Friday, January 4, 2008

Random Seat Report: Lindsay

Ahh Lindsay, home of pamphletgate. Lindsay was always going to swing enough for Labor to win the seat and I think the whole pamphlet fiasco didn't do much to change many people's votes in the seat. It may have changed other people's votes in other seats but not in Lindsay, if we have a look at the swing in seats around Lindsay and factor in the loss of Jackie Kelly's personal vote the swing looks about right.

Seat Swing to Labor
Lindsay 9.7%
Greenway 6.9%
Macquarie 6.6%
Chifley 8.7%
Prospect 7.1%
Fowler 4.9%

Taking a look at the 2PP and swing by booth doesn't throw up any suprises. Big swings in the traditional/state Labor voting (lower socio-economic) suburbs and smaller swings in the smaller rural/farming suburbs. In fact, the only booths (except 1)the Libs won were those smaller rural/farming booths - Castlereagh, Leonay, Llandilo, Mulgoa and Orchard Hills. They also won Regentville, which isn't that small at around 2400 voters. The biggest 2pp vote for the Libs was 68.9% at Orachard Hills.

The biggest swing to Labor was 13.83% at Kingswood South. There were also double digit swings in Braddock (Cranebrook), Cambridge Gardens, Cranebrook, Glenmore Park, Glenmore Park Central, Penrith, Penrith North, Penrith South, Regentville and Werrington. The rest of the booths besides the ones I mentioned earlier swung by between 7.2% and 9.99%. The biggest 2PP vote for Labor was 69.59% at St Marys North.

Looking at the results now, the 2PP vote for each looks similar to how I imagine it would look at the state election.

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