No Clean Feed

The federal government has green-lighted its highly controversial mandatory ISP filtering plan.

FULL STORY

COMMENT: Say goodbye to the youth vote Kevin.

New NSW newspoll. Labor still heading for a beating.

The latest Newspoll published in The Australian on voting in NSW is further bad news for NSw Labor and Kristina Keneally. Primary support for Labor is at just 26%, with the Coalition on 44% (+2) and the Geens up a whopping 5% to 17%. The 2PP is running 59-41 in favour of the Coalition. No graphs yet.

Average Green Vote in the Blacktown/Mt Druitt area.

Some of you may remember me making some graphs for the Blacktown Greens after the last council. I've now made graphs for the last state/federal/council and average vote using GEGraph with the results displayed in Google Earth. The elecorate outline backgrounds comes from Ben Raue at The Tallyroom Blog. (The Federal Greenway/Chifley backgrounds are the new proposed ones, not the previous) Not all booths have been used for all 3 elections. The Greens only ran in 1 ward the in the last council election and with a higher vote at the council election, those booths have a higher average than others.Let me know what you think.

State 2007

Federal 2007

Council 2008

Average

Pollytics: Data, fiction and politics.

Possum has written a brilliant post over at his Pollytics blog. I won't spoil it for you but here is a quote.

That linear regression is statistically significant to so many decimal places that I had to go into the guts of my stats software to find a value that wasn’t zero. The p-value of the linear regression is 0.000001 (rounded up), meaning that there is less than a 1 in one million chance that the long term increase in demand we are witnessing could be due to chance alone. It’s a slow grinding increase, but a consistent one regardless of the local, short term variation involved.
If you were a government facing that kind of data, there would be absolutely no hesitation at all, on either side of politics, to plan for a future which contains that increasing demand for this particular service. There might be political differences over how to do it, maybe even on what ought to be done – but there would be universal acceptance of the empirical reality of increasing demand, albeit one that contains significant variation at any given time. Similarly, if you were a business or an industry facing that sort of data on the demand for your own product, there would be universal action to deal with it. In fact – you would struggle to find anyone that would suggest such data doesn’t have an observable and statistically significant linear trend over time strong enough to warrant acting on.
Yet – the data above isn’t actually polling data about demand for a government service...

Turnbull calls Abbott a flip-flopper and says he's full of "Bulls*it"

Malcolm Turn has just posted on his blog about the Coalition's objection to the ETS. In it he says Abbott has changed his position plenty of times and that lowering emissions without cost is "bullshit" and that Abbott knows this. Looks like the disunity in the party is just starting, not coimng to an end as they would like us to believe.

While a shadow minister, Tony Abbott, was never afraid of speaking bluntly in a manner that was at odds with Coalition policy.

Greens booth worker assaulted by DLP booth worker. The story I was told.

Earlier today I got a call from a friend of mine who is a member of the Blacktown Greens. He and another member of the Blacktown Greens (for the purpose of this story we will call him Jim but that is not his name) were handing out HTVs at Warrawee in the electorate of Bradfield. Jim noticed that the DLP hot-to-vote cards had no "Authorised by" statement on it and went inside to complain/enquire about it. When he returned the DLP worker called 'Jim" a "fat pig" and told him to go lose weight. Other booth workers told the DLP worker to calm down and he started abusing them. After getting really angry and really loud the cops were called on the DLP worker.

According to TheTallyRoom there are reports 'Jim' was also pushed over a fence. Either my source at the Blacktown Greens didn't mention this to me or I didn't hear it. I will confirm in the morning whether or not the pushing over a fence actually happened

p.s I got the call around 3:30pm and tweeted about it here here and here

Booths where Liberal or The Greens scored big wins or big swings - Higgins Edition

Below is a list of booths where either the Libs or Greens scored big primary or 2PP wins. The number in brackets indicates total formal votes in that booth. (For the purpose of this "big win" will mean over 55% primary for Liberal and 60% 2PP while for The Greens the criteria is 37% primary and 45% 2PP)


Higgins
Alamein (862) - GNS 40.72% primary & 47.68% 2PP . LIB +8.3% primary and +11.4% 2PP 
Armadale (1648) - LIB 55.89% primary & 60.07% 2PP
Ashburton (1892) - GNS 38.16% primary & 45.93% 2PP
Burwood (1,017)  -  GNS 37.36% primary.
Burwood West (1,233) - GNS 40.79% primary.& 49.47% 2PP
Campberwell Middle (991) - LIB 60.95% primary & 65.19% 2PP
Carnegie Upper (980) - GNS 43.88% primary &  55.71% 2PP
Chadstone (1,663) - LIB +6.9% 2PP
Darling (1,355) - LIB 61.70% 2PP
Glen Iris (2,188) - LIB 60.28% 2PP
Glen Iris South (1,559) - GNS 40.56% primary & 47.59% 2PP
Hawkesburn Central (997) - LIB 60.29% 2PP & +13.3% 2PP. DLP 13.84%
Comment: Libs only increased their primary vote by 3.6%. The reason for their huge 2PP increase is Labor polled 43% at the 2007 election. This election only 19% of those Labor voters went to Greens with 13.84% going to the Democratic Labor Party.
Hughesdale North (724) - GNS 46.41% 2PP
Kooyong Park (615) - LIB 64.88% primary and 67.15% 2PP
Malvern (2,775) - LIB 56.47% primary and 60.79% 2PP
Malvern Lower (1,312) - LIB 67.76% primary and 70.96% 2PP
Murrumbeena (1,553) - GNS 38.51% primary & 49.07% 2PP
Orrong (1,314) - GNS 41.14% primary & 49.09% 2PP
Prahan (1,100) - GNS 48.27% primary & 58.18% 2PP
Prahan East (2,483) - GNS 41.04% primary & 52.24% 2PP.
South Yarra (533) - GNS 47.28% primary & 55.35% 2PP
South Yarra Central (935)  GNS - 39.04% primary & 46.52% 2PP
Toorak (2,399) - LIB 72.41% primary & 75.91% 2PP
Toorak Central (1,704) - LIB 63.15% primary & 67.90% 2PP
Toorak West (428) - GNS 46.27% 2PP. LIB -24.45% primary & -21.21% 2PP
Windsor (920) - GNS 45.76% primary & 57.83% 2PP

Live Higgins by-election results.

10pm Sunday. Figures now include pre-poll and postal votes.


9pm - Just waiting for one more booth (Malvern) in Higgins so I can post the final ordinary vote results. They're taking forever.


8:45pm - Final results from tonight's counting. Postals and pre-polls etc to be counted over the next few days. Seems like a low-turnout.



8pm Victory for Kelly O'Dwyer and the Liberal party.


(Independents, Australian Sex Party, One Nation and  DLP swings are the same as their primary vote)
Votes counted - 71.70% (% of enrolment)
Booths Counted -  36 of 36

Informal - 3.87%
More after the jump.

Live Bradfield by-election results.

10:50pm Sunday - Figures including postals and pre-polls have been updated.


10pm - Final ordinary votes result updated.


Too many CDP candidates and they're getting hardly any votes. I've removed all but the James Whitehall from the table for ease and quicker updates.

(CDP swing is for Whitehall only.) (Swings for Independents, EFNE, One Nation and Australian Sex Party are same as their primary vote)

Votes counted- 74.24% (% of Enrolment)
Booths Counted - 37 of 37

Informal - 6.78%

Bradfield and Higgins by-elections. Live updates from the ground..

This post will be updated with live results starting at 6pm. For the moment I will update with stories from people at ground zero. All stories are coming from the people themselves and are either straight to me or found on Twitter. All twitter stories and photos will be linked to the original poster.

5:40pm - Just 20 minutes of voting left. Things have slowed right down on Twitter.

3:50pm - Just received news that a DLP booth worker was abusing other booth workers at Warrawee and had to be removed by police. #bradfield

3:30pm - 2 &1/2 hours left to vote. Should start to see a rush of voters again soon.

2:15pm - News coming through that Australian sex Party candidate Fiona Patten was pulled over by the police after complaints at the words "SEX PARTY" on the back of her campaign van.

2:05pm (From thebigriboldi) Brendan nelson at west pymble #bradfield

2:00pm -  (From thebigriboldi) Lovely family of four greens at west pymble public said 'good luck' on the way out #bradfield

1:35pm - (From godwingrech) @latikambourke Latika dear, can you please ask the S*x Party whether they'll be taking their defeat lying down? #Higgins Love GG)

1:30pm - (From simonsinger) Talking to friends and family in Higgins, many votes for Australian Sex Party. Numbers should be interesting. Top 3? #Higgins

1:05pm - Looks like things are starting to slow down. Will probably pick up again towards the close.

12:50pm (From latikambourke) One male, (estimate mid thirties) 'voted the way I always do - Liberal.' #Higgins

12:35pm (From latikambourke) First time Greens voter (45 year old male in suit and tie) 'Liberals obviously aren't taking the environmental issue seriously.' #Higgins

12:25pm (From latikambourke) One mum, 'I wouldn't vote for Tony Abbott if I was paid.' #Higgins

12:15pm - (from latikambourke) Kelly everywhere!

12:10pm - (Photo from leerhiannon) Greens Bradfield Candidate Susie Gemmell with Kevin Rudd.

12:05pm - (Photo From benraue via Sam Bauers)
Comment: The following is being handed out by the Sex Party in Bradfield. Pretty clever if you ask me.

11:55am - (From corduroy) Sex party booth worker gave Tony Abbott a condom in case he "gets lucky". Nice work. #bradfield

11:50am - Photos from Chrisquirk

 

11:35am - (from Rrrrohan) Juvenile sex party volunteer in #higgins keeps putting VOTE 1 SEX stickers on Kelly's corflute face. Everyone hates him.

11:30am - Just talked to a friend handing out Green's How-to-vote's at Warrawee in Bradfield. He said all the booth workers have been friendly to each other and nobody has said anything rude to him about The Greens. The general feel is that The Greens will do well but Liberal will win.

10:40am - (From benraue) I'm pretty sure the Sex Party people are being paid. The woman couldn't say the party name without giggling #bradfield