On to the 2PP, As Possum explains, using the 2004 distribution of preferences to work out the 2PP is a problem.
Yet what is peculiar here is how this plays out with the TPP numbers. As minor party voters have switched to the Coalition, the Coalition share of preference distributions of the remaining ‘others’ continues to increase. That’s the problem with using 2004 preference distributions, while they might generally get a pollster in the right ballbark figure on any given day within a few percent, they are usually wrong in terms of how the small compositional shifts (say 2-3%) between the voting support of all the parties plays out. Apparently, if we were to take these polls literally (which is a naughty thing that shouldn’t be done), 130 000 or so people changed their vote from the ALP to the Greens over the last week and none of them preferenced the ALP, even though greens prefs usually run about 75% to the ALP. That’s why the minor party noise does funny things to the TPP vote.