Sunday, January 27, 2008

Howard comeback a failure

Seems as though he's still trying to dictate everything the Liberal party does.

FORMER prime minister John Howard attempted a comeback to the Liberal Party within weeks of his defeat in November's election, senior Liberals have revealed.

Several party sources have confirmed Mr Howard put himself forward as the next Liberal Party president to replace outgoing Chris McDiven.

"Howard contacted people to make it known he wanted the presidency," one source said.

But Mr Howard's candidacy was immediately scoffed at by senior Liberals. They were amazed he seemed to want a role so soon after the Liberals' worst defeat, senior sources said.

"They told him: don't be ridiculous," a source said.

"Howard wanted the presidency so that he could control the review process the party was conducting into why the Howard government lost and what needed to be done," one source said.

"He wanted to control the way the history of the Howard Government was written."


Full Story

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Morgan Poll: 61.5% - 38.5%

Roy Morgan has released the newest Federal poll, it's first for 2008, showing Labor with a honeymoon 2PP of 61.5%. This is up 1% on the last poll taken in December. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8% (down 2.5% from the previous Morgan Poll), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), and Others 5.5% (up 2%).

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Your new (and not so new) members of the House of Representatives

Division State Member Party
Adelaide SA ELLIS, Kate Australian Labor Party
Aston VIC PEARCE, Chris Liberal
Ballarat VIC KING, Catherine Australian Labor Party
Banks NSW MELHAM, Daryl Australian Labor Party
Barker SA SECKER, Patrick Liberal
Barton NSW McCLELLAND, Robert Australian Labor Party
Bass TAS CAMPBELL, Jodie Australian Labor Party
Batman VIC FERGUSON, Martin Australian Labor Party
Bendigo VIC GIBBONS, Steve Australian Labor Party
Bennelong NSW McKEW, Maxine Australian Labor Party
Berowra NSW RUDDOCK, Philip Liberal
Blair QLD NEUMANN, Shayne Kenneth Australian Labor Party
Blaxland NSW CLARE, Jason Australian Labor Party
Bonner QLD REA, Kerry Australian Labor Party
Boothby SA SOUTHCOTT, Andrew Liberal
Bowman QLD LAMING, Andrew Liberal
Braddon TAS SIDEBOTTOM, Sid Australian Labor Party
Bradfield NSW NELSON, Brendan Liberal
Brand WA GRAY, Gary Australian Labor Party
Brisbane QLD BEVIS, Arch Australian Labor Party
Bruce VIC GRIFFIN, Alan Australian Labor Party
Calare NSW COBB, John The Nationals
Calwell VIC VAMVAKINOU, Maria Australian Labor Party
Canberra ACT ELLIS, Annette Australian Labor Party
Canning WA RANDALL, Don Liberal
Capricornia QLD LIVERMORE, Kirsten Australian Labor Party
Casey VIC SMITH, Tony Liberal
Charlton NSW COMBET, Greg Australian Labor Party
Chifley NSW PRICE, Roger Australian Labor Party
Chisholm VIC BURKE, Anna Australian Labor Party
Cook NSW MORRISON, Scott Liberal
Corangamite VIC CHEESEMAN, Darren Australian Labor Party
Corio VIC MARLES, Richard Australian Labor Party
Cowan WA SIMPKINS, Luke Liberal
Cowper NSW HARTSUYKER, Luke The Nationals
Cunningham NSW BIRD, Sharon Australian Labor Party
Curtin WA BISHOP, Julie Liberal
Dawson QLD BIDGOOD, James Australian Labor Party
Deakin VIC SYMON, Mike Australian Labor Party
Denison TAS KERR, Duncan Australian Labor Party
Dickson QLD DUTTON, Peter Liberal
Dobell NSW THOMSON, Craig Australian Labor Party
Dunkley VIC BILLSON, Bruce Liberal
Eden-Monaro NSW KELLY, Mike Australian Labor Party
Fadden QLD ROBERT, Stuart Liberal
Fairfax QLD SOMLYAY, Alex Liberal
Farrer NSW LEY, Sussan Liberal
Fisher QLD SLIPPER, Peter Liberal
Flinders VIC HUNT, Greg Liberal
Flynn QLD TREVOR, Chris Australian Labor Party
Forde QLD RAGUSE, Brett Blair Australian Labor Party
Forrest WA MARINO, Nola Liberal
Fowler NSW IRWIN, Julia Australian Labor Party
Franklin TAS COLLINS, Julie Australian Labor Party
Fraser ACT McMULLAN, Bob Australian Labor Party
Fremantle WA PARKE, Melissa Australian Labor Party
Gellibrand VIC ROXON, Nicola Australian Labor Party
Gilmore NSW GASH, Joanna Liberal
Gippsland VIC McGAURAN, Peter The Nationals
Goldstein VIC ROBB, Andrew Liberal
Gorton VIC O'CONNOR, Brendan Australian Labor Party
Grayndler NSW ALBANESE, Anthony Australian Labor Party
Greenway NSW MARKUS, Louise Liberal
Grey SA RAMSEY, Rowan Liberal
Griffith QLD RUDD, Kevin Australian Labor Party
Groom QLD MACFARLANE, Ian Liberal
Hasluck WA JACKSON, Sharryn Australian Labor Party
Herbert QLD LINDSAY, Peter Liberal
Higgins VIC COSTELLO, Peter Liberal
Hindmarsh SA GEORGANAS, Steve Australian Labor Party
Hinkler QLD NEVILLE, Paul The Nationals
Holt VIC BYRNE, Anthony Australian Labor Party
Hotham VIC CREAN, Simon Australian Labor Party
Hughes NSW VALE, Danna Liberal
Hume NSW SCHULTZ, Alby Liberal
Hunter NSW FITZGIBBON, Joel Australian Labor Party
Indi VIC MIRABELLA, Sophie Liberal
Isaacs VIC DREYFUS, Mark Australian Labor Party
Jagajaga VIC MACKLIN, Jenny Australian Labor Party
Kalgoorlie WA HAASE, Barry Liberal
Kennedy QLD KATTER, Bob Independent
Kingsford Smith NSW GARRETT, Peter Australian Labor Party
Kingston SA RISHWORTH, Amanda Australian Labor Party
Kooyong VIC GEORGIOU, Petro Liberal
La Trobe VIC WOOD, Jason Liberal
Lalor VIC GILLARD, Julia Australian Labor Party
Leichhardt QLD TURNOUR, Jim Australian Labor Party
Lilley QLD SWAN, Wayne Australian Labor Party
Lindsay NSW BRADBURY, David Australian Labor Party
Lingiari NT SNOWDON, Warren Australian Labor Party
Longman QLD SULLIVAN, Jon Australian Labor Party
Lowe NSW MURPHY, John Australian Labor Party
Lyne NSW VAILE, Mark The Nationals
Lyons TAS ADAMS, Dick Australian Labor Party
Macarthur NSW FARMER, Pat Liberal
Mackellar NSW BISHOP, Bronwyn Liberal
Macquarie NSW DEBUS, Bob Australian Labor Party
Makin SA ZAPPIA, Tony Australian Labor Party
Mallee VIC FORREST, John The Nationals
Maranoa QLD SCOTT, Bruce The Nationals
Maribyrnong VIC SHORTEN, Bill Australian Labor Party
Mayo SA DOWNER, Alexander Liberal
McEwen VIC BAILEY, Fran Liberal
McMillan VIC BROADBENT, Russell Liberal
McPherson QLD MAY, Margaret Liberal
Melbourne VIC TANNER, Lindsay Australian Labor Party
Melbourne Ports VIC DANBY, Michael Australian Labor Party
Menzies VIC ANDREWS, Kevin Liberal
Mitchell NSW HAWKE, Alex Liberal
Moncrieff QLD CIOBO, Steven Liberal
Moore WA WASHER, Mal Liberal
Moreton QLD PERRETT, Graham Australian Labor Party
Murray VIC STONE, Sharman Liberal
New England NSW WINDSOR, Tony Independent
Newcastle NSW GRIERSON, Sharon Australian Labor Party
North Sydney NSW HOCKEY, Joe Liberal
O'Connor WA TUCKEY, Wilson Liberal
Oxley QLD RIPOLL, Bernie Australian Labor Party
Page NSW SAFFIN, Janelle Australian Labor Party
Parkes NSW COULTON, Mark The Nationals
Parramatta NSW OWENS, Julie Australian Labor Party
Paterson NSW BALDWIN, Bob Liberal
Pearce WA MOYLAN, Judi Liberal
Perth WA SMITH, Stephen Australian Labor Party
Petrie QLD D'ATH, Yvette Australian Labor Party
Port Adelaide SA BUTLER, Mark Australian Labor Party
Prospect NSW BOWEN, Chris Australian Labor Party
Rankin QLD EMERSON, Craig Australian Labor Party
Reid NSW FERGUSON, Laurie Australian Labor Party
Richmond NSW ELLIOT, Justine Australian Labor Party
Riverina NSW HULL, Kay The Nationals
Robertson NSW NEAL, Belinda Australian Labor Party
Ryan QLD JOHNSON, Michael Liberal
Scullin VIC JENKINS, Harry Australian Labor Party
Shortland NSW HALL, Jill Australian Labor Party
Solomon NT HALE, Damian Australian Labor Party
Stirling WA KEENAN, Michael Liberal
Sturt SA PYNE, Christopher Liberal
Swan WA IRONS, Steve Liberal
Sydney NSW PLIBERSEK, Tanya Australian Labor Party
Tangney WA JENSEN, Dennis Liberal
Throsby NSW GEORGE, Jennie Australian Labor Party
Wakefield SA CHAMPION, Nick Australian Labor Party
Wannon VIC HAWKER, David Liberal
Warringah NSW ABBOTT, Tony Liberal
Watson NSW BURKE, Tony Australian Labor Party
Wentworth NSW TURNBULL, Malcolm Liberal
Werriwa NSW HAYES, Chris Australian Labor Party
Wide Bay QLD TRUSS, Warren The Nationals
Wills VIC THOMSON, Kelvin Australian Labor Party

Friday, January 4, 2008

Random Seat Report: Lindsay

Ahh Lindsay, home of pamphletgate. Lindsay was always going to swing enough for Labor to win the seat and I think the whole pamphlet fiasco didn't do much to change many people's votes in the seat. It may have changed other people's votes in other seats but not in Lindsay, if we have a look at the swing in seats around Lindsay and factor in the loss of Jackie Kelly's personal vote the swing looks about right.

Seat Swing to Labor
Lindsay 9.7%
Greenway 6.9%
Macquarie 6.6%
Chifley 8.7%
Prospect 7.1%
Fowler 4.9%


Taking a look at the 2PP and swing by booth doesn't throw up any suprises. Big swings in the traditional/state Labor voting (lower socio-economic) suburbs and smaller swings in the smaller rural/farming suburbs. In fact, the only booths (except 1)the Libs won were those smaller rural/farming booths - Castlereagh, Leonay, Llandilo, Mulgoa and Orchard Hills. They also won Regentville, which isn't that small at around 2400 voters. The biggest 2pp vote for the Libs was 68.9% at Orachard Hills.

The biggest swing to Labor was 13.83% at Kingswood South. There were also double digit swings in Braddock (Cranebrook), Cambridge Gardens, Cranebrook, Glenmore Park, Glenmore Park Central, Penrith, Penrith North, Penrith South, Regentville and Werrington. The rest of the booths besides the ones I mentioned earlier swung by between 7.2% and 9.99%. The biggest 2PP vote for Labor was 69.59% at St Marys North.

Looking at the results now, the 2PP vote for each looks similar to how I imagine it would look at the state election.
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