Monday, November 19, 2007

Nielsen Poll in Wentworth - 52-48 to Labor

According to the latest Nielsen poll published in the SMH, Malcolm Turnbull will lose his seat if the results were repeated on election day. Turnbull is on 45% of the primary vote with Labor candidate George Newhouse on 36% and the Greens' Susan Jarnason on 17%. Danielle Ecuyer and seven other candidates have only 2 per cent between them. Almost nine in 10 respondents planning to vote for the Greens or other minor candidates intended to give their preferences to Mr Newhouse.

The Wentworth poll used the names of the candidates as well as their parties, and was conducted from last Monday to Wednesday night. Therefore it did not measure the full impact of Wednesday's revelation in the Herald that Mr Newhouse's nomination might be invalid because of allegations he failed to resign in time from a part-time State Government post. The Liberal Party has threatened a challenge to force a by-election if Mr Newhouse wins. Mr Newhouse says he has advice showing his nomination is valid.

Nielsen's polling director, John Stirton, said the poll's 3 per cent margin of error and the tumult over Mr Newhouse meant the contest was too close to call. "This poll probably represents a best case for Labor with a week to go."

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