How do the Libs solve a problem like Greenway?

A good result overall for the Coalition should not mask the problem the party has in appealing to voters in Western Sydney. Greenway is a seat the Liberal party had been targeting and should have been one of the first seats in the country marked down as a Coalition gain but history will record a swing to Labor. This is the 2nd election in a row the Liberal Party has failed to win Greenway and make sweeping inroads in Western Sydney. The party needs to look at it's preselection process in the area, they've been running dud candidates for a long time now. It never used to matter too much because the whole of Western Sydney was seen as Labor heartland but as Lindsay, state election results in the area and even Blacktown Council (now with a Liberal Party mayor for the first time ever) show, people in Wetsern Sydney will vote for the Liberal Party if you give them a good reason to. What this post is attempting to do is list potential candidates for Greenway and/or Chifley in the future (a fantasy football for political tragics), their strengths and weaknesses and their likelihood of being preselected.


Jacqueline Donaldson
Jacqueline is a 2nd term councillor on Blacktown Council.. 
Pros: Has a strong media profile in the area and would pick up votes on name recognition alone. Gets on well with the Greens in the area due to joint environmental and fair trade campaigns. Could pick up votes from progressives. 
Cons: Could be too progressive for the Liberals in the area, Has had to defend the councils extremely controversial decision to close Mt Druitt Pools, her sons disastrous 2010 campaign for the seat of Chifley.
Chance of preselection: Low - She has control of some numbers but has said she doesn't want to run federally. Would be a shoo-in for Chifley preslection if she wanted it. 


Jess Diaz
Jess is a Liberal on Blacktown Council and migration agent.
Pros: Has a strong name recognition, controls the numbers for Greenway
Cons: His son Jaymes, has ran for the Liberals in 2007 in Chifley and while not a disastrous campaign it didn't exactly set the world on fire.
Chance of preselection: Low - His if he wants it but I doubt he does

 


          
          Nick Tyrrell 
          Nick is a former Liberal Councillor on Blacktown Council
          Pros: Young, smart, gets on well with people from all sides of politics.
         Cons: Lost preselection for the state seat of Riverstone and wasn't too happy about it. 
           Chance of preselection: Low


Venus Priest
Venus is a small business owner
Pros: Strong ties to the business community and Filipino community. Managed a 15.8% primary and 18.6% 2PP  swing as the Liberal candidate for Mt Druitt in 2011 and 5.4% primary and 7.35% 2PP swing as Liberal candidate for Chifley in 2010.
Cons:  Has already run and lost twice. 
Chance of preslection: High - Well liked in the party and by the public. Does she want to run again though?


 Isabelle White 
Liberal Councillor on Blacktown Council
Pros: Young, managed an almost 2% primary vote increase for the Liberals in Chifley in the 2013 Federal Election
Cons: Inexperienced, had a constant minder with her who looked like he was directing her every movement, (even going so far as to tell her not to put her hand out to give someone a handshake if they had only grabbed an ALP how-to-vote when the media was there) Has had to defend unpopular council polices like the clousre of Mt Druitt Pool and removing pensior rebates on land rates.
                                         Chance of preselection: High


Angry Anderson
Rock star
Pros: Massive public profile. Can generate media anywhere. Is a bit like Pauline Hanson in people think he "says it like it is" Tony Abbott's preferred candidate for Greenway.
Cons: Managed just 10.7% for the Nationals in Throsby at the 2013 election, although that was a 4% increase. May look like he's seat shopping. 
Chance of preselection: Mid. Would be a shoo-in if Abbott got his way.



Matt Adamson 
Former professional rugby league star.
Pros: Big public profile. Western Sydney is rugby league heartland. Another Abbott pick for Greenway
Cons: Ran for the Palmer United Party as their lead NSW Senate candidate.
Chance of preselection: Very low. Would have to switch parties.

For the Liberal party's sake let's hope there's more talent coming through. If I had to pick out of this lot I'd go with Venus Priest and Jacqueline Donaldson.

Why the Diaz campaign was always going to be a disaster

Unless you've been living in a cave for the past few months you have had heard of Jaymes Diaz and *that* interview. It was a gaffe of the highest magnitude and the publicity surrounding it guaranteed his loss in the most marginal seat in NSW - Greenway. Greenway is a seat the Liberal party has been targeting and should have been one of the first seats in the country marked down as a Coalition gain but history will record a 2.32% swing TO Labor and Diaz will go down as a 2-time failed candidate in a seat he should have won.

Yes, Diaz has now lost Greenway twice, his campaign in 2010 was almost as invisible as his campaign this year, he didn't attend candidate forums, he was hardly at pre-poll meeting voters, he didn't go to community group events. His failure in 2010 was due to being invisible to voters, this is because he was not very confident at public speaking. In fact when I met him in 2010 and again this year both times he didn't make eye contact and one of his minders did the talking. This time, after that gaffe went viral Diaz went into hiding and wouldn't even return calls or respond to emails from the local NewsCorp paper - The Blacktown Advocate. In fact, his gaffe was so worrying to head office they banned almost all Sydney candidates from speaking to media and attending community forums. Without the scrutiny from the voters, how does the party expect an elected member to stand up to the scrutiny of Parliament and the Canberra Press Gallery? In the end the only Liberal candidate to pick up a seat was one of the only ones who actually attended a community forum and put themselves in front of the voters to be scrutinised - Fiona Scott in Lindsay. It's probably a good thing for the Liberal Party that they didn't pick up more seats in Western Sydney having not known how some of these candidates perform under pressure.

The signs were there for the Liberal Party about Diaz being a dud candidate but because his father, Liberal Councillor on Blacktown Council, Jess Diaz controls the numbers in the area he was preselected again. If the Liberal Party wanted to win Greenway they needed a different candidate. They were told this from a sources (including me privately to a few Liberal members) and while Tony Abbott didn't want Diaz as the candidate (he approached both Angry Anderson who ended up running for The Nationals in Throsby and increased their primary vote almost 5% and Matthew Adamson who ended up as the lead Palmer United Party Senate candidate), in the end Jess Diaz made sure his son got the nomination.

The Liberals in Blacktown have a history of preselecting dud candidates in the 2 Blacktown seats. Diaz in Greenway in 2013 and 2010, David Barker (son of Liberal councillor Jacqueline Donaldson) in 2010 who the party was forced to disendorse due to anti-Islamic posts on his Facebook page. , Jess Diaz himself in Chifley in 2007.

The Liberal Party took control of Blacktown Council for the first time ever after elections in 2012 and came close to winning the seat of Blacktown at the 2011 state election. They should have realised by now that there are a lot of affluent people in the area and most of the Labor voters are socially conservative. If they can get their act together and start preselecting decent candidates they might be able turn the once Labor stronghold of Blacktown and surrounding suburbs Liberal and if they can tap more into the social conservatism while not scaring people about their rights at work they might just even be able to turn Mt Druitt marginal.