Sunday, October 12, 2008

A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Lakemba.

Former Member
Once poular former Premier, Morris Iemma.

Area
Lakemba is situated in Sydney's inner south-west. Lakemba lies mainly between Punchbowl Road and the M5 Motorway, though it also extends south of the M5 into Hurstville Council to include the Riverwood housing estate and parts of Peakhurst. Other suburbs in the electorate include Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park, Roselands, Wiley Park and Punchbowl.

History
Lakemba has been held by the Labor party since it was created in 1927.

Votes since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was 78.6% in a 2 horse race in 1981. In more recent times they received 73.9% of the primary vote at the 2007 election. Their lowest primary vote result was 43.9 in 1988.

Liberals highest primary vote was 38.2 in 1984. Their lowest was 13.2 in 2007.

The 2PP result in 2007 was 84%-16%.

Candidates
Labor - Popularly ellected Canterbury Mayor, Robert Furolo.
Liberals - Michael Hawatt. Long serving Canterbury councillor. Has contested Lakemba 3 times previously, once as an independent.
Greens - Kristian Bolwell. Works for Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon.
CDP - Allan Lotfizadeh.
CDP - Zarif Abdullah.
IND - Robert Aitken - Communist League candidate who has previously contested NSW state election, running in Cabramatta in 1995, Fairlfield in 1999 and Lakemba in 2003.

Prediction
Labor Retain. Should see a huge swing to the Liberal Party because of such a huge primary and 2PP vote for Labor at the last election. Furolo is well known in the area so his personal vote will be enough to stop the Liberals from taking the seat.
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