Preferences have finally been counted. Below is the final result of elected candidates.
Overall
Labor - 7
Liberal - 6
Greens - 4
Brindibella
1st - Brendan Smyth (Liberal)
2nd - Steve Doszpot (Liberal)
3rd - Amanda Bresnan (Greens)
4th - John Hargreaves (Labor)
5th - Joy Burch (Labor)
Ginninderra
1st - Jon Stanhope (Labor)
2nd - Meredith Hunter (Greens)
3rd - Alastair Coe (Liberal)
4th - Mary Porter (Labor)
5th - Vicki Dunne (Liberal)
Molonglo
1st - Zed Seselja (Liberal)
2nd - Katy Gallagher (Labor)
3rd - Shane Rattenbury (Greens)
4th - Andrew Barr (Labor)
5th - Jeremy Hanson (Liberal)
6th - Simon Corbell (Labor)
7th - Caroline Le Couter (Greens)
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Saturday, October 25, 2008
Counting contiues in the ACT election.
The distribution of preferences is still going on, although we are nearing the finish line. At the moment it looks like it will be 7 Labor, 6 Liberal and 4 Greens.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
U.S Presidential Election - If the Bradley effect comes in to play.
I decided to use CNN's election calculator and pick the winner of each state using latest polls taking 5 percentage points away from Obama's vote to see what would happen if the Bradlet effect comes in to play. The general thought is that it's about 7% but experts are divided as to whether the Bradley effect is still in play so I've gone for 5%. This is not my prediction or even scitentifically accurate, it's a rough guide to what may happen if the Bradley effect comes in to play.
Using date from pollster.com and factoring 5% for the Bradley effect we end up with 276 electoral votes to Obama (270 needed to win) and 262 for McCain.
Using date from pollster.com and factoring 5% for the Bradley effect we end up with 276 electoral votes to Obama (270 needed to win) and 262 for McCain.
NSW by-elections: Average swing
Here are the average swings for Labor, Liberal, Greens and CDP in the 3 Sydney by-elections. It's interesting to see that average Liberal gain is more than the average Labor loss.
| Party | Average Swing % |
| Liberal | 18.83 |
| Labor | -16.23 |
| CDP | 1.5 |
| Greens | 4.7 |
NSW Elections: Final results and some charts
The final results for the NSe by-elections are in the post below. Labor has held on in Lakemba and Cabramatta despite huge swings. The Liberals have won Ryde, while Peter Besseling has won Port Macquarie thanks to help from the Liberal party.
Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.
Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing
Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)
Ryde Primary Vote and Swing
Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.
Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing
Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)
Ryde Primary Vote and Swing
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
NSW by-election and ACT election update.
Update 12:00pm Wednesday: Preference results from 3 booths and the pre-polls from the ACT election came in last night. Still close to call. Looks like it will be either 7 Labor, 7 Liberal 3 Greens or 7 Labor, 6 Liberal, 4 Greens.
UPDATE: No preference results for ACT as of 8:15pm
The by-election results below have been updated with pre-poll votes added. Results with postal votes will be updated once they are counted. The full results and distribution of preferences are expected to be available 6:30pm Wednesday.
The ACT results have been updated with postal. The distribution of preferences with final results of elected candidates are expected to be available 7:30pm tonight. I will post another post with the elected candidates once they are available.
UPDATE: No preference results for ACT as of 8:15pm
The by-election results below have been updated with pre-poll votes added. Results with postal votes will be updated once they are counted. The full results and distribution of preferences are expected to be available 6:30pm Wednesday.
The ACT results have been updated with postal. The distribution of preferences with final results of elected candidates are expected to be available 7:30pm tonight. I will post another post with the elected candidates once they are available.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Live NSW by-election results
UPDATE: Final results.
Last Update: Thursday, 23rd 12:30pm
Cabramatta - Turnout: 86.1%
Informal = 3%
Cabramatta 2PP
Labor 57.2% - Liberals 42.8%
2PP swing to Liberals = 21.8%
Lakemaba - Turnout: 80.4%
Informal = 3.9%
Lakemba 2PP
Labor 70.5% - Liberals 29.5%
2PP swing to Liberals = 13.5%
Ryde - Turnout: 83.6%
Informal = 2%
Ryde 2PP
Liberal 63% -Labor 37%
2PP Swing to Liberals = 23%
Port Macquarie - Turnout: 88.5%
Informal = 1.8%
Port Macquarie 2PP
Peter Besseling 54.5% - Nationals 45.5%
2PP swing to Nationals = 23.7%
Last Update: Thursday, 23rd 12:30pm
Cabramatta - Turnout: 86.1%
| Party/Name | Vote % | Swing |
|---|---|---|
Greens | 9 | +2.1% |
Joseph Adams | 1.5 | +1.5% |
Liberal | 36.5 | +20.2% |
Labor | 51 | -18.1% |
Alasdair McDonald | 0.4 | +0.4% |
Chrisitan Democrats | 1.6 | +1.6% |
Informal = 3%
Cabramatta 2PP
Labor 57.2% - Liberals 42.8%
2PP swing to Liberals = 21.8%
Lakemaba - Turnout: 80.4%
| Party/Name | Vote % | Swing |
|---|---|---|
CDP | 3.3 | +1.4% |
Greens | 12.3 | +8.4% |
Robert Aitken | 1.4 | +1.4% |
CDP (2) | 1.2 | -0.8% |
Labor | 58.2 | -15.6% |
Liberal | 23.7 | +10.6% |
Informal = 3.9%
Lakemba 2PP
Labor 70.5% - Liberals 29.5%
2PP swing to Liberals = 13.5%
Ryde - Turnout: 83.6%
| Party/Name | Vote % | Swing |
|---|---|---|
Victor Taffa | 3.0 | +3.0% |
Greens | 11.2 | +3.3% |
Liberals | 54.3 | +25.7% |
Labor | 29.8 | -15% |
Democrats | 1.7 | +0.3% |
Informal = 2%
Ryde 2PP
Liberal 63% -Labor 37%
2PP Swing to Liberals = 23%
Port Macquarie - Turnout: 88.5%
Party/Name | Vote % | Swing |
|---|---|---|
James Langley | 4.9 | +4.9% |
Chrisitan Democrats | 1.2 | +1.2% |
Lisa Intemann | 7.5 | +7.5% |
Greens | 4.7 | +1.9% |
Nationals | 33.7 | +14.2% |
Tony Galati | 1 | +1% |
Grant Rogers | 0.5 | +0.5% |
Bob Sharpham | 1.9 | +1.9% |
Peter Bessling | 35.9 | -31.2% |
Jamie Harrison | 8.3 | +8.3% |
Cameron Price | 0.3 | +0.3% |
Informal = 1.8%
Port Macquarie 2PP
Peter Besseling 54.5% - Nationals 45.5%
2PP swing to Nationals = 23.7%
Live ACT Election results.
Last updated Tuesday 21st, 1:59pm
Total State Wide Vote - 88.2% counted.
Brindibella - 90.7% counted
Ginninderra - 87.8% counted.
Molonglo - 86.7% counted.
Total State Wide Vote - 88.2% counted.
| Party | Vote % | Swing | Won | Likely | In Doubt | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | 37.4 | -9.4% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Liberal | 31.5 | -3.3% | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Greens | 15.6 | +6.3% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Other | 15.5 | +6.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Brindibella - 90.7% counted
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Quotas | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | 22,685 | 36.5 | 2.18 | -9% |
Liberals | 21,875 | 35.3 | 2.12 | -5.2% |
Greens | 8,440 | 13.6 | 0.82 | +6.4% |
Community Alliance | 4,771 | 7.6 | 0.46 | +7.6 |
Motorist Party | 4,332 | 7.1 | 0.42 | +5.7 |
Ginninderra - 87.8% counted.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Quotas | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | 23,239 | 40.2 | 2.41 | -9.9% |
Liberals | 15,926 | 27.6 | 1.66 | -4.8% |
Greens | 8,032 | 13.9 | 0.83 | +5.7% |
Ungrouped | 5,111 | 8.8 | 0.53 | +6.9 |
Motorist Party | 3,559 | 6.3 | 0.36 | +6.3 |
Community Alliance | 1,841 | 3.1 | 0.19 | +3.1 |
Molonglo - 86.7% counted.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Quotas | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | 31,423 | 36.2 | 2.90 | -9.8% |
Liberal | 27,397 | 31.5 | 2.52 | -0.8% |
Greens | 15,821 | 18.1 | 1.46 | +6.5% |
Pangallo Inds | 4,225 | 4.9 | 0.39 | +4.9% |
Motorist Party | 2,430 | 2.9 | 0.21 | +2.9% |
Mulcahy Canberra | 2,323 | 2.8 | 0.21 | +2.8% |
Ungrouped | 1,624 | 1.9 | 0.15 | -1.2% |
Community Alliance | 996 | 1.3 | 0.08 | +1.1% |
Liberal Democrats | 781 | 0.9 | 0.07 | -0.9% |
Friday, October 17, 2008
Port Macquarie Polling Places
| UNDIVIDED | ||
| Premises | Address | Unique Polling Place Name |
|---|---|---|
| Bonny Hills Community Hall | Graham Street, Bonny Hills NSW 2445 | Bonny Hills |
| Camden Haven High School | Valley View Road, KEW NSW 2439 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Kew |
| Coopernook Public Hall | Macquarie Street, Coopernook NSW 2426 | Coopernook |
| Dunbogan Jubilee Hall | The Boulevarde, DUNBOGAN NSW 2443 | Dunbogan |
| Emerald Downs Community Centre | Emerald Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Emerald Downs |
| Hannam Vale Public School | 1159 Hannam Vale Road, Hannam Vale NSW 2443 | Hannam Vale |
| Harrington Public School | High Street, HARRINGTON NSW 2427 | Harrington |
| Hastings Public School | Wainora Parkway, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Port Macquarie South |
| Herons Creek Public School | 5499 Pacific Highway, Herons Creek NSW 2443 | Herons Creek |
| Johns River Public School | Station Street, Johns River NSW 2443 | John Rivers |
| Kendall War Memorial Hall | Graham Street, Kendall NSW 2439 | Kendall |
| King Creek Rural Fire Station | Narran Close, King Creek NSW 2446 | King Creek |
| Lake Cathie Community Hall | Mullaway Road, Lake Cathie NSW 2445 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Lake Cathie |
| Lansdowne Public School | Macquarie Street, Lansdowne NSW 2430 | Lansdowne |
| Laurieton School Of Arts Hall | Bold Street, Laurieton NSW 2443 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Laurieton |
| Lord Howe Island Central School | Lagoon Road, Lord Howe Island NSW 2898 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Lord Howe Island |
| Lorne Recreation Centre | 941 Stewarts River Road, Lorne NSW 2439 | Lorne |
| Moorland Public School | 15 Church Street, Moorland NSW 2443 | Moorland |
| North Haven Public School | Ocean Drive, NORTH HAVEN NSW 2443 | North Haven |
| North Shore Rural Fire Station | Shoreline Drive, Riverside NSW 2444 | Port Macquarie North Shore |
| Port Macquaire Base Hospital | Wrights Road, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Port Macquarie Base |
| Port Macquarie High School | Owen Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Port Macquarie East |
| Port Macquarie Lions Club | Hastings River Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Hibbard |
| Port Macquarie Public School | Grant Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Port Macquarie Central |
| Port Macquarie Shop 2 | 155 Horton Street, PORT MACQUARIE NSW 2444 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Port Macquarie |
| St Columba Anglican School | 3 Iona Avenue, PORT MACQUARIE NSW 2444 | Major Innes |
| St Josephs High School Regional Campus | Warlters Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Settlement Shores |
| St Peter The Fisherman Church Hall | 421 Ocean Drive, West Haven NSW 2443 | West Haven |
| Tacking Point Public School | Bangalay Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Tacking Point |
| Westport High School | Findlay Avenue, Port Macquarie NSW 2444 | Port Macquarie West |
Cabramatta Polling Places
| UNDIVIDED | ||
| Premises | Address | Unique Polling Place Name |
|---|---|---|
| Bonnyrigg High School | Elizabeth Drive, Bonnyrigg NSW 2177 | Bonnyrigg High |
| Bonnyrigg Public School | Tarlington Parade, Bonnyrigg NSW 2177 | Bonnyrigg |
| Cabramatta Community Hall | McBurney Road, Cabramatta NSW 2166 | Cabravale |
| Cabramatta High School | Aladore Avenue, Cabramatta NSW 2166 | Cabramatta High |
| Cabramatta Public School | Levuka Street, Cabramatta NSW 2166 | Cabramatta East |
| Cabramatta West Public School | Broad Street, Cabramatta NSW 2166 | Cabramatta West |
| Cabramatta/Fairfield PCYC | Railway Parade, Cabramatta NSW 2166 | Cabramatta |
| Canley Heights Public School | Cambridge Street, Canley Heights NSW 2166 | Canley Heights |
| Canley Vale High School | Prospect Road, Canley Vale NSW 2166 | Canley Vale High |
| Canley Vale Public School | Canley Vale Road, Canley Vale NSW 2166 | Canley Vale |
| Harrington Street Public School | Harrington Street, Cabramatta NSW 2166 | Harrington Street |
| King Park Public School | Humphries Road, Wakeley NSW 2176 | Wakeley |
| Lansvale East Public School | Riverside Road, Lansvale NSW 2166 | Lansvale East |
| Lansvale Public School | Chancery Street, Canley Vale NSW 2166 | Lansvale |
| Mount Pritchard East Public School | Townview Road, Mount Pritchard NSW 2170 | Mount Pritchard East |
| Mount Pritchard Public School | 104-122 Meadows Road, Mount Pritchard NSW 2170 | Mount Pritchard |
| St Johns Park Public School | Sandringham Street, St Johns Park NSW 2176 | St Johns Park |
Lakemba Polling Places
| UNDIVIDED | ||
| Premises | Address | Unique Polling Place Name |
|---|---|---|
| Belmore North Public School | Burwood Road, Belmore NSW 2194 | Belmore North |
| Belmore Senior Citizens Centre | 38-40 Redman Parade, Belmore NSW 2192 | Belmore Central |
| Belmore South Public School | Nelson Avenue, Belmore NSW 2194 | Belmore South |
| Beverly Hills North Public School | Shorter Avenue, Beverly Hills NSW 2209 | Beverly Hills North |
| Canterbury Hospital | Thorncraft Parade, Campsie NSW 2194 | Canterbury |
| Clemton Park Public School | 175 Bexley Road, Earlwood NSW 2206 | Clemton Park |
| Hampden Park Public School | Hampden Road, Lakemba NSW 2194 | Lakemba North |
| Hannans Road Public School | Hannans Road, Riverwood NSW 2210 | Hannans Road |
| Kingsgrove North High School | Richland Street, Kingsgrove NSW 2208 | Kingsgrove North |
| Lakemba Public School | Alice Street, Lakemba NSW 2195 | Wiley Park East |
| McCallums Hill Public School | McCallum Street, Roselands NSW 2196 | McCallums Hill |
| NSWEC Warehouse | Unit 11, Riverwood Business Park, RIVERWOOD NSW 2210 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Riverwood |
| Peakhurst Public School | Bonds Road, Peakhurst NSW 2210 | Peakhurst East |
| Punchbowl Public School | Rossmore Avenue, Punchbowl NSW 2196 | Punchbowl |
| Riverwood Public School | Union Street, Riverwood NSW 2210 | Riverwood North |
| Samoan Presbyterian Church Hall | 1003 Canterbury Road, Lakemba NSW 2195 | Lakemba Central |
| St Andrews Church Hall Riverwood | 9 Littleton Street, Riverwood NSW 2210 | Riverwood South |
| St Therese School | Garrong Road, Lakemba NSW 2195 | Lakemba |
| Wiley Park Public School | Denman Avenue, Wiley Park NSW 2195 | Wiley Park West |
Ryde Polling Places
| UNDIVIDED | ||
| Premises | Address | Unique Polling Place Name |
|---|---|---|
| Australian Air League Hall | Santa Rosa Park, RYDE NSW 2112 | Santa Rosa |
| Brush Farm Corrective Services Academy | 66 Terry Road, Eastwood NSW 2122 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Eastwood West |
| Denistone East Public School | Brabyn Street, Eastwood NSW 2122 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Denistone East |
| Eastwood Baptist Church Hall | 3 First Avenue, Eastwood NSW 2122 | Denistone |
| Eastwood Heights Public School | Lincoln Street, Eastwood NSW 2122 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Eastwood Heights |
| Eastwood Public School | Rowe Street, Eastwood NSW 2122 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Eastwood |
| Kent Road Public School | Kent Road, Marsfield NSW 2122 | Kent Road |
| Marsden High School | Winbourne Street, West Ryde NSW 2114 | Denistone West |
| Meadowbank College Of Tafe | See Street, Meadowbank NSW 2144 | Meadowbank |
| Meadowbank Public School | Thistle Street, Ryde NSW 2122 | Ryde Heights |
| Morling College | 120 Herring Road, Macquarie Park NSW 2113 | Lyon Park |
| North Ryde Public School | Coxs Road, North Ryde NSW 2113 | Ryde North |
| Ryde Baptist Church Hall | Dobson Crescent, Ryde NSW 2122 | Ryde Central |
| Ryde College Of Tafe Banksia Building | Parkes Street, West Ryde NSW 2114 | Parkes Street |
| Ryde Hospital | Denistone Road, Eastwood NSW 2122 | Ryde Hospital |
| Ryde Masonic Hall | 142 Blaxland Road, Ryde NSW 2122 | Ryde |
| Ryde Public School | Tucker Street, Ryde NSW 2122 | Top Ryde |
| St Anthonys Parish Hall Marsfield | 54 Agincourt Road, Marsfield NSW 2122 | Marsfield |
| The Living Way Church Hall | 85 North Road, Ryde NSW 2122 | Water Tanks |
| Truscott Street Public School | Truscott Street, North Ryde NSW 2113 (Fully Wheelchair Accessible) | Truscott |
| West Ryde Public School | 6 Endeavour Street, West Ryde NSW 2114 | West Ryde |
Around the grounds - ACT Election.
Let's take a look around the grounds at what people are saying about the ACT election tomorrow.
Poll Bludger has a piece about how many seats each party is likely to win and what may happen if the Greens vote is as high as polls suggest.
Canberra Times has an article showing incumbent Jon Stanhope has slightly increased his small lead over Zed Seselja as preferred Chief Minister.
The ABC Elections site has an article about The Greens saying they don't yet know who they would back in a minority government if they win enough seats.
Poll Bludger has a piece about how many seats each party is likely to win and what may happen if the Greens vote is as high as polls suggest.
Canberra Times has an article showing incumbent Jon Stanhope has slightly increased his small lead over Zed Seselja as preferred Chief Minister.
The ABC Elections site has an article about The Greens saying they don't yet know who they would back in a minority government if they win enough seats.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
ACT Election: Polling places.
(Thanks to the ACT Electoral Commission)
Polling places for the 2008 ACT Legislative Assembly election
Below is an alphabetical list of the polling places for the 2008 ACT election. Polling places will be open between 8am and 6pm on 18 October 2008.
Ainslie Baker Gardens Pre-School - Baker Gardens
- Ainslie North
- Ainslie North Primary School - Majura Ave Ainslie
- Amaroo
- Amaroo Primary School - Katherine Ave Amaroo
- Aranda
- Aranda Primary School - Banambila St Aranda
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
K
L
M
N
O
P
R
S
T
W
Y
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Federal Newspoll: 55-45
The latest newspoll on Federal voting intentions has Labor leading the 2PP vote 55%-45% according to The Australian. While the figure is unchanged from the last poll both the PM and Opposition Leader have received higher apporval ratings than last time. Rudd is up 6 point to 56% while his dissatisfaction is down 5 points to 32%. Turnbull's satisfaction rating, in his first Newspoll has sky-rocketed 15 points to 50% compared to Dr Nelson's last result of 35%. Turnbull's dissatsifaction rating is 25%, down 17 points on Dr Nelson's last result of 42%.
In a follow up article The Australia revealed the primary vote results are Labor 41%, Coaliton 38% and the Greens on record 13%. The 13% for the Greens is the equal 2nd highest result for a third in newspoll history. The highest result for a 3rd party was 17% for the Democrats in March 1990.
Kevin Rudd leads the preferred PM rating 54%-26%
Snapshot
Primary Votes: Labor 41%, Coalition 38%, Greens 13%, Others/Undecided 8%
2PP: Labor 55%-45%
Satisfaction: Rudd 56%, Turnbull 50%
Dissatisfaction: Rudd 32%, turnbull 25%
Preferred PM: Rudd 54%, Turnbull 26%
In a follow up article The Australia revealed the primary vote results are Labor 41%, Coaliton 38% and the Greens on record 13%. The 13% for the Greens is the equal 2nd highest result for a third in newspoll history. The highest result for a 3rd party was 17% for the Democrats in March 1990.
Kevin Rudd leads the preferred PM rating 54%-26%
Snapshot
Primary Votes: Labor 41%, Coalition 38%, Greens 13%, Others/Undecided 8%
2PP: Labor 55%-45%
Satisfaction: Rudd 56%, Turnbull 50%
Dissatisfaction: Rudd 32%, turnbull 25%
Preferred PM: Rudd 54%, Turnbull 26%
ACT State Election: Pre-poll locations
Note: Electronic voting is available at all pre-poll locations.
Belconnen
View Larger Map
City
(69 Northbound Avenue Civic)
Gungahlin
View Larger Map
Tuggeranong
(Salvation Army Hall)
View Larger Map
Woden
(Smith Family - Cnr Easty and Launceston Streets)
Belconnen
View Larger Map
City
(69 Northbound Avenue Civic)
Gungahlin
View Larger Map
Tuggeranong
(Salvation Army Hall)
View Larger Map
Woden
(Smith Family - Cnr Easty and Launceston Streets)
NSW by elections - Pre-poll locations.
Ryde
View Larger Map
Lakemba
View Larger Map
Cabramatta
View Larger Map
Port Macquarie
Laurieton
View Larger Map
Harrington
View Larger Map
Port Macquarie
View Larger Map
View Larger Map
View Larger Map
Lakemba
View Larger Map
Cabramatta
View Larger Map
Port Macquarie
Laurieton
View Larger Map
Harrington
View Larger Map
Port Macquarie
View Larger Map
View Larger Map
Monday, October 13, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Port Macquarie
Retiring Member
Extremely popular Independent Rob Oakeshott
Area
Stretching from Coopernook to near Telegraph Point, the electorate is dominated by the urban area of Port Macquarie, the electorate also including the built up areas of Lake Cathie and Laurieton to the south. Also included in the district is distant Lord Howe Island.
History
Created in 1988. Has always been a Nationals seat until Oakeshott left the party and won as an independent.
Both Labor and the National's best primary vote was in 1988 in a 2 horse race. Labor received 30.6% while the Nationals received 69.4%. Both also had their worse result the same year, 2003 when Oakeshott won as independent. Labor 8.4%, Nationals 14.6%, Oakeshott 69.8%.
The 2 candidate prefered result in 2007 was Oakeshott 78.2% - Nationals 21.8%. The 2 party prefered result was Nationals 62.9% - Labor 37.1%
Candidates
Note: No Labor candidate
Nationals: Leslie Williams - contested this seat for the Nationals at the 2007 election.
Greens: Susie Russell - this is the fifth time Russell has contested Port Macquarie, having also contested the local Federal seat of Lyne on a number of occassions, including the Lyne by-election in September. She has worked as an adviser to Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
A whole heap of Independetns, the best chance is former Labor party candidate James Langley who left the party over concerns of the electricity privitisation.
Prediction
Nationals gain. This is the most likely outcome, but with a strong independent vote in the area it may come down to if and how people preference. Having said that, my feeling is the nationals may get just enough of the primary vote to not have to worry about preference.
Extremely popular Independent Rob Oakeshott
Area
Stretching from Coopernook to near Telegraph Point, the electorate is dominated by the urban area of Port Macquarie, the electorate also including the built up areas of Lake Cathie and Laurieton to the south. Also included in the district is distant Lord Howe Island.
History
Created in 1988. Has always been a Nationals seat until Oakeshott left the party and won as an independent.
Both Labor and the National's best primary vote was in 1988 in a 2 horse race. Labor received 30.6% while the Nationals received 69.4%. Both also had their worse result the same year, 2003 when Oakeshott won as independent. Labor 8.4%, Nationals 14.6%, Oakeshott 69.8%.
The 2 candidate prefered result in 2007 was Oakeshott 78.2% - Nationals 21.8%. The 2 party prefered result was Nationals 62.9% - Labor 37.1%
Candidates
Note: No Labor candidate
Nationals: Leslie Williams - contested this seat for the Nationals at the 2007 election.
Greens: Susie Russell - this is the fifth time Russell has contested Port Macquarie, having also contested the local Federal seat of Lyne on a number of occassions, including the Lyne by-election in September. She has worked as an adviser to Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
A whole heap of Independetns, the best chance is former Labor party candidate James Langley who left the party over concerns of the electricity privitisation.
Prediction
Nationals gain. This is the most likely outcome, but with a strong independent vote in the area it may come down to if and how people preference. Having said that, my feeling is the nationals may get just enough of the primary vote to not have to worry about preference.
How-To-Vote: Ryde
Victor Taffa (Independent)
Greens
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
EDIT2: Victor Taffa has emailed me his How-To-Vote. Only one I need now is the Democrats.
Greens
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
EDIT2: Victor Taffa has emailed me his How-To-Vote. Only one I need now is the Democrats.
How-To-Vote: Cabramatta
Greens
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
Liberals
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
How-To-Vote Cards: Lakemba
Greens
Liberal
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
Liberal
Labor
EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Ryde
Former Member
Former Deputy-Premier and Minister for Transport, John Watkins.
Area
Extends between Parramatta and Lane Cove Rivers. It includes most of the suburb of Ryde, along with Meadowbank, Denistone, West Ryde, North Ryde and most of Eastwood and Marsfield. Also includes Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park office and industrial estate.
History
Ryde was first created in 1894, abolished in 1904, re-created in 1913 and used continuously until abolished again 1968. Back on the electoral map in 1981, it disappeared again in 1991 and re-appeared in its current form at the 1999 election.
Been held by both parties thorught it's history. Has been held by Labor since 1999.
Votes Since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was in 1987 - 57%. Lowest was 44.1% in 1999.
Liberals highest was 45.9 in 1988. Lowest was 28.6% in 2007.
2007 2PP - 80.1%-39.9%
Candidates
Labor - Nicole Campbell - Has lived in Ryde since 1995. Contested Bennelong in the 2001 and 2004 Federal Elections and Epping at the 2007 Federal Election.
Liberal - Victor Dominello - Born and raised in Ryde. Victor is a lawyer and previously served on Ryde Council.
Greens - Lindsay Peters - Contested Epping at the 2007 state Election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Democrats - Peter Goldfinch - Contested Eyde at the 2007 election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Independent - Victor Taffa.
Prediction
Liberal gain. 10.1% swing needed and with the latest polls showing a whopping 24% swing this seat could easily go from a safe Labor seat to a safe Liberal seat just like that.
Former Deputy-Premier and Minister for Transport, John Watkins.
Area
Extends between Parramatta and Lane Cove Rivers. It includes most of the suburb of Ryde, along with Meadowbank, Denistone, West Ryde, North Ryde and most of Eastwood and Marsfield. Also includes Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park office and industrial estate.
History
Ryde was first created in 1894, abolished in 1904, re-created in 1913 and used continuously until abolished again 1968. Back on the electoral map in 1981, it disappeared again in 1991 and re-appeared in its current form at the 1999 election.
Been held by both parties thorught it's history. Has been held by Labor since 1999.
Votes Since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was in 1987 - 57%. Lowest was 44.1% in 1999.
Liberals highest was 45.9 in 1988. Lowest was 28.6% in 2007.
2007 2PP - 80.1%-39.9%
Candidates
Labor - Nicole Campbell - Has lived in Ryde since 1995. Contested Bennelong in the 2001 and 2004 Federal Elections and Epping at the 2007 Federal Election.
Liberal - Victor Dominello - Born and raised in Ryde. Victor is a lawyer and previously served on Ryde Council.
Greens - Lindsay Peters - Contested Epping at the 2007 state Election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Democrats - Peter Goldfinch - Contested Eyde at the 2007 election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Independent - Victor Taffa.
Prediction
Liberal gain. 10.1% swing needed and with the latest polls showing a whopping 24% swing this seat could easily go from a safe Labor seat to a safe Liberal seat just like that.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Lakemba.
Former Member
Once poular former Premier, Morris Iemma.
Area
Lakemba is situated in Sydney's inner south-west. Lakemba lies mainly between Punchbowl Road and the M5 Motorway, though it also extends south of the M5 into Hurstville Council to include the Riverwood housing estate and parts of Peakhurst. Other suburbs in the electorate include Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park, Roselands, Wiley Park and Punchbowl.
History
Lakemba has been held by the Labor party since it was created in 1927.
Votes since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was 78.6% in a 2 horse race in 1981. In more recent times they received 73.9% of the primary vote at the 2007 election. Their lowest primary vote result was 43.9 in 1988.
Liberals highest primary vote was 38.2 in 1984. Their lowest was 13.2 in 2007.
The 2PP result in 2007 was 84%-16%.
Candidates
Labor - Popularly ellected Canterbury Mayor, Robert Furolo.
Liberals - Michael Hawatt. Long serving Canterbury councillor. Has contested Lakemba 3 times previously, once as an independent.
Greens - Kristian Bolwell. Works for Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon.
CDP - Allan Lotfizadeh.
CDP - Zarif Abdullah.
IND - Robert Aitken - Communist League candidate who has previously contested NSW state election, running in Cabramatta in 1995, Fairlfield in 1999 and Lakemba in 2003.
Prediction
Labor Retain. Should see a huge swing to the Liberal Party because of such a huge primary and 2PP vote for Labor at the last election. Furolo is well known in the area so his personal vote will be enough to stop the Liberals from taking the seat.
Once poular former Premier, Morris Iemma.
Area
Lakemba is situated in Sydney's inner south-west. Lakemba lies mainly between Punchbowl Road and the M5 Motorway, though it also extends south of the M5 into Hurstville Council to include the Riverwood housing estate and parts of Peakhurst. Other suburbs in the electorate include Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park, Roselands, Wiley Park and Punchbowl.
History
Lakemba has been held by the Labor party since it was created in 1927.
Votes since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was 78.6% in a 2 horse race in 1981. In more recent times they received 73.9% of the primary vote at the 2007 election. Their lowest primary vote result was 43.9 in 1988.
Liberals highest primary vote was 38.2 in 1984. Their lowest was 13.2 in 2007.
The 2PP result in 2007 was 84%-16%.
Candidates
Labor - Popularly ellected Canterbury Mayor, Robert Furolo.
Liberals - Michael Hawatt. Long serving Canterbury councillor. Has contested Lakemba 3 times previously, once as an independent.
Greens - Kristian Bolwell. Works for Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon.
CDP - Allan Lotfizadeh.
CDP - Zarif Abdullah.
IND - Robert Aitken - Communist League candidate who has previously contested NSW state election, running in Cabramatta in 1995, Fairlfield in 1999 and Lakemba in 2003.
Prediction
Labor Retain. Should see a huge swing to the Liberal Party because of such a huge primary and 2PP vote for Labor at the last election. Furolo is well known in the area so his personal vote will be enough to stop the Liberals from taking the seat.
NSW Government facing annihilation - Tavener Poll
A poll by tavener for the Sydney Morning Herald has found Labor is facing more than a 20% swing in Ryde at the upcoming by-election. A uniform swing (remembering swings are never uniform) of just half that amount at the next election would see the Liberals come storming into power.
Phillip Mithcell Tavener said "The poll shows that an enormous 41 per cent of those who say they preferred Labor in March 2007 now prefer Liberal"
"I suspect such rejection of a political party is virtually unheard of in a democratic community.
"The shift in preference from Labor to Liberal is dramatic and suggests that Labor has absolutely no chance of remaining in power at the next election without some extraordinary event occurring."
The results suggest a 2PP results of 64%-36% to the Liberal Party (a 24% swing%)
In the preferred premier stakes Barry O'Farrell won 44% to 32% with 24% undecided.
The poll also showed people think Mr Rees is a better premier than his predecessor, Morris Iemma. Despite this, 65% said the leadership change had made no impact on the way they feel about the Government.
Not all the news is good for Mr O'Farrell. Almost half of those polled rate his performance as fair or poor.
Phillip Mithcell Tavener said "The poll shows that an enormous 41 per cent of those who say they preferred Labor in March 2007 now prefer Liberal"
"I suspect such rejection of a political party is virtually unheard of in a democratic community.
"The shift in preference from Labor to Liberal is dramatic and suggests that Labor has absolutely no chance of remaining in power at the next election without some extraordinary event occurring."
The results suggest a 2PP results of 64%-36% to the Liberal Party (a 24% swing%)
In the preferred premier stakes Barry O'Farrell won 44% to 32% with 24% undecided.
The poll also showed people think Mr Rees is a better premier than his predecessor, Morris Iemma. Despite this, 65% said the leadership change had made no impact on the way they feel about the Government.
Not all the news is good for Mr O'Farrell. Almost half of those polled rate his performance as fair or poor.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Political slogan merchandise available at CafePress
I've started a CafePress store to sell merchandise with political slogans I come up with. The firs range out is the "Think Change - Think Greens" I came up with for a friend, based on the Federal Government's "Think Climate - Think Change" ads. More slogans wil be added over time. If you have a request or an idea let me know.
EDIT: Kevin 24/7 range added.
EDIT: Kevin 24/7 range added.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Australians may have to wait for promised pension boost
OLDER Australians could be forced to wait beyond the next Budget for a long-overdue pension boost promised by Treasurer Wayne Swan.
After a horror day on the financial markets and predictions of a worldwide recession, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signalled that pensioners may to have to wait beyond the May Budget for a much-needed pay rise.
Five days ago Treasurer Wayne Swan vowed there would be extra money for older Australians in the 2009 Budget, but Mr Rudd and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner yesterday refused to commit to the same deadline.
Mr Rudd said the Government was committed to working hard to "get it right" but didn't put a date on delivery.
Earlier, Mr Tanner shocked pensioner groups when he would not speculate on a pension increase and said he was not in the business "of handing out guarantees".
Brisbane pensioner Daphne Ogden, who voted Labor for the first time in her life last year, said she had put her hope in Labor and felt like she had been betrayed.
Mrs Ogden, 73, who worked in a bank to put her children through private school, said she hoped Labor would help "the less fortunate".
Charmaine Crowe, of the Combined Pensioners and Superannuants, said the Government's position on a boost to pensions was an "unacceptable" change.
"Let's face it, pensioners have been calling for an increase in the pension for years," she said.
"The pension is not enough and something has got to give because the rising cost of living is so detrimental to pensioners at the moment that it is just ridiculous."
National Seniors chief executive Michael O'Neill said he was dismayed that there could be a shift.
"There will be anger across the community if our most vulnerable older Australians, who currently survive on $281 a week, are the first to be fobbed off in this financial crisis," Mr O'Neill said.
Mr Rudd said the Government was working on long-term plan to help pensioners.
"We're going to do it in a proper way, in a systematic way, once we've got all the numbers right," he said.
Mr Rudd admitted the worldwide downturn was going to cut government revenue, but insisted that pension reform was a priority.
However he did spell out that lifting the pension was expensive work and that a $30-a-week rise for millions of pensioners would cost $24 billion over four years.
"Every $10 increase across the board is $2 billion on the bottom line for one year," he said.
Mr Rudd said the Government was committed to responsible economic management and ensuring all Australians – including pensioners – enjoyed a stable banking system.
The Federal Opposition has been pushing an immediate $30-a-week rise for single aged pensioners.
Mr Swan, who is in Washington, last Sunday gave a clear commitment that pensioners would be looked after in the upcoming Budget.
Story here.
All I have to say to that is if they get rid of all the politicians perks, especially the post-office ones they will save themselves billions of dollars. Hypocrites of the highest order. The Greens (for years) and family first recently have been trying to get the pension increased but the Howard Government always ignored them, while the Labor opposition never made a big fuss about it.
I'm on a Carer's pension because my father is disabled and there's no other way to get care for him. If they keep fucking around with this I probably will go out and get my old job back or a new one, preferably something with statistics. I can't continue to live like this. This is supposed to be the lucky country but it's only lucky if you're a politician or know the right people to get ahead in life.
I think we need to go down the path of the UK who have a Minister for Carers and a Minister for Disbability. In the U.K there is a "Motability" scheme to help the Disabled and Carers get a car at an affordable rate, instead of buying one they are leased to you for a minimum of 3 years at an affordable rate. Comprehensive insurance, routine servicing and breakdown assistance are included. The cost of this is already added on the Pension as a "mobility allowance". Why we don't have this in Australia I don't know.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Cabramatta
Former Member
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.
At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.
Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.
Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.
At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.
Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.
Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Hubdub predictions.
US Election: Obama ahead 348 - 163 according to Hubdub
Hubdub, a world news prediction/forecast website, has Obama ahead 388 electoral votes to 163.
Here is what their website says about their 'widget'
Here's the widget.
Here is what their website says about their 'widget'
Hubdub's Election Map is different - it's not a poll. It's based on 51 underlying prediction markets that respond in real-time to breaking news, so the forecasts are continually updated.
Click on any state to see its interactive prediction market, or scroll down to make your predictions state-by-state.
The total Electoral Count is constantly updated based on the current standing in each state.
Here's the widget.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
ACT State Election: Canberra Times poll
Chief Minister Jon Stanhope's Labor Party is set to lose up to three ACT Legislative Assembly seats and Mr Stanhope will have to rely on the Greens' support to keep his job, according to an exclusive poll.
The Patterson-Canberra Times poll, conducted this week, points to the end of majority government on October 18 and finds the ACT Greens will be the big winner on election day, increasing their representation fourfold and getting to decide who takes power.
| Region | Labor | Liberal | Greens | Other |
Molonglo - 7 seats | 33% - 2.6 quotas | 29% - 2.3 quotas | 23% - 1.8 quotas | 16% - 1.3 quotas |
| Brindabella - 5 seats | 38% - 2.3 quoats | 37% - 2.2 quotas | 18% - 1.1 quotas | 7% - 0.4 quotas |
| Ginninderra - 5 seats | 34% - 2 quotas | 34% - 2 quotas | 16% - 1 quota | 16% - 1 quota |
US Election: Intrade Prediction Markets
Intrade attempts to predict the outcome of the US Election based on Intrade state-by-state market prices.
Leaning allots each states electoral votes fully to the market leader.
Average allots each states in a weighting determined by the market.
For example: If in Wisconcin, which has 10 electoral votes, the Intrade market values are Democrat 60 - Republican 40, leaning allots all electoral to Democrat while average allots 6 electoral votes to Democrat and 4 to Republican.
Leaning allots each states electoral votes fully to the market leader.
Average allots each states in a weighting determined by the market.
For example: If in Wisconcin, which has 10 electoral votes, the Intrade market values are Democrat 60 - Republican 40, leaning allots all electoral to Democrat while average allots 6 electoral votes to Democrat and 4 to Republican.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Leichardt Council - Leichardt-Lillyfield Ward Booth Results
Boooth | Greens | Liberal | Labor |
Kegworth | 54.94% | 21.51% | 23.53% |
Leichardt | 51.19% | 26.48% | 22.35% |
Leichardt Cent. | 52.10% | 24.73% | 23.15% |
Leichardt West. | 51.84% | 28.48% | 19.68% |
Lillyfield | 50.71% | 24.22% | 25.05% |
Postal | 39.30% | 35.80% | 24.89% |
Pre-Poll | 44.07% | 30.76% | 25.15% |
Overall | 50.72% | 25.98% | 23.30% |
Elected
1st: Rochelle Porteous - Greens
2nd: Vera-Ann Hanaford - Liberals
3rd: Alan Cinis - Greens
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