New Federal Pendulum

The number shown is the 2 party preferred vote. The margin is the number above 50, for example, a 2pp vote of 54.4% means the margin is 4.4%. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Australian Labor Party
Marginal
Robertson (NSW)	Belinda Neal	ALP	50.11
Flynn (Qld)	Chris Trevor	ALP	50.16
Solomon (NT)	Damian Hale	ALP	50.19
Corangamite (Vic)	Darren Cheeseman	ALP	50.85
Bass (Tas)	Jodie Campbell	ALP	51.00
Hasluck (WA)	Sharryn Jackson	ALP	51.26
Bennelong (NSW)	Maxine McKew	ALP	51.40
Deakin (Vic)	Mike Symon	ALP	51.41
Braddon (Tas)	Sid Sidebottom	ALP	51.44
Petrie (Qld)	Yvette D'Ath	ALP	52.05
Page (NSW)	Janelle Saffin	ALP	52.36
Forde (Qld)	Brett Raguse	ALP	52.91
Dawson (Qld)	James Bidgood	ALP	53.21
Eden Monaro (NSW)	Mike Kelly	ALP	53.40
Longman (Qld)	Jon Sullivan	ALP	53.57
Dobell (NSW)	Craig Thomson	ALP	53.90
Leichhardt (Qld)	Jim Turnour	ALP	54.03
Kingston (SA)	Amanda Rishworth	ALP	54.42
Blair (Qld)	Shayne Neumann	ALP	54.48
Franklin (Tas)	Julie Collins	ALP	54.48
Bonner (Qld)	Kerry Rea	ALP	54.53
Melbourne (Vic)	Lindsay Tanner	ALP	54.71 v GRN
Moreton (Qld)	Graham Perrett	ALP	54.75
Hindmarsh (SA)	Steve Georganas	ALP	55.05
Brand (WA)	Gary Gray	ALP	55.62
Fairly safe
Bendigo (Vic)	Steve Gibbons	ALP	56.13
Wakefield (SA)	Nick Champion	ALP	56.59
Brisbane (Qld)	Arch Bevis	ALP	56.76
Lindsay (NSW)	David Bradbury	ALP	56.78
Parramatta (NSW)	Julie Owens	ALP	56.88
Macquarie (NSW)	Bob Debus	ALP	57.04
Melbourne Ports (Vic)	Michael Danby	ALP	57.15
Lowe (NSW)	John Murphy	ALP	57.37
Chisholm (Vic)	Anna Burke	ALP	57.38
Isaacs (Vic)	Mark Dreyfus	ALP	57.69
Makin (SA)	Tony Zappia	ALP	57.70
Ballarat (Vic)	Catherine King	ALP	58.15
Bruce (Vic)	Alan Griffin	ALP	58.32
Adelaide (SA)	Kate Ellis	ALP	58.53
Lilley (Qld)	Wayne Swan	ALP	58.59
Lyons (Tas)	Dick Adams	ALP	58.78
Perth (WA)	Stephen Smith	ALP	58.85
Richmond (NSW)	Justine Elliot	ALP	58.87
Corio (Vic)	Richard Marles	ALP	58.93
Jagajaga (Vic)	Jenny Macklin	ALP	58.98
Fremantle (WA)	Melissa Parke	ALP	59.14
Safe
Banks (NSW)	Daryl Melham	ALP	61.08
Lingiari (NT)	Warren Snowdon	ALP	61.16
Holt (Vic)	Anthony Byrne	ALP	61.63
Rankin (Qld)	Craig Emerson	ALP	61.74
Canberra (ACT)	Annette Ellis	ALP	61.82
Barton (NSW)	Robert McClelland	ALP	62.10
Griffith (Qld)	Kevin Rudd	ALP	62.32
Capricornia (Qld)	Kirsten Livermore	ALP	62.71
Charlton (NSW)	Greg Combet	ALP	62.87
Hotham (Vic)	Simon Crean	ALP	63.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW)	Peter Garrett	ALP	63.29
Prospect (NSW)	Chris Bowen	ALP	63.46
Oxley (Qld)	Bernie Ripoll	ALP	64.13
Shortland (NSW)	Jill Hall	ALP	64.74
Fraser (ACT)	Bob McMullan	ALP	65.07
Werriwa (NSW)	Chris Hayes	ALP	65.24
Maribyrnong (Vic)	Bill Shorten	ALP	65.32
Lalor (Vic)	Julia Gillard	ALP	65.53
Denison (Tas)	Duncan Kerr	ALP	65.63
Newcastle (NSW)	Sharon Grierson	ALP	65.91
Hunter (NSW)	Joel Fitzgibbon	ALP	65.92
Reid (NSW)	Laurie Ferguson	ALP	66.80
Cunningham (NSW)	Sharon Bird	ALP	68.13
Fowler (NSW)	Julia Irwin	ALP	68.25
Blaxland (NSW)	Jason Clare	ALP	68.37
Calwell (Vic)	Maria Vamvakinou	ALP	69.33
Sydney (NSW)	Tanya Plibersek	ALP	69.50
Port Adelaide (SA)	Mark Butler	ALP	69.75
Very safe
Watson (NSW)	Tony Burke	ALP	70.33
Chifley (Vic)	Roger Price	ALP	70.66
Scullin (Vic)	Harry Jenkins	ALP	70.85
Gorton (Vic)	Brendan O'Connor	ALP	71.22
Gellibrand (Vic)	Nicola Roxon	ALP	71.46
Wills (Vic)	Kelvin Thomson	ALP	72.41
Throsby (NSW)	Jennie George	ALP	73.46
Grayndler (NSW)	Anthony Albanese	ALP	74.93
Batman (Vic)	Martin Ferguson	ALP	75.95

NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Liberal/National coalition
Marginal
McEwen (Vic)	Fran Bailey	LP	50.01
Bowman (Qld)	Andrew Laming	LP	50.04
Swan (WA)	Steve Irons	LP	50.11
Dickson (Qld)	Peter Dutton	LP	50.13
Herbert (Qld)	Peter Lindsay	LP	50.21
La Trobe (Vic)	Jason Wood	LP	50.51
Macarthur (NSW)	Patrick Farmer	LP	50.72
Sturt (SA)	Christopher Pyne	LP	50.94
Cowper (NSW)	Luke Hartsuyker	NP	51.23
Stirling (WA)	Michael Keenan	LP	51.29
Paterson (NSW)	Bob Baldwin	LP	51.51
Hinkler (Qld)	Paul Neville	NP	51.69
Cowan (WA)	Luke Simpkins	LP	51.71
Hughes (NSW)	Danna Vale	LP	52.16
Kalgoorlie (WA)	Barry Haase	LP	52.58
Boothby (SA)	Andrew Southcott	LP	52.93
Fairfax (Qld)	Alex Somlyay	LP	53.01
Fisher (Qld)	Peter Slipper	LP	53.10
Ryan (Qld)	Michael Johnson	LP	53.82
Wentworth (NSW)	Malcolm Turnbull	LP	53.85
Dunkley (Vic)	Bruce Billson	LP	54.04
Gilmore NSW)	Joanna Gash	LP	54.07
Hume (NSW)	Alby Schultz	LP	54.16
Grey (SA)	Rowan Ramsey	LP	54.43
Greenway (NSW)	Louise Markus	LP	54.50
McMillan (Vic)	Russell Broadbent	LP	54.79
Aston (Vic)	Chris Pearce	LP	55.05
North Sydney (NSW)	Joe Hockey	LP	55.38
Canning (WA)	Don Randall	LP	55.58
Forrest (WA)	Nola Marino	LP	55.83
Gippsland (Vic)	Peter McGauran	NP	55.91
Casey (Vic)	Tony Smith	LP	55.93
Fairly safe
Menzies (Vic)	Kevin Andrews	LP	56.02
Goldstein (Vic)	Andrew Robb	LP	56.05
Cook (NSW)	Scott Morrison	LP	56.57
Higgins (Vic)	Peter Costello	LP	57.04
Mayo (SA)	Alexander Downer	LP	57.06
Wannon (Vic)	David Hawker	LP	57.47
Groom (Qld)	Ian Macfarlane	LP	58.22
Flinders (Vic)	Greg Hunt	LP	58.25
Wide Bay (Qld)	Warren Truss	NP	58.47
Lyne (NSW)	Mark Vaile	NP	58.58
Tangney (WA)	Dennis Jensen	LP	58.68
McPherson (Qld)	Margaret May	LP	58.83
Berowra (NSW)	Philip Ruddock	LP	58.94
Pearce (WA)	Judith Moylan	LP	59.07
Moore (WA)	Mal Washer	LP	59.17
Indi (Vic)	Sophie Mirabella	LP	59.19
Barker (SA)	Patrick Secker	LP	59.45
Warringah (NSW)	Tony Abbott	LP	59.50
Kooyong (Vic)	Petro Georgiou	LP	59.53
Safe
Fadden (Qld)	Stuart Robert	LP	60.20
Farrer (NSW)	Sussan Ley	LP	61.17
Mitchell (NSW)	Alex Hawke	LP	61.59
Calare (NSW)	John Cobb	NP	62.05
Mackellar (NSW)	Bronwyn Bishop	LP	62.42
Parkes (NSW)	Mark Coulton	NP	63.04
Bradfield (NSW)	Brendan Nelson	LP	63.45
Curtin (WA)	Julie Bishop	LP	63.57
Moncrieff (Qld)	Steve Ciobo	LP	64.01
Maranoa (Qld)	Bruce Scott	NP	64.44
Riverina (NSW)	Kay Hull	NP	66.23
O'Connor (WA)	Wilson Tuckey	LP	66.55
Murray (Vic)	Sharman Stone	LP	68.26
Very safe
Mallee (Vic)	John Forrest	NP	71.27
Independents
Kennedy (Qld)	Bob Katter	IND	66.29 v ALP
New England (NSW)	Tony Windsor	IND	74.33 v NP