Sunday, December 23, 2007

Melbourne: How the citizens electoral council preferences pushed the Greens in front of the Libs

In the seat of Melbourne, the Greens polled less primary votes than the Liberals yet still ended up being there at the end for the 2PP vote. This is because they received a higher percentage of preferences than the Liberal candidate from everybody except Family First.
This is how is looked after primaries.
Candidate Party Votes % Swing (%)
REED, Andrew Citizens Electoral Council 586 0.67 +0.49
BANDT, Adam Australian Greens 19,967 22.80 +3.82
PEARSON, Georgia Family First 878 1.00 +0.12
MARSHALL, Will Socialist Equality Party 418 0.48 +0.48
DEL CIOTTO, Andrea Liberal 20,577 23.49 -1.60
WRIGHT, Tim Australian Democrats 1,255 1.43 -0.20
MCGREGOR, Kylie
539 0.62 +0.62
TANNER, LindsayRe-elected Australian Labor Party 43,363 49.51 -2.27

Below is how the preferences from each candidate flowed to the Labor, Liberal and Greens candidate.
Will Marshall (SEP): ALP 60 (14,35%), LIB 46 (11%), GRN 161 (38.52%)
Kylie McGregor (IND): ALP 116 (20.53%), LIB 66 (11.68%), 241 (42.65%)

At this stage it now looks like this
Lindsay Tanner (ALP) 43, 529 (49,71%)
Andrea Del Ciotto (LIB) 20, 689 (23.62%)
Adam Bandt (GRN) 20, 369 (23.26%)

Let's continue excluding candidates.

Andrew Reed (CEC) ALP 64 (9.61%), 41 (6.16%), GRN 422 (63.36%)

If we take a look at the votes now we can see the Greens are now in second place.
Lindsay Tanner (ALP) 43, 603 (49,78%)
Adam Bandt (GRN) 20, 791 (23.74%)
Andrea Del Ciotto (LIB) 20, 730 (23.67%)

Let's continue
Georgia Pearson (FFP): ALP 201 (18.82%), LIB 409 (38.3%), GRN 374 (35.02%)
Tim Wright (DEM): ALP 378 (25.63%), LIB 266 (18.03%), GRN 831 (56.34%)
Andrea Del Ciotto (LIB) ALP 3734 (17.44%) GRN 17,671 (82.56%)

This leaves us with a final 2PP of Labor 54.71% - Greens 45.29%. The 2 party preferred between Labor and Liberal from the 2004 election was 71.1% to 29.9% which means this seat has from very safe Labor (21.21%) to marginal Labor versus the Greens (4.71%).
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