Sunday, June 27, 2010

Federal Election Preview: Werriwa

Preview by @coldsnacks
History 
An original Federation electorate, Werriwa has mainly been held by Labor, and is considered a safe Labor seat. Former seat of former Labor leader Mark Latham and former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.
2007 Results
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
CandidatePartyVote %Swing %
Rachel ElliotLiberals30.17-7.44
Chris HayesALP58.83+8.92
Neerav BhaatGreens3.79+0.07
Joe BryantIND2.53NEW
Andrew MillsFamily First2.41+2.00
Hany GayedCDP2.28+1.90
2PP
65.24%-34.76% - Swing 8.3%
Localities
Austral, West Hoxton, Prestons, Lurnea and parts of Liverpool in the north, to Claymore and Minto Heights in the south, bounded by the Georges River to the east and generally by the Sydney Water Supply Channel, Raby Road, Rileys Creek, Anthony Road, Barry Avenue and Allenby Road to the west. The main suburbs include Austral, Bardia, Bow Bowing, Casula, Claymore, Denham Court, Edmondson Park, Eschol Park, Glenfield, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park, Ingleburn, Leppington, Lurnea, Macquarie Fields, Minto, Minto Heights, Prestons, Raby, St Andrews, Varroville, and parts of Liverpool, Leumeah and West Hoxton.

Candidates
Laurie Ferguson (current MP for  Reid and Parliamentary Secretary) - Sitting MP Chris Hayes has been moved to Fowler, despite protests from the community, to accommodate Ferguson who is a favourite of Julia Gillard.
No other candidates have been announced but it is expected that the Liberal Party will again go with Rachel Elliot.

Prediction
Even with the electoral redistribution (Werriwa now contains Austral, from Fowler, losing parts of Camden to Macarthur) and the initial community anger over a candidate being parachuted in at the expense of the sitting member, it is unlikely that the Liberals would be able to capture a large enough swing to win the seat.
Labor to comfortably hold.  Slight swing to the Liberals (between 2 and 5%)

Paul's Prediction - Easy Labor hold.
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