Monday, August 31, 2009

Essential Research. Labor leads 60-40.

The latest Essential Reserach survey is great news for the Rudd Labor government. The 2PP vote has Labor leading 60%-40% up from 58-42 in the last survey. The promary votes are Labor 51%, Coaltion 33%, Greens 8%, Independent/Others 6% and Family First 2%.

Repsondents were split 39%-39% on whether the Libs/Nats should stay as a Coaliton with 21% undecided.

In other results 62% of respondents approve of the the $20 billion gas deal agreed to with China and 59% of people thought Ricky Ponting should stay on as Captain of the Australian Cricket Team.

These results and more here

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Random seat changes:NSW

I've decided to do a report on some random seat changes in NSw that are of interest to me (either seats I know about because they are close to me or seats that may have a bearing on the next election)

Chifley (my seat): Gains: Shanes Park, Marsden Park and Colebee from Greenway (small, rural Liberal-voting suburbs.) Losses: A bit of Blacktown to Greenway.

Greenway: Back to being a small Blacktown seat instead of a huge Hawkesbury seat.
Gains: A bit of Blacktown from Greenway. Seven Hills, Kings Langley, Lalor Park and a bit more from Parramatta. Losses: Heaps in the Hawkesbury area including Richmond and Windsor to Macquarie.

Macarthur: Gains: Warragamba and Badgery Creeks from Fowler. A small amount of Campbelltown from Werriwa. Losses: Oak, Picton and some more small suburbs to Hume.

Kingsford-Smith: Losses: Subrubs in The City of Sydney council area to Sydney.

Watson, Barton and Banks
: Change a fair bit and take in St George.

Bennelong, Bradfield, Mackellar, Wentoworth, North Sydney, Dobell, Robertson and Granydler are pretty much unchanged

Monday, August 10, 2009

Federal Seat Changes.

As a result of new boundaries in some states and by elections the notional seat count is now: ALP 88 (up from 83), LIB 50 (down from 55), NAT 9 (down from 10) and IND 3 (up from 2).

NSW (loss of 1 seat) : The safe Labor seat of Reid held by Laurie Ferguson has been abolished.

The marginal Liberal seats of Gilmore, Macarthur and Greenway held by Joanna Gash, Pat Farmer and Louise Markus respectively become marginal Labor seats.

The Safe Labor seat of Macquarie held by Bob Debus now becomes a marginal Labor seat with a margin of just .1%

The safe Nationals seat of Calare held by John Cobb is now a marginal Nationals seat.

Not much happening in other states besides Swan (WA) held by Steve Irons becomes a marginal Labor seat again and Herbert (QLD) held by Peter Lindsay going from marginal Liberal to marginal Labor.

(Please keep in mind these are draft changes and final changes may change the notional margins again.)

With thanks to Antony Green for going through the AEC report and doing an analysis for us.

Andrew Robb as next Liberal Party leader?

That's the latest coming out of Canberra. It might work for a while but he won't win the next election. In fact nobody in the Coalition can barring a major stuff-up from Rudd and Co. I can't see anyone challenging Turnbull until after the election loss and he may in fact resign after the loss.
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