Sunday, June 27, 2010

Federal Election Preview: North Sydney

Preview by Seamus Lee - @teenman

History
North Sydney has been for a long time a Liberal held seat. The only times in which it hasn't been held by a Liberal politician is when Ted Mack held the seat from as an Independent 1990 to 1996.
 2007 Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Candidate Party Vote % Swing %
Kundan Misra Citizens Electoral Council 0.29
NEW

Arie Baalbergen CDP 0.73 NEW
Marcus Aussie-Stone IND 0.62 NEW
Joe Hockey LP 51.81 -4.42
Ted Nixon Greens 9.21 -3.12
Barry Thompson Climate Change Coalition 1.31 NEW
John Caferatta FF 0.41 +0.39
Mike Bailey ALP 32.62 +8.35

2PP
55.38%- 44.62% Swing - 4.66%

Localities
Artarmon, Cremorne, Cammeray, Castle Cove, CastleCrag, Chatswood, Chatswood West, Crows Nest, Gladesville, Gore Hill, Greenwich, Henley, Hunters Hill, Huntleys Point, Kirribilli, Lane Cove, Lane Cove North, Lane Cove West, Lavender Bay, Linley Point, Longueville, McMahons Point, Milsons Point, Monash Park, Naremburn, , North Sydney, North Willoughbym Northbridge, Northwood, Riverview, St Leonards,  Waverton, willoughby, Willoughby east, Wollstonecraft, Woolwich
With the redistributions the seat of North Sydney has moved slightly west and bit north
Candidates
Joe Hockey - Joe has lived in sydney all his life and has been a long serving member of parliament. Has been the minister for Financial Services and Regulation, Small Business and Tourism, Human Services, employment and workplace relations during his  14 years in parliament. He has been president of the young liberals in NSW.
Andrew Robjones - Has been in the area for a number of years and works in North Ryde and is the Deputy Mayor of North Sydney council. He is an active member of the greens.
Key Issues: Reducing the noise from the freeway. Andrew is in support for the RTA to construct noice protection walls to reduce the noise around the Warringah Freeway
                   The greeens also support reducing developer donations. This is becuase there are developments being planned around the areas in North    
                   Sydney and the developers seem to be getting their way in relation to negotiations with councils
There will be more to come as with all the other candidates
Leta Webb - She lives in Milsons Pont and is a lecturer in envionmental law. She has sworked as director of responsible planning and environment at both Ku-ring-gai and leichhardt councils. She also worked as the executive director for the shore regional orgainsation of councils.
Key Issues: Development of renewable energy and energy incentives
                  Intergrate sustainable development principals into urban and economic planning.
                  Health and hospital reform
                  Protection of the harbour foreshores
                  More affordable housing
No other candidates announced as of yet.
Prediction
Joe Hockey should return the seat. However if the Greens are able to run a successful it may mean that Joe Hockey could be pushed to hold the seat on preferences. With more of Chatswood being included in the seat the greens vote should increase. Labor will struggle to hold onto the gains made in 2007 becuase they don't have the star factor of Mike Bailey and Kevin Rudd 
Paul's Prediction: Easy Lib hold. Increase in primary vote for The Greens and Liberals
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