Sunday, February 17, 2008

New Federal Pendulum

The number shown is the 2 party preferred vote. The margin is the number above 50, for example, a 2pp vote of 54.4% means the margin is 4.4%. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Australian Labor Party
Robertson (NSW) Belinda Neal ALP 50.11
Flynn (Qld) Chris Trevor ALP 50.16
Solomon (NT) Damian Hale ALP 50.19
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.85
Bass (Tas) Jodie Campbell ALP 51.00
Hasluck (WA) Sharryn Jackson ALP 51.26
Bennelong (NSW) Maxine McKew ALP 51.40
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 51.41
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP 51.44
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP 52.05
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 52.36
Forde (Qld) Brett Raguse ALP 52.91
Dawson (Qld) James Bidgood ALP 53.21
Eden Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 53.40
Longman (Qld) Jon Sullivan ALP 53.57
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson ALP 53.90
Leichhardt (Qld) Jim Turnour ALP 54.03
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 54.42
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 54.48
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 54.48
Bonner (Qld) Kerry Rea ALP 54.53
Melbourne (Vic) Lindsay Tanner ALP 54.71 v GRN
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.75
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 55.05
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 55.62
Fairly safe
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP 56.13
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 56.59
Brisbane (Qld) Arch Bevis ALP 56.76
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 56.78
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 56.88
Macquarie (NSW) Bob Debus ALP 57.04
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 57.15
Lowe (NSW) John Murphy ALP 57.37
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 57.38
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 57.69
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 57.70
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 58.15
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 58.32
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 58.53
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 58.59
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP 58.78
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP 58.85
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 58.87
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 58.93
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 58.98
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 59.14
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 61.08
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 61.16
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 61.63
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP 61.74
Canberra (ACT) Annette Ellis ALP 61.82
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP 62.10
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP 62.32
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 62.71
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP 62.87
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP 63.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP 63.29
Prospect (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 63.46
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 64.13
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 64.74
Fraser (ACT) Bob McMullan ALP 65.07
Werriwa (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 65.24
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 65.32
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP 65.53
Denison (Tas) Duncan Kerr ALP 65.63
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP 65.91
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 65.92
Reid (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 66.80
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 68.13
Fowler (NSW) Julia Irwin ALP 68.25
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 68.37
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 69.33
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 69.50
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 69.75
Very safe
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 70.33
Chifley (Vic) Roger Price ALP 70.66
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP 70.85
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 71.22
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP 71.46
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 72.41
Throsby (NSW) Jennie George ALP 73.46
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 74.93
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP 75.95
Liberal/National coalition
McEwen (Vic) Fran Bailey LP 50.01
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LP 50.04
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LP 50.11
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LP 50.13
Herbert (Qld) Peter Lindsay LP 50.21
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LP 50.51
Macarthur (NSW) Patrick Farmer LP 50.72
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LP 50.94
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NP 51.23
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LP 51.29
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LP 51.51
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville NP 51.69
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LP 51.71
Hughes (NSW) Danna Vale LP 52.16
Kalgoorlie (WA) Barry Haase LP 52.58
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LP 52.93
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LP 53.01
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper LP 53.10
Ryan (Qld) Michael Johnson LP 53.82
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LP 53.85
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LP 54.04
Gilmore NSW) Joanna Gash LP 54.07
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LP 54.16
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LP 54.43
Greenway (NSW) Louise Markus LP 54.50
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LP 54.79
Aston (Vic) Chris Pearce LP 55.05
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LP 55.38
Canning (WA) Don Randall LP 55.58
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LP 55.83
Gippsland (Vic) Peter McGauran NP 55.91
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LP 55.93
Fairly safe
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LP 56.02
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LP 56.05
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LP 56.57
Higgins (Vic) Peter Costello LP 57.04
Mayo (SA) Alexander Downer LP 57.06
Wannon (Vic) David Hawker LP 57.47
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LP 58.22
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LP 58.25
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss NP 58.47
Lyne (NSW) Mark Vaile NP 58.58
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LP 58.68
McPherson (Qld) Margaret May LP 58.83
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LP 58.94
Pearce (WA) Judith Moylan LP 59.07
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LP 59.17
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LP 59.19
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LP 59.45
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LP 59.50
Kooyong (Vic) Petro Georgiou LP 59.53
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LP 60.20
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LP 61.17
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LP 61.59
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NP 62.05
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LP 62.42
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NP 63.04
Bradfield (NSW) Brendan Nelson LP 63.45
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LP 63.57
Moncrieff (Qld) Steve Ciobo LP 64.01
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott NP 64.44
Riverina (NSW) Kay Hull NP 66.23
O'Connor (WA) Wilson Tuckey LP 66.55
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LP 68.26
Very safe
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NP 71.27
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter IND 66.29 v ALP
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND 74.33 v NP


  1. Hi.We have just completed a detailed analysis of the 2007 Senate Election.

    We have been concerned about ta number of defects in the way in which the AEC counts the Australian Senate Elections.The system in place was designed to facilitate emailaccount process and is well and truly out of date.


    There are two issues of concern

    1.The way in which the Surplus transfer Value is calculated

    2. The process used in distributing preferences allocated to candidates that are excluded during the count.

    In each case the process adopted and currently in use distorts the outcome of the election.

    Our analysis which has now been confirmed from three different independent sources shows that the Queensland Senate election denied the Australian Green's Party Representation. The Greens should have won the six seat. The fault is in the system that is used to count the vote.

    The effect of the distortion in Te way in which the Australian senate count is done effects all parties. Analysis of the Victorian Senate indicated that the system could have denied the ALP a third seat bu giving the Greens an additional 7,000 votes above and beyond what they should have received in a more accurate counting system.

    This issue has been raised with the Australian Parliament JSEM who has requested a review by the Australian Electoral commission.

    More information:

  2. Additional information can be found on the Australian Parliament web site. Submisison 51.

    and Here


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