Thursday, October 9, 2008

A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Cabramatta

Former Member
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.

At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.

Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.

Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
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