Saturday, October 25, 2008

ACT Election: Elected Candidates

Preferences have finally been counted. Below is the final result of elected candidates.

Overall
Labor - 7
Liberal - 6
Greens - 4


Brindibella
1st - Brendan Smyth (Liberal)
2nd - Steve Doszpot (Liberal)
3rd - Amanda Bresnan (Greens)
4th - John Hargreaves (Labor)
5th - Joy Burch (Labor)

Ginninderra
1st - Jon Stanhope (Labor)
2nd - Meredith Hunter (Greens)
3rd - Alastair Coe (Liberal)
4th - Mary Porter (Labor)
5th - Vicki Dunne (Liberal)

Molonglo
1st - Zed Seselja (Liberal)
2nd - Katy Gallagher (Labor)
3rd - Shane Rattenbury (Greens)
4th - Andrew Barr (Labor)
5th - Jeremy Hanson (Liberal)
6th - Simon Corbell (Labor)
7th - Caroline Le Couter (Greens)

Counting contiues in the ACT election.

The distribution of preferences is still going on, although we are nearing the finish line. At the moment it looks like it will be 7 Labor, 6 Liberal and 4 Greens.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

U.S Presidential Election - If the Bradley effect comes in to play.

I decided to use CNN's election calculator and pick the winner of each state using latest polls taking 5 percentage points away from Obama's vote to see what would happen if the Bradlet effect comes in to play. The general thought is that it's about 7% but experts are divided as to whether the Bradley effect is still in play so I've gone for 5%. This is not my prediction or even scitentifically accurate, it's a rough guide to what may happen if the Bradley effect comes in to play.

Using date from pollster.com and factoring 5% for the Bradley effect we end up with 276 electoral votes to Obama (270 needed to win) and 262 for McCain.

NSW by-elections: Average swing

Here are the average swings for Labor, Liberal, Greens and CDP in the 3 Sydney by-elections. It's interesting to see that average Liberal gain is more than the average Labor loss.
PartyAverage Swing %
Liberal18.83
Labor-16.23
CDP1.5
Greens4.7

NSW Elections: Final results and some charts

The final results for the NSe by-elections are in the post below. Labor has held on in Lakemba and Cabramatta despite huge swings. The Liberals have won Ryde, while Peter Besseling has won Port Macquarie thanks to help from the Liberal party.

Cabramatta Primary vote and swing.


Lakemba Primary Vote and Swing


Port Macquarie Primary Vote and Swing
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing compared to Rob Oakeshott's vote and is used for comparison)


Ryde Primary Vote and Swing

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

NSW by-election and ACT election update.

Update 12:00pm Wednesday: Preference results from 3 booths and the pre-polls from the ACT election came in last night. Still close to call. Looks like it will be either 7 Labor, 7 Liberal 3 Greens or 7 Labor, 6 Liberal, 4 Greens.

UPDATE: No preference results for ACT as of 8:15pm

The by-election results below have been updated with pre-poll votes added. Results with postal votes will be updated once they are counted. The full results and distribution of preferences are expected to be available 6:30pm Wednesday.

The ACT results have been updated with postal. The distribution of preferences with final results of elected candidates are expected to be available 7:30pm tonight. I will post another post with the elected candidates once they are available.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Live NSW by-election results

UPDATE: Final results.
Last Update: Thursday, 23rd 12:30pm

Cabramatta - Turnout: 86.1%
Party/NameVote %Swing

Greens

9

+2.1%

Joseph Adams

1.5

+1.5%

Liberal

36.5

+20.2%

Labor

51

-18.1%

Alasdair McDonald

0.4

+0.4%

Chrisitan Democrats

1.6

+1.6%


Informal = 3%
Cabramatta 2PP
Labor 57.2% - Liberals 42.8%
2PP swing to Liberals = 21.8%


Lakemaba - Turnout: 80.4%
Party/NameVote %Swing

CDP

3.3

+1.4%

Greens

12.3

+8.4%

Robert Aitken

1.4

+1.4%

CDP (2)

1.2

-0.8%

Labor

58.2

-15.6%

Liberal

23.7

+10.6%


Informal = 3.9%
Lakemba 2PP
Labor 70.5% - Liberals 29.5%

2PP swing to Liberals = 13.5%

Ryde - Turnout: 83.6%
Party/NameVote %Swing

Victor Taffa

3.0

+3.0%

Greens

11.2

+3.3%

Liberals

54.3

+25.7%

Labor

29.8

-15%

Democrats

1.7

+0.3%


Informal = 2%
Ryde 2PP
Liberal 63% -Labor 37%
2PP Swing to Liberals = 23%


Port Macquarie - Turnout: 88.5%
(Peter Besseling's swing is the swing away from Rob Oakeshott's vote, not his own)

Party/Name

Vote %Swing

James Langley

4.9

+4.9%

Chrisitan Democrats

1.2

+1.2%

Lisa Intemann

7.5

+7.5%

Greens

4.7

+1.9%

Nationals

33.7

+14.2%

Tony Galati

1

+1%

Grant Rogers

0.5

+0.5%

Bob Sharpham

1.9

+1.9%

Peter Bessling

35.9

-31.2%

Jamie Harrison

8.3

+8.3%

Cameron Price

0.3

+0.3%


Informal = 1.8%
Port Macquarie 2PP
Peter Besseling 54.5% - Nationals 45.5%

2PP swing to Nationals = 23.7%

Live ACT Election results.

Last updated Tuesday 21st, 1:59pm

Total State Wide Vote - 88.2% counted.

PartyVote %Swing WonLikely In DoubtPrediction

Labor

37.4

-9.4%

6

1

0

7

Liberal

31.5

-3.3%

5

0

2

7

Greens

15.6

+6.3%

1

2

0

3

Other

15.5

+6.5%

0

0

0

0



Brindibella - 90.7% counted
PartyVotesVote %QuotasSwing

Labor

22,685

36.5

2.18

-9%

Liberals

21,875

35.3

2.12

-5.2%

Greens

8,440

13.6

0.82

+6.4%

Community Alliance

4,771

7.6

0.46

+7.6

Motorist Party

4,332

7.1

0.42

+5.7



Ginninderra - 87.8% counted.
PartyVotesVote %QuotasSwing

Labor

23,239

40.2

2.41

-9.9%

Liberals

15,926

27.6

1.66

-4.8%

Greens

8,032

13.9

0.83

+5.7%

Ungrouped

5,111

8.8

0.53

+6.9

Motorist Party

3,559

6.3

0.36

+6.3

Community Alliance

1,841

3.1

0.19

+3.1



Molonglo - 86.7% counted.
PartyVotesVote %QuotasSwing

Labor

31,423

36.2

2.90

-9.8%

Liberal

27,397

31.5

2.52

-0.8%

Greens

15,821

18.1

1.46

+6.5%

Pangallo Inds

4,225

4.9

0.39

+4.9%

Motorist Party

2,430

2.9

0.21

+2.9%

Mulcahy Canberra

2,323

2.8

0.21

+2.8%

Ungrouped

1,624

1.9

0.15

-1.2%

Community Alliance

996

1.3

0.08

+1.1%

Liberal Democrats

781

0.9

0.07

-0.9%

Friday, October 17, 2008

Port Macquarie Polling Places

UNDIVIDED
PremisesAddressUnique Polling Place Name
Bonny Hills Community HallGraham Street, Bonny Hills NSW 2445

Bonny Hills
Camden Haven High SchoolValley View Road, KEW NSW 2439

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Kew
Coopernook Public HallMacquarie Street, Coopernook NSW 2426

Coopernook
Dunbogan Jubilee HallThe Boulevarde, DUNBOGAN NSW 2443

Dunbogan
Emerald Downs Community CentreEmerald Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Emerald Downs
Hannam Vale Public School1159 Hannam Vale Road, Hannam Vale NSW 2443

Hannam Vale
Harrington Public SchoolHigh Street, HARRINGTON NSW 2427

Harrington
Hastings Public SchoolWainora Parkway, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Port Macquarie South
Herons Creek Public School5499 Pacific Highway, Herons Creek NSW 2443

Herons Creek
Johns River Public SchoolStation Street, Johns River NSW 2443

John Rivers
Kendall War Memorial HallGraham Street, Kendall NSW 2439

Kendall
King Creek Rural Fire StationNarran Close, King Creek NSW 2446

King Creek
Lake Cathie Community HallMullaway Road, Lake Cathie NSW 2445

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Lake Cathie
Lansdowne Public SchoolMacquarie Street, Lansdowne NSW 2430

Lansdowne
Laurieton School Of Arts HallBold Street, Laurieton NSW 2443

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Laurieton
Lord Howe Island Central SchoolLagoon Road, Lord Howe Island NSW 2898

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Lord Howe Island
Lorne Recreation Centre941 Stewarts River Road, Lorne NSW 2439

Lorne
Moorland Public School15 Church Street, Moorland NSW 2443

Moorland
North Haven Public SchoolOcean Drive, NORTH HAVEN NSW 2443

North Haven
North Shore Rural Fire StationShoreline Drive, Riverside NSW 2444

Port Macquarie North Shore
Port Macquaire Base HospitalWrights Road, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Port Macquarie Base
Port Macquarie High SchoolOwen Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Port Macquarie East
Port Macquarie Lions ClubHastings River Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Hibbard
Port Macquarie Public SchoolGrant Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Port Macquarie Central
Port Macquarie Shop 2155 Horton Street, PORT MACQUARIE NSW 2444

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Port Macquarie
St Columba Anglican School3 Iona Avenue, PORT MACQUARIE NSW 2444

Major Innes
St Josephs High School Regional CampusWarlters Street, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Settlement Shores
St Peter The Fisherman Church Hall421 Ocean Drive, West Haven NSW 2443

West Haven
Tacking Point Public SchoolBangalay Drive, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Tacking Point
Westport High SchoolFindlay Avenue, Port Macquarie NSW 2444

Port Macquarie West

Cabramatta Polling Places

UNDIVIDED
PremisesAddressUnique Polling Place Name
Bonnyrigg High SchoolElizabeth Drive, Bonnyrigg NSW 2177

Bonnyrigg High
Bonnyrigg Public SchoolTarlington Parade, Bonnyrigg NSW 2177

Bonnyrigg
Cabramatta Community HallMcBurney Road, Cabramatta NSW 2166

Cabravale
Cabramatta High SchoolAladore Avenue, Cabramatta NSW 2166

Cabramatta High
Cabramatta Public SchoolLevuka Street, Cabramatta NSW 2166

Cabramatta East
Cabramatta West Public SchoolBroad Street, Cabramatta NSW 2166

Cabramatta West
Cabramatta/Fairfield PCYCRailway Parade, Cabramatta NSW 2166

Cabramatta
Canley Heights Public SchoolCambridge Street, Canley Heights NSW 2166

Canley Heights
Canley Vale High SchoolProspect Road, Canley Vale NSW 2166

Canley Vale High
Canley Vale Public SchoolCanley Vale Road, Canley Vale NSW 2166

Canley Vale
Harrington Street Public SchoolHarrington Street, Cabramatta NSW 2166

Harrington Street
King Park Public SchoolHumphries Road, Wakeley NSW 2176

Wakeley
Lansvale East Public SchoolRiverside Road, Lansvale NSW 2166

Lansvale East
Lansvale Public SchoolChancery Street, Canley Vale NSW 2166

Lansvale
Mount Pritchard East Public SchoolTownview Road, Mount Pritchard NSW 2170

Mount Pritchard East
Mount Pritchard Public School104-122 Meadows Road, Mount Pritchard NSW 2170

Mount Pritchard
St Johns Park Public SchoolSandringham Street, St Johns Park NSW 2176

St Johns Park

Lakemba Polling Places

UNDIVIDED
PremisesAddressUnique Polling Place Name
Belmore North Public SchoolBurwood Road, Belmore NSW 2194

Belmore North
Belmore Senior Citizens Centre38-40 Redman Parade, Belmore NSW 2192

Belmore Central
Belmore South Public SchoolNelson Avenue, Belmore NSW 2194

Belmore South
Beverly Hills North Public SchoolShorter Avenue, Beverly Hills NSW 2209

Beverly Hills North
Canterbury HospitalThorncraft Parade, Campsie NSW 2194

Canterbury
Clemton Park Public School175 Bexley Road, Earlwood NSW 2206

Clemton Park
Hampden Park Public SchoolHampden Road, Lakemba NSW 2194

Lakemba North
Hannans Road Public SchoolHannans Road, Riverwood NSW 2210

Hannans Road
Kingsgrove North High SchoolRichland Street, Kingsgrove NSW 2208

Kingsgrove North
Lakemba Public SchoolAlice Street, Lakemba NSW 2195

Wiley Park East
McCallums Hill Public SchoolMcCallum Street, Roselands NSW 2196

McCallums Hill
NSWEC WarehouseUnit 11, Riverwood Business Park, RIVERWOOD NSW 2210

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Riverwood
Peakhurst Public SchoolBonds Road, Peakhurst NSW 2210

Peakhurst East
Punchbowl Public SchoolRossmore Avenue, Punchbowl NSW 2196

Punchbowl
Riverwood Public SchoolUnion Street, Riverwood NSW 2210

Riverwood North
Samoan Presbyterian Church Hall1003 Canterbury Road, Lakemba NSW 2195

Lakemba Central
St Andrews Church Hall Riverwood9 Littleton Street, Riverwood NSW 2210

Riverwood South
St Therese SchoolGarrong Road, Lakemba NSW 2195

Lakemba
Wiley Park Public SchoolDenman Avenue, Wiley Park NSW 2195

Wiley Park West


Ryde Polling Places

UNDIVIDED
PremisesAddressUnique Polling Place Name
Australian Air League HallSanta Rosa Park, RYDE NSW 2112

Santa Rosa
Brush Farm Corrective Services Academy66 Terry Road, Eastwood NSW 2122

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Eastwood West
Denistone East Public SchoolBrabyn Street, Eastwood NSW 2122

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Denistone East
Eastwood Baptist Church Hall3 First Avenue, Eastwood NSW 2122

Denistone
Eastwood Heights Public SchoolLincoln Street, Eastwood NSW 2122

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Eastwood Heights
Eastwood Public SchoolRowe Street, Eastwood NSW 2122

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Eastwood
Kent Road Public SchoolKent Road, Marsfield NSW 2122

Kent Road
Marsden High SchoolWinbourne Street, West Ryde NSW 2114

Denistone West
Meadowbank College Of TafeSee Street, Meadowbank NSW 2144

Meadowbank
Meadowbank Public SchoolThistle Street, Ryde NSW 2122

Ryde Heights
Morling College120 Herring Road, Macquarie Park NSW 2113

Lyon Park
North Ryde Public SchoolCoxs Road, North Ryde NSW 2113

Ryde North
Ryde Baptist Church HallDobson Crescent, Ryde NSW 2122

Ryde Central
Ryde College Of Tafe Banksia BuildingParkes Street, West Ryde NSW 2114

Parkes Street
Ryde HospitalDenistone Road, Eastwood NSW 2122

Ryde Hospital
Ryde Masonic Hall142 Blaxland Road, Ryde NSW 2122

Ryde
Ryde Public SchoolTucker Street, Ryde NSW 2122

Top Ryde
St Anthonys Parish Hall Marsfield54 Agincourt Road, Marsfield NSW 2122

Marsfield
The Living Way Church Hall85 North Road, Ryde NSW 2122

Water Tanks
Truscott Street Public SchoolTruscott Street, North Ryde NSW 2113

(Fully Wheelchair Accessible)
Truscott
West Ryde Public School6 Endeavour Street, West Ryde NSW 2114

West Ryde


Around the grounds - ACT Election.

Let's take a look around the grounds at what people are saying about the ACT election tomorrow.

Poll Bludger has a piece about how many seats each party is likely to win and what may happen if the Greens vote is as high as polls suggest.

Canberra Times
has an article showing incumbent Jon Stanhope has slightly increased his small lead over Zed Seselja as preferred Chief Minister.

The ABC Elections site has an article about The Greens saying they don't yet know who they would back in a minority government if they win enough seats.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

ACT Election: Polling places.

(Thanks to the ACT Electoral Commission)

Polling places for the 2008 ACT Legislative Assembly election




Below is an alphabetical list of the polling places for the 2008 ACT election. Polling places will be open between 8am and 6pm on 18 October 2008.




A


Ainslie

Ainslie Baker Gardens Pre-School - Baker Gardens


Ainslie North

Ainslie North Primary School - Majura Ave Ainslie
Amaroo

Amaroo Primary School - Katherine Ave Amaroo

Aranda

Aranda Primary School - Banambila St Aranda


B


Barton

Telopea Park High School - New South Wales Cres, Barton

Belconnen

Belconnen Community Centre - Swanson Court Belconnen

Bonython

Bonython Primary School - Hurtle Ave Bonython

Braddon

Ainslie Primary School - Elder St Braddon

Bruce

Calvary Hospital - Hayden Dr, Bruce



C



Calvary Hospital

Calvary Hospital - Hayden Dr, Bruce

Calwell

Calwell High School - Casey Cres, Calwell

Campbell

Campbell Primary School - Chauvel St, Campbell

Canberra Hospital

Canberra Hospital - Yamba Dr, Garran

Chapman

Chapman Primary School - Perry Dr, Chapman

Charnwood

St Thomas Aquinas Primary School - Lhotsky St, Charnwood

City

Pilgrim House - 69 Northbourne Ave, Civic

Chisholm

Chisholm Primary School - Hambridge Cres, Chisholm

Conder

Charles Conder Primary School - Tom Roberts Ave, Conder

Curtin

Curtin Primary School - Theodore St, Curtin



D



Deakin

Canberra Girls Grammar Junior School - Grey St, Deakin

Dickson

Daramalan College - Cowper St, Dickson

Downer

Downer Community Centre - Frencham Pl, Downer

Duffy

Duffy Primary Schoo - Burrinjuck Cres, Duffyl



E



Evatt

Evatt Primary School - Heydon Cres, Evatt

Evatt South

Miles Franklin Primary School - Alderman St, Evatt



F



Fadden

Fadden Primary School - Hanlon Cres, Fadden

Farrer

Farrer Primary School - Lambrigg St, Farrer

Florey

St Francis Xavier College - Barnard Circ, Florey

Fraser

Fraser Primary School - Tillyard Dr, Fraser



G



Garran

Canberra Hospital - Yamba Dr, Garran

Gilmore

Gilmore Primary School - Heagney Cres, Gilmore

Giralang

Giralang Primary School - Atalumba Cl, Giralang

Gordon

Gordon Primary School - Knoke Ave, Gordon

Gowrie

Gowrie Primary School - Jeffries St, Gowrie

Griffith

St Edmund's College - Canberra Ave, Griffith

Gungahlin

Birralee Scout Hall - 5 The Valley Way, Gungahlin



H



Hall

Hall Pavilion - Gladston St, Hall

Higgins

Higgins Primary School - Fullagar Cres, Higgins

Holder

St Judes Primary School - Mulley St, Holder

Holt

Holt Primary School - Beaurepaire Cres, Holt

Hughes

Hughes Primary School - Kent St, Hughes



I



Isabella Plains

Isabella Plains Primary School - Ellerston Ave, Isabella Plains



K



Kaleen

Kaleen Primary School - Ashburton St, Kaleen

Kaleen South

Maribyrnong Primary School - Alberga St, Kaleen

Kambah North

Taylor Primary School - Marconi Cres, Kambah

Kambah South

Urambi Primary School - O'Halloran Crct, Kambah

Kambah West

St Thomas the Apostle Primary School - Boddington Cres, Kambah



L



Latham

Latham Primary School - O'Loghlen St, Latham

Lyneham

Lyneham Primary School - Hall St, Lyneham

Lyons

Lyons Primary School - Tarraleah Cres, Lyons



M



Macgregor

Macgregor Primary School, Hirschfeld Cres, Macgregor

Macquarie

Macquarie Primary School, Bennelong Cres, Macquarie

Mawson

Mawson Primary School, Ainsworth St, Mawson

Melba

Mr Rogers Community School - Alfred Hill Dr, Melba

Monash
Monash Primary School - Corlette Cres, Monash



N



Narrabundah

Narrabundah Primary School - Kootara Cres, Narrabundah

Ngunnawal

Ngunnawal Primary School - Unaipon Ave, Ngunnawal

Ngunnawal South

Ngunnawal Neighbourhood Centre - Yarrawonga St, Ngunnawal

Nicholls

Gold Creek Primary School - Kelleway Ave, Nicholls



O



Oaks Estate

Oaks Estate Community Hall, 2 William St, Oaks Estate

O'Connor

O'Connor Scout Hall - Hovea St, O'Connor



P



Page

St Matthew's School - Stutchbury St, Page

Palmerston

Palmerston Primary School - Kosciusko Ave, Palmerston

Pearce

Melrose High School - Marr St, Pearce



R



Red Hill

Red Hill Primary School - Astrolabe St, Red Hill

Reid

Reid Uniting Church - 54 Coranderrk St, Reid

Richardson

Richardson Primary School - May Gibbs Cl, Richardson



S



Scullin

Scullin Salvation Army Hall - Ross Smith Cres, Scullin

Stirling

Canberra College Weston Campus - 71 Fremantle Dr, Stirling



T



Tharwa

Tharwa Public Hall - North St, Tharwa

Theodore

Theodore Primary School - Lawrence Wackett Cres, Theodore

Tuggeranong

Tuggeranong Salvation Army Hall - Corner of Anketell St and Reed St, Tuggeranong

Turner

Turner Primary School - Condamine St, Turner



W



Wanniassa

Wanniassa High School - Wheeler Cres, Wanniassa

Wanniassa Hills

Wanniassa Hills Primary School - Langdon Ave, Wanniassa

Warramanga

Arawang Primary School - Nemarang Cres, Waramanga

Watson

Majura Primary School - Knox St, Watson

Weetangera

Weetangera Primary School - Southwell St, Weetangera

Weston

Weston Creek Community Centre - Parkinson St, Weston

Woden

Woden Smith Family - Corner of Easty St and Launceston St, Woden


Y



Yarralumla

Yarralumla Primary School - Loftus St, Yarralumla

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Federal Newspoll: 55-45

The latest newspoll on Federal voting intentions has Labor leading the 2PP vote 55%-45% according to The Australian. While the figure is unchanged from the last poll both the PM and Opposition Leader have received higher apporval ratings than last time. Rudd is up 6 point to 56% while his dissatisfaction is down 5 points to 32%. Turnbull's satisfaction rating, in his first Newspoll has sky-rocketed 15 points to 50% compared to Dr Nelson's last result of 35%. Turnbull's dissatsifaction rating is 25%, down 17 points on Dr Nelson's last result of 42%.

In a follow up article The Australia revealed the primary vote results are Labor 41%, Coaliton 38% and the Greens on record 13%. The 13% for the Greens is the equal 2nd highest result for a third in newspoll history. The highest result for a 3rd party was 17% for the Democrats in March 1990.

Kevin Rudd leads the preferred PM rating 54%-26%

Snapshot
Primary Votes: Labor 41%, Coalition 38%, Greens 13%, Others/Undecided 8%
2PP: Labor 55%-45%
Satisfaction: Rudd 56%, Turnbull 50%
Dissatisfaction: Rudd 32%, turnbull 25%
Preferred PM: Rudd 54%, Turnbull 26%

ACT State Election: Pre-poll locations

Note: Electronic voting is available at all pre-poll locations.

Belconnen

View Larger Map

City
(69 Northbound Avenue Civic)

Gungahlin

View Larger Map

Tuggeranong
(Salvation Army Hall)

View Larger Map

Woden
(Smith Family - Cnr Easty and Launceston Streets)

NSW by elections - Pre-poll locations.

Ryde

View Larger Map

Lakemba

View Larger Map

Cabramatta

View Larger Map

Port Macquarie
Laurieton

View Larger Map

Harrington

View Larger Map

Port Macquarie

View Larger Map


View Larger Map

Monday, October 13, 2008

A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Port Macquarie

Retiring Member
Extremely popular Independent Rob Oakeshott

Area
Stretching from Coopernook to near Telegraph Point, the electorate is dominated by the urban area of Port Macquarie, the electorate also including the built up areas of Lake Cathie and Laurieton to the south. Also included in the district is distant Lord Howe Island.

History
Created in 1988. Has always been a Nationals seat until Oakeshott left the party and won as an independent.

Both Labor and the National's best primary vote was in 1988 in a 2 horse race. Labor received 30.6% while the Nationals received 69.4%. Both also had their worse result the same year, 2003 when Oakeshott won as independent. Labor 8.4%, Nationals 14.6%, Oakeshott 69.8%.

The 2 candidate prefered result in 2007 was Oakeshott 78.2% - Nationals 21.8%. The 2 party prefered result was Nationals 62.9% - Labor 37.1%

Candidates
Note: No Labor candidate
Nationals: Leslie Williams - contested this seat for the Nationals at the 2007 election.
Greens: Susie Russell - this is the fifth time Russell has contested Port Macquarie, having also contested the local Federal seat of Lyne on a number of occassions, including the Lyne by-election in September. She has worked as an adviser to Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
A whole heap of Independetns, the best chance is former Labor party candidate James Langley who left the party over concerns of the electricity privitisation.

Prediction
Nationals gain. This is the most likely outcome, but with a strong independent vote in the area it may come down to if and how people preference. Having said that, my feeling is the nationals may get just enough of the primary vote to not have to worry about preference.

How-To-Vote: Ryde

Victor Taffa (Independent)

Greens

Liberals

Labor



EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)

EDIT2: Victor Taffa has emailed me his How-To-Vote. Only one I need now is the Democrats.

How-To-Vote: Cabramatta

Greens

Liberals

Labor


EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)

How-To-Vote Cards: Lakemba

Greens



Liberal

Labor


EDIT: Received the Greens HTVs. thank you to the Greens NSW for them. If you know of any others available online or have a copy and would be be able to scan please let me know by commenting her or emailain: australiavotes2007 @ hotmail . com or pauly_aus @ hotmail. com (remove the spaces)

A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Ryde

Former Member
Former Deputy-Premier and Minister for Transport, John Watkins.

Area
Extends between Parramatta and Lane Cove Rivers. It includes most of the suburb of Ryde, along with Meadowbank, Denistone, West Ryde, North Ryde and most of Eastwood and Marsfield. Also includes Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park office and industrial estate.

History
Ryde was first created in 1894, abolished in 1904, re-created in 1913 and used continuously until abolished again 1968. Back on the electoral map in 1981, it disappeared again in 1991 and re-appeared in its current form at the 1999 election.

Been held by both parties thorught it's history. Has been held by Labor since 1999.

Votes Since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was in 1987 - 57%. Lowest was 44.1% in 1999.
Liberals highest was 45.9 in 1988. Lowest was 28.6% in 2007.

2007 2PP - 80.1%-39.9%

Candidates
Labor - Nicole Campbell - Has lived in Ryde since 1995. Contested Bennelong in the 2001 and 2004 Federal Elections and Epping at the 2007 Federal Election.
Liberal - Victor Dominello - Born and raised in Ryde. Victor is a lawyer and previously served on Ryde Council.
Greens - Lindsay Peters - Contested Epping at the 2007 state Election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Democrats - Peter Goldfinch - Contested Eyde at the 2007 election and Bennelong at the 2007 Federal Election.
Independent - Victor Taffa.

Prediction
Liberal gain. 10.1% swing needed and with the latest polls showing a whopping 24% swing this seat could easily go from a safe Labor seat to a safe Liberal seat just like that.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Lakemba.

Former Member
Once poular former Premier, Morris Iemma.

Area
Lakemba is situated in Sydney's inner south-west. Lakemba lies mainly between Punchbowl Road and the M5 Motorway, though it also extends south of the M5 into Hurstville Council to include the Riverwood housing estate and parts of Peakhurst. Other suburbs in the electorate include Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park, Roselands, Wiley Park and Punchbowl.

History
Lakemba has been held by the Labor party since it was created in 1927.

Votes since 1981
Labor's highest primary vote was 78.6% in a 2 horse race in 1981. In more recent times they received 73.9% of the primary vote at the 2007 election. Their lowest primary vote result was 43.9 in 1988.

Liberals highest primary vote was 38.2 in 1984. Their lowest was 13.2 in 2007.

The 2PP result in 2007 was 84%-16%.

Candidates
Labor - Popularly ellected Canterbury Mayor, Robert Furolo.
Liberals - Michael Hawatt. Long serving Canterbury councillor. Has contested Lakemba 3 times previously, once as an independent.
Greens - Kristian Bolwell. Works for Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon.
CDP - Allan Lotfizadeh.
CDP - Zarif Abdullah.
IND - Robert Aitken - Communist League candidate who has previously contested NSW state election, running in Cabramatta in 1995, Fairlfield in 1999 and Lakemba in 2003.

Prediction
Labor Retain. Should see a huge swing to the Liberal Party because of such a huge primary and 2PP vote for Labor at the last election. Furolo is well known in the area so his personal vote will be enough to stop the Liberals from taking the seat.

NSW Government facing annihilation - Tavener Poll

A poll by tavener for the Sydney Morning Herald has found Labor is facing more than a 20% swing in Ryde at the upcoming by-election. A uniform swing (remembering swings are never uniform) of just half that amount at the next election would see the Liberals come storming into power.

Phillip Mithcell Tavener said "The poll shows that an enormous 41 per cent of those who say they preferred Labor in March 2007 now prefer Liberal"

"I suspect such rejection of a political party is virtually unheard of in a democratic community.

"The shift in preference from Labor to Liberal is dramatic and suggests that Labor has absolutely no chance of remaining in power at the next election without some extraordinary event occurring."

The results suggest a 2PP results of 64%-36% to the Liberal Party (a 24% swing%)

In the preferred premier stakes Barry O'Farrell won 44% to 32% with 24% undecided.

The poll also showed people think Mr Rees is a better premier than his predecessor, Morris Iemma. Despite this, 65% said the leadership change had made no impact on the way they feel about the Government.

Not all the news is good for Mr O'Farrell. Almost half of those polled rate his performance as fair or poor.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Political slogan merchandise available at CafePress

I've started a CafePress store to sell merchandise with political slogans I come up with. The firs range out is the "Think Change - Think Greens" I came up with for a friend, based on the Federal Government's "Think Climate - Think Change" ads. More slogans wil be added over time. If you have a request or an idea let me know.

Support This Site

EDIT: Kevin 24/7 range added.

The Greens primary vote in Ryde.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Australians may have to wait for promised pension boost

OLDER Australians could be forced to wait beyond the next Budget for a long-overdue pension boost promised by Treasurer Wayne Swan.

After a horror day on the financial markets and predictions of a worldwide recession, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signalled that pensioners may to have to wait beyond the May Budget for a much-needed pay rise.

Five days ago Treasurer Wayne Swan vowed there would be extra money for older Australians in the 2009 Budget, but Mr Rudd and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner yesterday refused to commit to the same deadline.

Mr Rudd said the Government was committed to working hard to "get it right" but didn't put a date on delivery.

Earlier, Mr Tanner shocked pensioner groups when he would not speculate on a pension increase and said he was not in the business "of handing out guarantees".

Brisbane pensioner Daphne Ogden, who voted Labor for the first time in her life last year, said she had put her hope in Labor and felt like she had been betrayed.

Mrs Ogden, 73, who worked in a bank to put her children through private school, said she hoped Labor would help "the less fortunate".

Charmaine Crowe, of the Combined Pensioners and Superannuants, said the Government's position on a boost to pensions was an "unacceptable" change.

"Let's face it, pensioners have been calling for an increase in the pension for years," she said.

"The pension is not enough and something has got to give because the rising cost of living is so detrimental to pensioners at the moment that it is just ridiculous."

National Seniors chief executive Michael O'Neill said he was dismayed that there could be a shift.

"There will be anger across the community if our most vulnerable older Australians, who currently survive on $281 a week, are the first to be fobbed off in this financial crisis," Mr O'Neill said.

Mr Rudd said the Government was working on long-term plan to help pensioners.

"We're going to do it in a proper way, in a systematic way, once we've got all the numbers right," he said.

Mr Rudd admitted the worldwide downturn was going to cut government revenue, but insisted that pension reform was a priority.

However he did spell out that lifting the pension was expensive work and that a $30-a-week rise for millions of pensioners would cost $24 billion over four years.

"Every $10 increase across the board is $2 billion on the bottom line for one year," he said.

Mr Rudd said the Government was committed to responsible economic management and ensuring all Australians – including pensioners – enjoyed a stable banking system.

The Federal Opposition has been pushing an immediate $30-a-week rise for single aged pensioners.

Mr Swan, who is in Washington, last Sunday gave a clear commitment that pensioners would be looked after in the upcoming Budget.


Story here.


All I have to say to that is if they get rid of all the politicians perks, especially the post-office ones they will save themselves billions of dollars. Hypocrites of the highest order. The Greens (for years) and family first recently have been trying to get the pension increased but the Howard Government always ignored them, while the Labor opposition never made a big fuss about it.

I'm on a Carer's pension because my father is disabled and there's no other way to get care for him. If they keep fucking around with this I probably will go out and get my old job back or a new one, preferably something with statistics. I can't continue to live like this. This is supposed to be the lucky country but it's only lucky if you're a politician or know the right people to get ahead in life.

I think we need to go down the path of the UK who have a Minister for Carers and a Minister for Disbability. In the U.K there is a "Motability" scheme to help the Disabled and Carers get a car at an affordable rate, instead of buying one they are leased to you for a minimum of 3 years at an affordable rate. Comprehensive insurance, routine servicing and breakdown assistance are included. The cost of this is already added on the Pension as a "mobility allowance". Why we don't have this in Australia I don't know.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

A closer look at the NSW by-elections: Cabramatta

Former Member
Former Health Minister Reba Meagher held this seat from 1994 until her resignation. Reba was quite popular until she became Health Minister and was blamed for everything wrong with the Hospital system.
Area
Cabramatta includes the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, St Johns Park, Mount Pritchard and Bonnyrigg.
History
Cabramatta was created in 1981 and has always been held by the Labor party. Labor's highest prmary vote was in 1981 where they got 74% in a 2-horse race. The Liberals highest primary vote was in 1988 (40.3%). Labor's lowest primary vote was 49.3 in 1999 (49.3%), which is when the Liberals also recorded their lowest primary vote of just 8.2%. During this election the Unity Party 13.8% with others on 19.4% including Markus Lambert who got 14.91% and ended up with 31.13% of the 2PP vote.

At the 2007 election Reba was re-elcted with 69.1% of the primary vote and 79% of the 2PP.

Candidates
Labor - Popular Fairfield Mayor Nick Lalich
Liberal - Dai Le - Partner of Markus Lambert who ran in 1999 as an independent and got 14.9% of the vote. Born in Vietnam. Former documentary producer for ABC radio national.
Greens - Fairfield council candidate Lindsay Langlands, Lindsay works in a women's crisis centre.
CDP - Doug Morrison - Contested Auburn at the 1995 state election and Parramatta in 2007.
Alasdair McDonald - Member of the Communist League. Contested Parramatta at the 2007 Federal Election.

Prediction
Labor retain. Nick Lalich's presonal vote should see the swing in Cabramatta not as high as it could be with an unknown. Having said that seats normally do swing quite highly at by-elections. Will swing to the Liberal party but not by the 29% needed for Labor to lose. Expect the Greens primary to grow to around 10%, maybe more.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Hubdub Predictions: Greens primary vote in Cabramatta

Hubdub Predictions: Cabramatta

Hubdub Predictions: Port Macquarie

Hubdub Prediction: Ryde



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Hubdub predictions.

I decided to join Hubdub. I'm in the process of creating questions so people can predict the outcome of upcoming NSW by-elections. If anybody decided to join up post your predictions of link to your userpage in the comments section. Here is my userboard.

Here's Lakemba

US Election: Obama ahead 348 - 163 according to Hubdub

Hubdub, a world news prediction/forecast website, has Obama ahead 388 electoral votes to 163.

Here is what their website says about their 'widget'

Hubdub's Election Map is different - it's not a poll. It's based on 51 underlying prediction markets that respond in real-time to breaking news, so the forecasts are continually updated.

Click on any state to see its interactive prediction market, or scroll down to make your predictions state-by-state.

The total Electoral Count is constantly updated based on the current standing in each state.


Here's the widget.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

ACT State Election: Canberra Times poll

Chief Minister Jon Stanhope's Labor Party is set to lose up to three ACT Legislative Assembly seats and Mr Stanhope will have to rely on the Greens' support to keep his job, according to an exclusive poll.

The Patterson-Canberra Times poll, conducted this week, points to the end of majority government on October 18 and finds the ACT Greens will be the big winner on election day, increasing their representation fourfold and getting to decide who takes power.



RegionLaborLiberalGreensOther

Molonglo - 7 seats

33% - 2.6 quotas29% - 2.3 quotas23% - 1.8 quotas16% - 1.3 quotas
Brindabella - 5 seats38% - 2.3 quoats37% - 2.2 quotas18% - 1.1 quotas7% - 0.4 quotas
Ginninderra - 5 seats34% - 2 quotas34% - 2 quotas16% - 1 quota16% - 1 quota

US Election: Intrade Prediction Markets

Intrade attempts to predict the outcome of the US Election based on Intrade state-by-state market prices.

Leaning allots each states electoral votes fully to the market leader.
Average allots each states in a weighting determined by the market.
For example: If in Wisconcin, which has 10 electoral votes, the Intrade market values are Democrat 60 - Republican 40, leaning allots all electoral to Democrat while average allots 6 electoral votes to Democrat and 4 to Republican.


Friday, October 3, 2008

Leichardt Council - Leichardt-Lillyfield Ward Booth Results

Boooth

Greens

Liberal

Labor

Kegworth

54.94%

21.51%

23.53%

Leichardt

51.19%

26.48%

22.35%

Leichardt Cent.

52.10%

24.73%

23.15%

Leichardt West.

51.84%

28.48%

19.68%

Lillyfield

50.71%

24.22%

25.05%

Postal

39.30%

35.80%

24.89%

Pre-Poll

44.07%

30.76%

25.15%

Overall

50.72%

25.98%

23.30%


Elected
1st: Rochelle Porteous - Greens
2nd: Vera-Ann Hanaford - Liberals
3rd: Alan Cinis - Greens

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