Sunday, October 5, 2008

US Election: Intrade Prediction Markets

Intrade attempts to predict the outcome of the US Election based on Intrade state-by-state market prices.

Leaning allots each states electoral votes fully to the market leader.
Average allots each states in a weighting determined by the market.
For example: If in Wisconcin, which has 10 electoral votes, the Intrade market values are Democrat 60 - Republican 40, leaning allots all electoral to Democrat while average allots 6 electoral votes to Democrat and 4 to Republican.

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