt the minister can assist, given that everyone except him appears to be misled. But is the minister aware that Reporters Without Borders describe his proposal as ‘a draconian filtering system’? Is this the reason that many of his Labor colleagues, including Senator Kate Lundy, remain deeply opposed to it?

Conroy
Let me clarify yet again: refused classification is material that each and every one in this chamber opposes being available in books, on TV, in cinemas and on DVD. But apparently this new distribution platform, otherwise known as the internet, should be something sacred. It should not have to play by the rules of Australia. I have met with representatives of international companies who say, ‘We think your refused classification system is wrong.’ It is very kind of those companies to come to Australia and tell us that we are not in charge of our classification system. We have put out a paper and invited anyone who is concerned to suggest ways that we can ensure that the material on the list stays confined to that in the refused classification category. If you have a genuine concern about this issue, libertarians, you should be participating in this process. (Time expired)

Monday, March 15, 2010

Want a free Oz Lotto Ticket? Vote for Tim Parish.

It's true. Tim Parish is trying to bribe his way into office. Below are some screenshots from Tim's website in which he says the following

GIVE ME YOUR No. 1 VOTE & I WILL WORK FOR YOU



I understand that getting elected as an independent maybe as difficult as winning the lottery. In recognition of this, if elected, I will give every registered voter in the electorate of Bass one (1) Super 7 Oz Lotto ticket irrespective of whether they voted for me.

Now, Tim may think he can flout the rules by saying that everyone gets a ticket whether they vote for him or not but I'm almost certain this is still classed as "bribing" or "buying votes". any lawyer or Electoral Officer/Commissioner want to correct me? Here are the "terms & conditions" (I've made the text bigger)on Tim's site and below are the screen shots.

(More on this here)

UPDATE: Tasmania's Electoral Commissioner has said this is lawful. I'll repeat that, he said it IS lawful
Terms and Conditions of Election Coupon



1. For the purposes of these Terms and Conditions the following words have the following meanings: “Coupon” means this election brochure distributed by Parish “Parish” means Timothy Noel Parish of 75 Low Head Road, George Town “Eligible Person” means a person who is recorded on the electoral roll as being resident Within the electorate of Bass in Tasmania and has not already redeemed a Coupon; and “Ticket” means one (1) mid week Super 7 Lotto ticket to the value of $1.10.2. An Eligible Person may redeem the Coupon in exchange for a Ticket, PROVIDED THAT: (a) Parish is duly elected in the electorate of Bass as a member of the House of Assembly of Parliament in the Tasmanian State Election to be held on 20 March 2010; (b) The limitation period for disputing the election of Parish pursuant to the Electoral Act 2004 (“Act”) has expired. (c) There is no application before any Court, Tribunal or like forum disputing the Election of Parish. 3. An Eligible Person may only redeem this Coupon by: (a) Attending at the locations, dates and times to be advertised in the Examiner Newspaper on the Wednesday following the date on which all of the events specified in clause 2 have been satisfied. (b) presenting this Coupon together with photo identification of themselves to Parish; 4. Notwithstanding any part of these Terms and Conditions, Parish may refuse to redeem the Coupon for a Ticket in the event that, in his opinion: (a) The Coupon is not genuine; or(b) The person seeking to redeem this Coupon is not an Eligible Person. 5. This Coupon is valid for three (3) months following the date on which all of the events specified in clause 2 have been satisfied. 6. An Eligible Person cannot redeem this Coupon for a Ticket other than in accordance with these Terms and Conditions.







Essential Report: 56-44 and people's opinions on party attributes.

Today's Essential Report sees a 2% 2PP gain by the ALP. Primary votes are Labor 45%, Coalition 38% Greens 9% Family First 2% and Others 6%.

On the question of which PPL scheme they preferred 40% said the Government's, 24% the Opposition's while 27% said neither and 10% were undecided.

Party Attributes (changes from July 2009)
ALP
Moderate - 63% (-2%)
Will promise to do anything to win votes - 63% (+6%)
Looks after the interest of working families - 57% (-4%)
Professional in it's approach - 55% (-4%)
Understands the problems facing Australia - 54% (-8%)
Has a good team of leaders - 52% (-8%)
Out of touch with ordinary people - 48% (+4%)
Too Dominated by it's leader - 45% (+6%)
Divided - 36% (+6%)
Keeps it's promises - 33% (-11%)
Extreme - 26% (+1%)

LIB 
Moderate - 50% (no change)
Will promise to do anything to win votes - 72% (+5%)
Looks after the interest of working families - 35% (+4%)
Professional in it's approach - 47% (+6%)
Understands the problems facing Australia - 43% (-1%)
Has a good team of leaders - 31% (+2%)
Out of touch with ordinary people - 58% (-2%)
Too Dominated by it's leader - 44% (+10%)
Divided - 66% (-8%)
Keeps it's promises - 23% (-5%)
Extreme - 38% (+2%)

Comparison
(Example - 'Moderate - ALP 13%' means 13% more people believe the ALP is moderate than the Libs)
Moderate - ALP 13%
Will promise to do anything to win votes - LIB 9%
Looks after the interest of working families - ALP 22%
Professional in it's approach - ALP 8%
Understands the problems facing Australia - ALP 11%
Has a good team of leaders - ALP 21%
Out of touch with ordinary people - LIB 10%
Too Dominated by it's leader - ALP 1%
Divided - LIB 30%
Keeps it's promises - ALP 10%
Extreme - LIB 12%

 There's also a few questions in there about media.

South Australia Election - Upper House preferences.

Let's take a look at how some of the parties in the SA election are distributing preferences in the upper house.
(D4D = Dignity for Disability, FF = Family First, DLP = Democratic Labor Party)


ALP (Group C) - The Greens are first followed by Family First then Fair Land Tax and The Nats.  D4D is 5th, followed by a whole heap of independents and micros. The Libs are 3rd last with One Nation Last.

D4D (Group G) - First is David Winderlich's group followed by The Dems, FF and a heap of Independents and micros. The Greens, Labor and Liberal are all right towards the end but once again One Nation are in last place.

GRN (Group J) - Independents to start off. FREE Australia and D4D are pretty high. ALP is about halfway. LIB about 3/4s of the way down. FF and One Nation 2nd last and 3rd last respsectably. Trevor Grace is last of all.

FF (Group K) - Save RAH in top spot. Then the DLP, One Nation and The Shooters Party. D4D just before halfway, Libs just after halfway. Greens and a couple of Independents bring up the rear.

DLP (Gorup O) - A couple of Indys then FF and a couple of the Libs and a couple of ALP. The rest of the Libs and ALP are spread out further down. The Greens and a few more Indys are down the bottom.

LIB (Group S) - FF takes top prize here. Then Save RAH, Fair Land Tax and D4D. The Nats are halfway and The Greens are surprising high though past halfway. ALP 3rd last with One Nation last again.

NAT (Group W) - Fair Land Tax then DLP and Libs followed by ALP and D4D. The Greens are also quite high while United Party is last.

The big winners here are Dignity for Disability. I did a quick calculation and they got in in 11th place on a ton of preferences. It could be any of the smaller parties or an independent though depending on primary votes.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Tasmanian State Election preview - Lyons

Lyons

Area
Largest electorate in size covering just under half the state.Mostly made up of parts that didn't fit in other seats.

(Click for bigger)

Retirements
None

Elected 2006
1. Michael Polley (ALP)
2. David Llewellyn (ALP)
3. Rene Hidding (LIB)
4. Heather Butler (ALP)
5. Tim Morris (GRN)

2006 Vote
ALP - 51.9%
LIB - 29.96%
GRN - 15.82%
TF - 1.44%
UNG - 0.88%

Candidates
A. GRN - Karen Cassidy, Jackie Graham, Tim Morris, Sharon Prior, Karl Stevens
B. LIB - Leigh Gray, Rene Hidding, Jane Howlett, Jim Playstead, Mark Shelton
C. ALP - Heather Butler, David Llewellyn, Michael Polley, Brendan Sullivan, Rebecca White, Nick Wright


Prediction
ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
(I made my prediction for all seats about a 2 weeks ago and am not going to change them during the campiagn, this may result in the predictions being way off)

Feel like making a prediction? Leave a comment and let me know.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Tasmanian State Election Preview - Franklin

Franklin
Area
Franklin is split in 2 parts by and surrounds Denison.Most of the voters in Franklin are from Calrence City and parts of Brighton. Other parts include Kingston, Huon Valley and Macquarie Island.

(Click for bigger)

Retirements
None (Paul Lennon and Paula Wriedt have both resigned since the 2006 election)

Elected 2006
1. Paul Lennon (ALP)
2. Will Hodgman (LIB)
3. Nick McKIm (GRN)
4. Lara Giddings (ALP)
5. Paula Wriedt (ALP)

2006 Vote
ALP - 47.17%
LIB - 31.37%
GRN - 19.42%
SA - 0.40%
Ungrouped - 1.65%

Candidates

(Links are to either candidate website, facebook page or twitter page to help you make an informed decision.Where no link is available I will provide a small snippet about the candidate and/or policies. Candidates are listed in alphabetical order, on the ballot the order is randomised and will vary from ballot to ballot)
A. GRN - Deborah Brewer, Adam Burling, Mark Harrison, Wendy Heatley, Nick McKim
B. SA - Jenny Forward
C. ALP - Ross Butler, Kate Churchill, Lara Giddings, Daniel Hulme, David O'Byrne
D. LIB - David Compton, Will Hodgman, Jillian Law, Tony Mulder, Jacquie Petrusma
Ungrouped - John Forster


John Forster is an accountant.


Prediction
ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
(I made my prediction for all seats about a week & half ago and am not going to change them during the campiagn, this may result in the predictions being way off)

Feel like making a prediction? Leave a comment and let me know. 




Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Tasmanian State Election preview - Denison

Denison
Area
Denison covers Glenorchy and Hobart and extends from Austins Ferry  to Browns River at Kingston. It also contains a small part of Kingbourough council.



Retirements
Michael Hodgman (LIB)

Elected 2006
1. Peg Putt (GRN)
2. Michael Hodgman (LIB)
3. David Bartlett (ALP)
4. Lisa Singh (ALP)
5. Graeme Sturges (ALP)
(Cassy O'Connor (GRN) was elected in 2008 to replace Peg Putt.

2006 Vote
ALP - 46.94%
LIB - 26.55%
GRN - 24.07%
IND - 0.72%
TFP - 0.53%
SA - 0.39%
OTH - 0.81%

Candidates
(Links are to either candidate website, facebook page or twitter page to help you make an informed decision.Where no link is available I will provide a small snippet about the candidate and/or policies. Candidates are listed in alphabetical order, on the ballot the order is randomised and will vary from ballot to ballot)
A. IND - Andrew Wilkie
B. ALP - Scott Bacon, David Bartlett, Madeline Ogilvie, Lisa Singh,Graeme Sturges
C. LIB - Elise Archer, Jenny Branch, Matthew Groom, Richard Lowrie, Matt Stevenson
D. GRN - Penelope Ann, Helen Burnet, Peter Cover, Katrika Franks, Cassy O'Connor
E. SA - Melanie Barnes

Prediction
2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
(I made my prediction for all seats about a week & half ago and am not going to change them during the campiagn, this may result in the predictions being way off)

Feel like making a prediction? Leave a comment and let me know.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Tasmanian State Election preview - Braddon

Braddon
Area
Braddon encompasses the West and North West Coasts of Tasmania. The cities of Burnie and Devonport are included. Other major towns are Currie, Latrobe, Penguin, Rosebery, Queenstown, Smithton, Stanley, Strahan, Ulverstone, Waratah,  Wynyard and Zeehan. King Island is also in Braddon.






Retirements
Steve Kons (ALP)


Elected 2006
1. Bryan Green (ALP)
2. Jeremy Rockliff (LIB)
3. Steve Kons (ALP)
4. Brenton Best (ALP)
5. Brett Whiteley (LIB)


2006 Vote
ALP - 50.84%
LIB - 37.27%
GRN - 10.31%
IND - 1.58%


Candidates
(Links are to either candidate website, facebook page or twitter page to help you make an informed decision.Where no link is available I will provide a small snippet about the candidate and/or policies. Candidates are listed in alphabetical order, on the ballot the order is randomised and will vary from ballot to ballot)
A. ALP - Brenton Best, Shane Broad, Kay Eastley, Bryan Green, Judy Richmond
B. GRN - Ted Field, Claire Gilmour, David Henderson, Melissa Houghton, Paul O'Halloran
C. LIB - Adam Brooks, Grant Dunham, Leonie Hiscutt, Colin Lamont, Philip Lamont, Jeremy Rockliff, Brett Whiteley
Ungrouped - Valerie Blake, Jeremy Kidd


Valerie Blake is Domestic Engineer
Jeremy Kidd is a clown and mime.


Prediction
2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
(I made my prediction for all seats about a week & half ago and am not going to change them during the campiagn, this may result in the predictions being way off)


Feel like making a prediction? Leave a comment and let me know. 

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Dignity For Disability Party candidate in SA election unlikey to survive brain haemorrhage

Sad news coming out of SA with the election just 13 days away.

A prominent advocate for the disabled running in the South Australian election is critically ill in hospital and is unlikely to recover.
Dr Paul Collier from the Dignity for Disability party suffered a brain haemorrhage yesterday and is in the Flinders Medical Centre.
The South Australian Electoral Commission says Dr Collier's name will remain on the Upper House ballot paper and any votes will be redirected to the party's second candidate.
The party's Lower House candidate in the seat of Adelaide, Sam Paior, says his family has urged the party to continue their fight for the disabled.
"Very sad to say he's not expected to survive this event. All of us at D4D [Dignity for Disability] are devastated at the loss and intend to shine his torch even brighter through this election," he said

Dignity for Disablity's facebook page

Tasmanian State Election preview - Bass

Bass
Area
The majority of Bass voters live in Launceston.With the rest coming from Georgetown Council, Dorset Council and the Furneaux group of Islands.

Retirements
Jim Cox (ALP)
Sue Napier (LIB)

Elected 2006
1. Michelle O'Byrne (ALP)
2. Jim Cox (ALP)
3. Peter Gutwein (LIB)
4. Sue Napier (LIB)
5. Kim Booth (GRN)

2006 Vote
ALP - 49.6%
LIB - 33.8%
GRN - 13.6%
OTH - 3.0%

Candidates 
(Links are to either candidate website, facebook page or twitter page to help you make an informed decision.Where no link is available I will provide a small snippet about the candidate and/or policies. Candidates are listed in alphabetical order, on the ballot the order is randomised and will vary from ballot to ballot))
A. ALP - Michelle Cripps, Scott McLean, Michelle O'Byrne, Brant Webb, Brian Wightman
B. GNSJeremy Ball, Kim Booth, Sally Day, Beverly Ernst, Peter Whish-Wilson
C. LIB - Pamela Dakin, Michael Ferguson, Peter Gutwein, Michele McGinty, Nick Pedley
Ungrouped - Jim Collier, Peter Kaye, Tim Parish, Mark Webb, Sven Wiener

Jim Collier is a "river campiagner" and round-the-world yachtsman. He wants to abolish parlimanet.
Tim Parish is a George Town councillor.
Mark Webb is an investor
Sven Wiener has been describer as both a "dairy farmer" and "property developer"

Prediction
2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
(I made my prediction for all seats about a week & half ago and am not going to change them during the campiagn, this may result in the predictions being way off)


Feel like making a prediction? Leave a comment and let me know.

89 candidates to contest Tasmanian election.

89 candidates will contest the Tasmanian state election on the 20th on March. This is down from 95 in 06 and 112 in 02.

Breakdown:
Bass - 20, Braddon - 19, Denison & Franklin 17, Lyons - 16.

Labor - 26 (6 Lyons, 5 all others)
Liberals - 27 (7 Braddon, 5 all others)
Greens - 25 (5 in each)
Independent - 9 (5 Bass, 2 Braddon, 1 Denison, 1 Franklin, 0 Lyons)
Socialist Alliance - 2 (1 Denison, 1 Franklin)

Andrew Wilkie got the 100 required signatures to get a group column and drew column A in Denison.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Robertson pre-selection.

UPDATE: 6:20pm -  Deborah O'Neill has won the preselection. 98-67


UPDATE 3:15pm

From @latikambourke - A Labor Party preselector has left his hospital bed to vote AGAINST Belinda Neal saying he hopes the result shifts in favour of rank-n-file.

Today there will be an interesting pre-selection in Belinda Neal's seat of Robertson. Neal has resisted calls for her to resign since Iguanagate. Today she faces up against Deborah O'Neill in one of the most watched pre-selections in recent memory. With just 170 votes to be counted the result could be known at any time. This post will be updated with results, news and reactions on twitter.
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